- 1 Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos: the 2025 champions roll into Canberra in tatters
- 2 Canberra Raiders: an attack back in gear and a squad taking shape
- 3 Brisbane Broncos: without Reece Walsh, the season really does tilt
- 4 NRL prediction Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos: the 2025 champions roll into Canberra in tatters 
Brisbane are the reigning champions and sit 16th. Their title defence has become a full-scale collapse, with the wooden spoon still mathematically on the table.
Canberra, meanwhile, got the job done last Saturday by beating Cronulla. The Eels’ shock win over the Cowboys straight after that reopened the race for eighth.
The maths is straightforward for the Raiders: 12th with 10 wins and 12 defeats, they need to beat Brisbane, win again in round 27 against the Cowboys and collect the two points from the round 26 bye. That would take them to 30 points, and keep the miracle alive.
GIO Stadium already hosted a huge clash between these two clubs last September in a qualifying final that still lives long in the memory. The stakes have changed. The needle has not.
Canberra have averaged 35 points across their last four home games. The ground has become a real stronghold for Ricky Stuart’s side.
The emotional weight will matter on Friday night too. Josh Papalii, who announced his retirement this week, will play his final home match in Raiders colours and starts at prop.
One stat sums up the recent story between the two coaches: Ricky Stuart has won eight of his last nine meetings with a Michael Maguire side.
Canberra Raiders: an attack back in gear and a squad taking shape 
The 35-point average across Canberra’s last four home outings did not come from nowhere. They spread the ball, move it quickly and pile on the pressure when the pitch is dry.
Jed Stuart is the perfect example of that attacking surge. The winger has scored five tries in his last five matches.
There is also a big boost in the back line with Simi Sasagi returning at centre after shoulder trouble. Savelio Tamale drops to the bench.
The pack takes a hit with Morgan Smithies ruled out after a head knock. Ata Mariota comes in at right second row.
Josh Papalii returns to the starting XIII at prop alongside Joseph Tapine. Corey Horsburgh, meanwhile, goes back to the bench.
Kaeo Weekes at fullback and the Ethan Strange-Ethan Sanders halves pairing stay unchanged. That stability helped Canberra get the win at Cronulla.
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Brisbane Broncos: without Reece Walsh, the season really does tilt 
Reece Walsh is done for the season after suffering a syndesmosis injury against the Warriors. Brisbane lose their spark plug at the worst possible time.
Hayze Perham gets the No.1 jersey for this trip. It will be just his fifth NRL appearance of the season, so this is a crash landing into the top job.
Ben Hunt is thrown in as starting halfback, with young Tom Duffy dropping to the bench. Adam Reynolds is not named at all.
The forwards remain the one genuine strength in this group, with Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan set to hold the middle. Jack Gosiewski will play his 100th NRL game on Friday.
One number, though, cuts across the rest of the picture: Brisbane have won four of their last six meetings with Canberra. They know how to make life awkward for the Raiders.
Still, those wins came with a full-strength side built around Walsh. Without him, without Reynolds and with an inexperienced fullback, the equation looks very different.
Probable Canberra Raiders team: Weekes; Stuart, Sasagi, Timoko, Savage; Strange, Sanders; Papalii, Pattie, Tapine, Hosking, Nicholson, Mariota. Interchange: Starling, Roddy, Horsburgh, Laurie.
Probable Brisbane Broncos team: Perham; Karapani, Staggs, Mariner, Anderson; Mam, Hunt; Willison, Walters, Haas, Hunt (J.), Riki, Carrigan. Interchange: Mozer, Tawha, Gosiewski, Semu.
NRL prediction Canberra Raiders vs Brisbane Broncos
Our pick: Canberra to win with a -12.5 handicap
Canberra have averaged 35 points in their last four home games at GIO Stadium, and on Friday they get their last real shot at the top 8. The motivation and the attacking output point the same way.
Brisbane arrive without Reece Walsh for the rest of the season, with a fullback who has played only four matches this year and a Ben Hunt reset as the starting halfback. A reshuffled spine against a side fighting for its season? That is about as bad as it gets.
The straight Raiders win is too short to bother with. The -12.5 handicap is the right angle: Canberra should win well, and the context gives them every chance to do it.
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