- 1 Cincinnati – Washington Nationals : A tactical stand-off is looming!
- 2 Time for some defensive discipline
- 3 Washington up against the home wall
- 4 MLB Pick Cincinnati vs Washington Nationals
- 5 First, a word on our picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals
Cincinnati – Washington Nationals : A tactical stand-off is looming! 
The visitors from the capital have owned the first two meetings, first hammering the Cincinnati Reds 10-4 before edging them in extra innings, 8-7. After that run-fest, the third act at the Cincinnati Reds’ ballpark points to something very different: a game under 8.5 runs. The reason is simple enough. Both clubs are bringing real quality to the mound. Washington send out Foster Griffin, who carries a 2.12 ERA, while the Cincinnati Reds counter with Chase Burns and his sparkling 2.11 ERA.
Time for some defensive discipline 
Compared with the shaky arms of Mikolas, Singer or Irvin, this rotation cranks up the standard immediately. The Cincinnati Reds have not managed to shut down the opposition yet, and even blew a comfortable lead in the second game. Their bats, led by Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart, can still do damage at home, but this is no longer about trading blows. It is about setting the tone. Handing the ball to Burns gives the Cincinnati Reds a much-needed chance to settle early and avoid turning this into a desperate chase. They cannot afford to lose control of the pace again.
Washington up against the home wall 
The visitors are flying, boosted by six home runs in the opener and plenty of fight. But keeping that kind of pace going against the jewel of the Cincinnati Reds rotation is a fantasy. The road team could well take a colder, more pragmatic route to close out the series, especially if Griffin keeps the Cincinnati bats quiet and drains the noise out of the ballpark. And even though this park has a long history of helping hitters, the near-match WHIP numbers from both starters point to a sharp drop-off for both offenses.
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MLB Pick Cincinnati vs Washington Nationals
Under 8.5 runs in the game
Talking yourself into another scoreboard shootout would mean ignoring the level of pitching on show here. Burned by two setbacks already, the Cincinnati Reds need order and control first and foremost. A composed start from Burns would give them the base they need for a tactical chess match. The Reds must shut the visitors down early if they want to come through this. A tight finish like 4-3, 4-2 or 5-3, possibly favouring the home side, fits the shape of this pitching duel perfectly. Backing a game kept firmly in check is clearly the smart angle today!
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