- 1 Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros: Houston are desperate to avoid the sweep
- 2 Toronto are rolling at home
- 3 Houston are leaning on Yordan Alvarez
- 4 MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros
- 5 First, a word on our picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros: Houston are desperate to avoid the sweep 
It all comes down to game three of a tight series in Toronto on Wednesday, June 24. The Blue Jays and Astros are level after Toronto won 4-2 and Houston hit back with a 9-7 result. For Houston, the job is simple: respond now or head back across the border with two losses. Two teams that know each other well, a Rogers Centre that never seems to sit still, and a game that could turn on one swing. Feels like a trap game.
Toronto are rolling at home 
The Blue Jays are in good shape. Strong at home, they’ve already taken the opening game of the series and know how to cash in when they’re fancied: this season, they’ve won 58,5% of the games when they’ve been moneyline favourites. That should give them plenty of confidence.
Offensively, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still the main man, with steady support from Ernie Clement and the power of Kazuma Okamoto. George Springer and Daulton Varsho give the lineup plenty of balance. On the mound, probable starter Trey Yesavage offers reassurance, especially with his miserly ERA against. Up against a struggling Burrows, the pitching edge is clearly with the Blue Jays.
Houston are leaning on Yordan Alvarez 
The Astros have one huge weapon in their lineup: Yordan Alvarez is in outrageous form. The slugger is posting a strong average that would worry any pitcher. Around him, Christian Walker brings the power, while Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Pena keep things ticking over. The issue is that Jose Altuve is going through a tougher spell and this offence is leaning heavily on Alvarez to do the heavy lifting.
Where it really gets messy is on the mound. Houston’s probable starter, Mike Burrows, carries a worrying 3-8 record. In other words, Toronto’s hitters will fancy their chances. If the Astros are going to get out of this alive, their staff has to hold firm and Alvarez needs another big night.
on MathODDS
MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros
Toronto Blue Jays to win
Everything points to Toronto. The Blue Jays are at home, lead the series, and have the more reliable starter by some distance. With Burrows on the other side and a weaker-looking pitching matchup, Vladdy Jr.’s lineup has every chance to do damage early. Toronto’s record as favourites this season backs that up.
That said, Houston still have bite as long as Alvarez is in this kind of mood, and the Astros have shown they can spring a surprise when written off, winning 49% of their games in the underdog role. But in this one, with home advantage and a clear pitching mismatch, the Blue Jays are the call. And with both attacks in the mix, a high-scoring night wouldn’t be a shock either.
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