Ottawa Senators – Buffalo Sabres: a finish with the pressure dialled right up! 
The end of the regular season is creeping closer, and everybody’s goals are getting clearer by the day. This one sums up the stakes perfectly: the home side are clinging on to their tiny hopes of making it, while the visitors have got their eyes firmly on top spot in the East.
Who cashes in tonight? Let’s sift through the numbers and the recent history to find the best angle on this one.
The Senators are on the ropes 
The Canadian outfit come in low on confidence, buried under a three-game losing streak after falling to Pittsburgh on penalties, then losing to Tampa Bay and Florida. Down in 10th in the Eastern Conference, they’re still only two points off the prize. On virtual points dropped, Travis Green’s side would even sit in that precious top eight.
Their lifeline is the Canadian Tire Centre. It’s a real fortress. Ottawa have picked up points in nine of their last 10 there, with just one regulation defeat in that run, and that came by the narrowest of margins against Montreal. In front of their own crowd, they do a decent job of locking things down at the back, conceding just 2.71 goals per game, third-best in the conference, while still chipping in with 3.20 at the other end. Jake Sanderson’s return on defence is a huge boost, offsetting the confirmed absences of Dennis Gilbert and Nick Jensen for the rest of the regular season, not to mention Thomas Chabot, who’s out until mid-May.
Buffalo Sabres are eyeing the crown 
It’s a completely different story in New York state. The Sabres are racking up points for fun, having taken something from 16 of their last 18 games, with only four small blips since the end of February. Fresh off a 4-3 win over the Islanders, they’ve grabbed back second place in the East, and they’re nipping at the Hurricanes’ heels on points percentage.
Away from home, though, the Sabres turn into a proper wrecking ball: 14 straight road trips with at least a point in the bag, and only two defeats in extra time in that spell. Their away firepower has been brutal, too, with at least four goals in five of their last six on the road, and a 3.38 goals-per-game average away from home. As for the squad, Swedish forward Noah Östlund is back, Jordan Greenway has recently skated again, Justin Danforth is expected around mid-April, and Jiří Kulich will miss the run-in.
NHL Pick Ottawa Senators vs Buffalo Sabres
Draw or Buffalo Sabres win
The recent record between these two makes grim reading for Ottawa fans. Buffalo have simply cleaned up in the last seven head-to-head meetings, winning five in regulation and two in overtime.
Add that to Buffalo’s ridiculous away record — that monster run of 14 straight road games without leaving empty-handed — and this looks like a mountain too far for a home side that are under the cosh but all over the place right now. Backing the Sabres to avoid defeat in 60 minutes looks like the smart cover, and the numbers back it up.
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