- 1 Casa Pia vs Benfica: fifty league games unbeaten, and only one club has beaten the Eagles
- 2 Casa Pia: Benfica’s bogey side is still a poor home team
- 3 Benfica: a record run at one end, a finishing problem at the other
- 4 Football Prediction Casa Pia vs Benfica
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Casa Pia vs Benfica: fifty league games unbeaten, and only one club has beaten the Eagles 
Benfica have not lost a Primeira Liga match in 50 rounds. The last side to beat them was Casa Pia.
That was on matchday 19 of the 2024-25 season, in a 3-1 win. Monday night’s meeting takes place in exactly the same venue, the municipal stadium in Rio Maior.
The two teams close out round two of the Portuguese league, with kick-off at 20:15. Neither has got its season going.
Benfica dropped two points at home against promoted Academico de Viseu (2-2). Casa Pia went down in Funchal to Maritimo (1-0).
Marco Silva took over from Jose Mourinho in June, after Mourinho left for Real Madrid. His first league outing in the Lisbon dugout ended in frustration.
Across the touchline, Filipe Coelho is also making a fresh start. The coach, who has worked with Chelsea U21s and in Strasbourg’s backroom team, is leading a senior side for the first time.
On paper, the gap looks huge. On recent meetings, not so much.
Casa Pia have not lost in the last three between the clubs: one win and two draws. That is what makes this one a bit trickier than it looks.
Casa Pia: Benfica’s bogey side is still a poor home team 
Two wins in 17 home games last season. Casa Pia’s record in Rio Maior was among the three worst in the Portuguese top flight.
Six draws and nine defeats made up the rest, for a total of 15 points at home across the campaign. Only Tondela and AVS, both now relegated, were worse on their own ground.
The club finished 16th and had to survive a play-off against Torreense to stay up. Alvaro Pacheco was gone soon after that narrow escape.
Filipe Coelho inherited the mess and opened with a defeat. Against Maritimo, his side had more of the ball but did next to nothing with it.
Raphael Guzzo punished the Gansos in the 61st minute, and that was that. The loss ended a four-match unbeaten run that had started late last season.
Two players will face their old club on Monday. Keeper Andre Gomes and striker Henrique Araujo both left Benfica this summer to join Casa Pia.
Both will be pushing to keep their places in the starting XI. That adds a bit of spice to the hosts’ night.
Joao Goulart went off injured in Funchal. If the defender is not fit, David Sousa will partner Kaly in the middle of the back line.
The last three meetings with Benfica tell a different story: one win and two draws, with scores of 1-1 and 2-2.
Casa Pia also finished last season unbeaten in their final two league matches. They can scrap for points when the pressure starts to bite.
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Benfica: a record run at one end, a finishing problem at the other 
Fifty Primeira Liga matches unbeaten. That is the big selling point for the Eagles going into this trip.
The issue has a different name: draws. Eleven of them last season cost the club the title, leaving them third despite going the whole campaign without a defeat.
The restart followed a similar script. Vangelis Pavlidis put Benfica ahead against Academico de Viseu, only for the Lisbon side to be pegged back twice.
The Greek remains the main man up front. He scored 20 league goals last season, and has six in his last four appearances in all competitions.
In Europe, things are running far more smoothly. The 1-1 draw in Edinburgh against Hearts sealed progression with an aggregate 7-2 win and set up a Europa League play-off against Aarhus.
Marco Silva now has to manage the fatigue from that trip to Scotland. He is expected to freshen up his attack for Rio Maior.
Prestianni keeps his spot out wide after a goal and an assist in the last outing. Captain Fredrik Aursnes will be assessed before kick-off, and a start looks unlikely given his lack of game time.
Antonio Silva and Amar Dedic left the club this summer. Alexander Bah has held down the right flank since their departure.
The schedule is not giving Benfica any breathing room. The Europa League play-off against Aarhus comes straight after this trip to Rio Maior.
Even so, the bookmakers still give Benfica an 82% chance of winning on Monday night. On paper, the gap is clear enough.
Likely Casa Pia XI: Gomes ; Geraldes, Kaly, Sousa, Conte ; Perez, Ofori ; Rochinha, Gabi, Prieto ; Araujo
Likely Benfica XI: Trubin ; Bah, Araujo, Lenglet, Dahl ; Barreiro, Rios ; Schjelderup, Rafa Silva, Prestianni ; Pavlidis
Football Prediction Casa Pia vs Benfica
Our prediction: Benfica to win with -1.5 handicap (odds 1.72 – -139 – 18/25)
The odds make Benfica about an 82% shot, which rules out the straight win bet as poor value. The handicap line is the only one worth taking here.
The gulf in quality is real, and the numbers back it up. Casa Pia won only twice at home in 17 attempts last season, and they are coming off a defeat to Maritimo in Funchal.
Benfica put seven past Hearts over two legs just a few days ago. The attack is there, and so is the finishing when Pavlidis is fed properly.
Marco Silva needs a strong response after dropping two points on opening weekend. Benfica win in Rio Maior by at least two goals.
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