- 1 Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: three points between them last season, two very different starts this time around
- 2 Atletico Madrid: four new faces, an Alvarez headache and a fragile attack
- 3 Villarreal: third in La Liga, one signing and a manager still getting to know his squad
- 4 La Liga prediction Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
- 5 Before anything else, a quick word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: three points between them last season, two very different starts this time around 
Three points separated Atletico Madrid and Villarreal at the end of the 2025-26 season, with the Yellow Submarine finishing third and the Colchoneros left behind in fourth. The two clubs meet again on Sunday 23 August at 17:00 at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano in round two of La Liga.
The Madrid side opened with a 2-0 win over promoted Malaga. It was a slog, settled only by late goals from Lee Kang-in and then Alex Baena.
Villarreal, by contrast, were dragged into an early scrap. Two down in Santander, they clawed their way back to 2-2 thanks to Pape Gueye and Nicolas Pepe.
Recent history between the sides makes this one harder to call. Back in May, when they last met, Villarreal thumped Atletico 5-1.
Over a longer stretch, though, the edge still sits with the Yellow side. Atletico have won only 17 of their last 50 meetings with this opponent in all competitions.
There is a counterpoint, and it matters: Atletico won 2-0 when the teams met at this ground last season. Villarreal have not taken all three points in the capital since August 2022.
So this one comes down to a clash between a poor overall record for the home side and a home advantage that has held firm. The likely line-ups suggest both managers are coming at this from very different angles.
Atletico Madrid: four new faces, an Alvarez headache and a fragile attack 
Fourth last season, 25 points behind champions Barcelona, Atletico spent the summer trying to add some depth to a squad widely viewed as too thin. Four signings have come in during the 2026 summer window: Cristian Romero, Morten Hjulmand, Lee Kang-in and Alejandro Grimaldo.
Two of them already had an impact against Malaga, with Lee Kang-in breaking the game open. That matters for a team that has spent too long leaning on the same old attacking patterns.
The Julian Alvarez situation is still hanging over the club, though. The Argentine has said he wants out this summer, Barcelona have shown interest, and Atletico keep insisting publicly that he is not for sale.
For Sunday, the picture is simple: he will not start. With Alexander Sorloth doubtful because of a muscle issue, the centre-forward spot looks like the most exposed part of Diego Simeone’s plan.
Alex Baena, Grimaldo and Marcos Llorente are all expected to get more minutes after the Malaga game. Giuliano Simeone is also pushing for a start after coming off the bench on the opening weekend.
Then there is the old reliable: home turf. The Metropolitano has not seen Villarreal win here in four years, and Thomas Lemar and Cristian Romero could both be added to the squad for this one.
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Villarreal: third in La Liga, one signing and a manager still getting to know his squad 
Third in La Liga in 2025-26, Villarreal will play in the league phase of the Champions League this season. Even so, they have approached the transfer market with unusual caution for a side heading into Europe.
Only one arrival has been confirmed so far, goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi, signed from RB Leipzig during the 2026 summer window. More moves are expected before the deadline, which tells you the squad is still a work in progress.
The biggest change is on the bench, where Inigo Perez is now in charge. His first competitive outing showed the scale of the job: two goals conceded early in Santander before a late response.
Pape Gueye and Nicolas Pepe rescued a point on the Cantabrian coast. The Ivorian, who scored on the opening weekend, should keep his place and remains a clear threat in transition.
Georges Mikautadze is expected to lead the line, while Gerard Moreno is tipped to come into the side ahead of Ayoze Perez. On paper, the Yellow attack still has plenty going for it.
One absence does complicate things: Alassane Diatta is serving a suspension and will miss the trip. Other than that, Inigo Perez has a full squad available, which was not a given after a shortened pre-season.
Atletico Madrid likely XI: Oblak; Llorente, Hancko, Le Normand, Grimaldo; Barrios, Koke; Simeone, Kang-in, Baena; Lookman
Villarreal likely XI: Junior; Mourino, Foyth, Veiga, Romero; Comesana, Gueye; Pepe, Moreno, Moleiro; Mikautadze
La Liga prediction Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid to win
The 5-1 hammering in May is still the headline number in this matchup, but it came at the back end of a season when Atletico had little left to play for. August looks different: Atletico won their opener, while Villarreal shipped two goals inside half an hour in Santander.
The squad situation also points one way. The Colchoneros have added four signings and can put out a settled side, while Villarreal are juggling one arrival, a suspension and a manager who only arrived this summer.
The venue settles the argument. Villarreal have not won in the Spanish capital since August 2022, and Atletico beat them 2-0 here last season.
Back Atletico Madrid to get the job done against Villarreal.
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