Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder – Free NBA Prediction and Picks – January 15, 2026

Houston Rockets – Oklahoma City Thunder: heavyweight clash out West

Second meeting of the season between the Rockets and the Thunder, after an incredible opener to the 2025-26 campaign. Since late October the Thunder have stamped themselves as the clear conference leader while the Rockets have hit more trouble. Expect a proper game between two teams built for the Playoffs.

Houston Rockets: bank on inside power

The Rockets don’t arrive in great shape, with just two wins from their last six. The win over Chicago (119-113) stopped the bleeding, but defeats to Sacramento (98-111) and Portland (105-111) exposed a lack of consistency, especially in crunch time.

Still, Houston have solid arguments. The roster should be complete, with Alperen Şengün and Kevin Durant front and centre. Offensively they’re one of the most efficient teams in the league (117,9 points per game), able to score without forcing thanks to a well-oiled offense. If the outside shooting can improve, their dominance on the boards — especially offensive rebounds (16,4 per game, far ahead of any team this season) — gives the Rockets extra possessions. Plus, they’re at home, where they’ve won twelve of their 14 games, an excellent record.

Oklahoma City Thunder: asserting dominance

Everything’s going right for the Thunder. The rough patch is behind them; Mark Daigneault’s men have strung together four straight wins, the latest a convincing 119-98 beatdown of the Spurs. This season their offense (second in the league at 121,6 ppg) and defense (best in the league at 108,1 points allowed) are elite. The only gripe: some sequences lack flow, moments when everyone’s waiting for a solo outburst from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams.

Against Houston, OKC must be careful about everything that happens in the paint. Without Isaiah Hartenstein, the Thunder struggle more on the glass and in rim protection — exactly the Rockets’ strength, who win games through offensive rebounds and constant paint presence. If OKC can limit damage there, their chances of extending the win streak improve a lot.

NBA Prediction Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Under 223,5 points

On paper, Oklahoma City starts with a slight edge. But look closer and Houston can cause real headaches. Frontcourt power, defensive discipline and efficiency on second chances can unsettle a Thunder that’s sometimes vulnerable there. In a game likely decided by intensity and handling quiet stretches, the Rockets can make the reigning champs sweat. In front of their crowd they could turn this into a bruising arm-wrestle where every possession counts.

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