- 1 Tiafoe vs Choinski: the favourite under pressure against grass-court breakthrough man
- 2 Tiafoe finally looks like the player he was chasing
- 3 Choinski is no longer just a rank outsider
- 4 Tennis prediction Tiafoe vs Choinski
- 5 First, a word on our picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals
Tiafoe vs Choinski: the favourite under pressure against grass-court breakthrough man 
Wimbledon loves a story nobody quite saw coming. Every year, a few players use the London grass to level up fast. Jan Choinski is one of them. Long stuck in the background, the Brit now finds himself in a match he probably never imagined a few weeks ago: a shot at a resurgent Frances Tiafoe, who looks back near the top of his game.
On paper, the American is a clear favourite. Ranking, experience and recent results all point his way. But this second-round clash could be a lot tougher than the name on the draw suggests. Tiafoe and Choinski have never met on tour, and this first meeting brings together two big servers who can turn every set into a grind.
Tiafoe finally looks like the player he was chasing 
For a long time, Frances Tiafoe looked like a man capable of beating anybody… and then completely missing the mark the next day. That inconsistency feels like a thing of the past, though Choinski could still make life awkward for him here. Lately, the American has been playing with far more control, and the results have followed.
His grass-court spring has lifted him back into the world top 20. A quarter-finalist in Stuttgart and champion in Halle, he arrives in London with eight wins from his last nine matches on the surface. Few players come to Wimbledon with that kind of momentum.
His serve remains one of his biggest weapons. More than 11 aces per match, close to three-quarters of his service games won, and a first delivery that keeps handing him cheap points. But it would be wrong to reduce Tiafoe to raw power. This season, he is taking longer rallies in his stride, handling pressure better, and no longer looking rattled when the script starts to wobble.
The numbers back it up. Against players ranked outside the top 50, he owns a brutal 20-4 record this year. Even so, his matches are not always routine. At Grand Slam level, he often lets opponents settle in, which is why so many of his matches sail past the 40-game mark.
Choinski is no longer just a rank outsider 
Only a few months ago, Jan Choinski was in a rough spot. Injuries had stalled his progress and even forced him to pull out of Roland Garros qualifying. Plenty would have written the season off there. He waited for the grass to come around and used it to restart his career.
Since the beginning of this swing, the Brit has played with no fear. His Eastbourne quarter-final took him into the world top 100 for the first time, before a controlled opening win at Wimbledon against Vit Kopriva. This is no one-week blur. He is building belief every time he steps on court.
His main weapon is still the serve. Choinski defends his delivery superbly, winning close to 79% of his service games, with a first ball that does serious damage. Even against higher-ranked opponents, he often stays in touch by leaning on that strength.
The task ahead is huge. He has never beaten a top-20 player, and his only previous appearance in the second round of a Grand Slam ended right here at Wimbledon in 2023 against Hubert Hurkacz. But the man walking out onto Centre Court now is not quite the same player. He serves better, moves with more confidence, and Choinski is probably playing the best tennis of his career.
on MathODDS
Tennis prediction Tiafoe vs Choinski
Jan Choinski to win at least one set
Frances Tiafoe has the tools to justify the favourite tag and keep rolling in London. His level is higher, and so is his big-match experience. But all signs point to this not being a stroll.
Choinski is in the best spell of his career, his serve is firing, and he gives up very little behind his first delivery. Against a Tiafoe who often wins through persistence rather than by blowing opponents away, Choinski looks capable of taking at least one set. One well-timed tie-break or a brief dip from the American could be enough to flip a set before the favourite gradually takes back control.
in your pocket.
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Photo credits: ATP
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