A bracket that history says will break
Eleven of the twenty teams ranked in the preseason AP top 10 across the past two seasons never reached the College Football Playoff. Last year three of the top four missed out. In 2024 the preseason No. 10, Florida State, finished 2-10.
Alex Kirshner knows all of this. He wrote his 2026 bracket anyway, and said up front that at least one of his twelve picks will flop. Opta’s TRACR model, which adjusts for conference strength and roster quality, places nine of his twelve inside its own top 12.
He also owned last year’s miss. He picked Oregon as the great team that would be left outside. The Ducks finished as the No. 5 seed.
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Ohio State stand apart
The Buckeyes sit first in TRACR and first on Kirshner’s board. He puts their playoff odds closer to 90% than 70%, the only team in the country he rates that highly. Jeremiah Smith is the best player in college football. Julian Sayin is the most proven elite quarterback. A defence that lost three of the top eleven picks in the NFL Draft does not change that maths.
Georgia take the second bye at TRACR rank 6. Kirby Smart has not finished outside the top nine on Selection Sunday since 2016, his first season in charge. Gunner Stockton will not win a Heisman, but his 82.9% well-thrown ball rate ranked ninth among power conference quarterbacks last season. Indiana and Texas Tech complete the byes, with Texas Tech leaning on edge rushers Trey White and Adam Trick, who produced 42 and 53 pressures respectively a year ago.
Army as the outsider
The Group of 6 spot is where Kirshner gambles hardest. Army sit 97th in TRACR. Four of the American Conference’s best teams from last season lost head coaches to Power-4 jobs. James Madison lost its coach too. Boise State are winning at a .680 clip this decade after .868 in the 2000s and .805 in the 2010s.
Navy are the media favourite after going 11-2, but they lost Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza from one of the best skill cores in program history. Army return quarterback Cade Hellums and four offensive line starters, and they lost to Navy by a single point. Running back Godspower Nwawuihe put 171 yards on UConn in the Fenway Bowl.
Miami, Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, USC, Michigan and LSU fill out the field. Whether any of it survives September is a separate question.
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