- 1 Salzburg vs Mjallby: an own goal in the 90th+1 minute is the only thing separating them before the second leg
- 2 Salzburg: three European matches, no defeats, but the defence has already leaked
- 3 Mjallby: a domestic double last year, but just one goal in their last three European games
- 4 Europa League prediction Salzburg vs Mjallby
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes fast
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Salzburg vs Mjallby: an own goal in the 90th+1 minute is the only thing separating them before the second leg 
Salzburg take this tie to Austria thanks to a stoppage-time own goal. It is about the flimsiest lead a favourite could possibly drag home from a trip away.
The first leg was played on Thursday 20 August at Strandvallen in Hällevik. Mjallby lost 0-1 after Tom Pettersson turned the ball into his own net in the 90th+1 minute.
The return is set for Thursday 27 August at 19:00, local Austrian time, in Salzburg. The winner reaches the Europa League league phase, while the loser drops straight into the Conference League league phase.
A one-goal lead won like that tells you very little about the real balance of power. What it does tell you is that Mjallby failed to score at home in the best possible setup for the tie.
The Swedish club have scored in Europe in only one of their last three matches. Their attack has fallen off a cliff once the opposition level has risen.
Salzburg, by contrast, have been all over the place. The Austrian side scored three in Cyprus against Pafos, then managed just one in Sweden.
Both teams arrive with records that don’t quite match their current form. Mjallby are the reigning Swedish champions, yet they sit 11th in the Allsvenskan.
Salzburg remain Austria’s benchmark of the last decade, even if they have not fully reclaimed that old grip. Still, they have won four of their last six matches and have not lost any of them.
The Swedish calendar also works against the visitors. The Allsvenskan runs across the calendar year, which leaves Mjallby juggling a European playoff while still fighting to stay afloat domestically.
Tactically, this second leg comes down to whether the Swedes can strike first in Austria. Without an early goal, they will need two against a side that has been handling nights like this for 15 years.
Salzburg: three European matches, no defeats, but the defence has already leaked 
Salzburg entered the competition in the third qualifying round of the Europa League. They were handed Pafos, a side used to recent continental scraps.
The first leg in Salzburg finished with a narrow 1-0 win. A tiny cushion that left the tie wide open before the trip to Cyprus.
The return turned into chaos. Salzburg fell behind, fought back and somehow dragged it to 3-3 to go through 4-3 on aggregate.
Three goals scored on hostile ground showed real character. Three conceded in the same match also exposed some proper defensive shakiness.
The first leg in Sweden was much more cautious. One goal, an own goal, and a clean sheet from a tight, locked-down evening.
That leaves Salzburg with five goals scored and three conceded across three European games. All three goals they have let in came in one match.
They are still unbeaten on this run, with two wins and a draw. That fits into a broader spell of four wins from their last six matches.
Salzburg’s European pedigree also matters here. This is a club built on a decade of regular continental qualification.
Last season, though, there was a noticeable step back, with only third place in the Austrian Bundesliga. They are no longer the untouchable machine they once were.
So Salzburg are at home, one goal up, and carrying far more experience of this stage than Mjallby. The margin is thin, but the gap in know-how is obvious.
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Mjallby: a domestic double last year, but just one goal in their last three European games 
Mjallby completed a league-and-cup double last season in Sweden. That sent them into the second qualifying round of the Champions League.
They cleared the first hurdle without much fuss. A 3-0 home win over Lincoln Red Imps, then a 0-0 draw in Gibraltar for a 3-0 aggregate success.
The third round was a different story. Beaten 2-1 at home by Slovan Bratislava, the Swedes then lost 2-0 in Slovakia to go out 4-1 on aggregate.
The first leg against Salzburg confirmed the same problem in attack. No goal at home, and a defeat that arrived in stoppage time.
Their European tally now stands at four goals in five matches, with three of those coming in a single night against Lincoln Red Imps. Against proper opposition, the output has been close to nothing.
Across their last three continental matches, they have found the net only once and conceded five. The gap keeps widening as the standard rises.
Their domestic situation does not soften the picture, either. Reigning champions Mjallby are down in 11th place in the Allsvenskan, hovering near the relegation scrap.
They did at least land a major result just before the first leg. A 4-3 home win over league leaders Sirius, with 53% possession and six shots on target.
Olle Lindberg and Jacob Bergstrom both scored twice in that game. It was a reminder that this side can hurt teams when the conditions suit them.
The issue is doing it again in Europe, which they simply have not managed this summer. Two wins from their last seven games, with four defeats, says plenty about where they are right now.
Probable Salzburg lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Probable Mjallby lineup: Not announced at the time of publication.
Europa League prediction Salzburg vs Mjallby
Our prediction: Salzburg to win with a -1 handicap
Mjallby have scored only once in their last three European matches, while conceding five. That run covers Slovan Bratislava and Salzburg, the only serious opponents they have faced this summer.
The Swedish side failed to score at home in the first leg, when the set-up could hardly have been kinder. Now they have to do it in Austria, with the deficit to chase and four defeats in their last seven matches.
Salzburg showed in Cyprus that they can score three away from home when they need to. Back at home, and with the job now to finish the tie rather than manage it, they have every reason to come out firing.
Salzburg should win by at least two goals. That is the bet to back in this second leg.
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