- 1 Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: the league’s stingiest defense meets a Heat team giving up 122
- 2 Miami Heat: one of the fastest paces in the league and a 1-3 home record
- 3 Detroit Pistons: 4-1 on the road, and Jenkins filling the gaps
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: the league’s stingiest defense meets a Heat team giving up 122 
Detroit allow 101.8 points a game, the lowest figure in the NBA. Miami allow more than 122. Those two numbers meet on Saturday, November 14, at 8pm ET in Miami, with NBA TV carrying the game.
They’ve already met once. The Pistons won 128-111 in Miami in October, with John Collins scoring 23 and Paul Reed pulling down 11 rebounds, on a night when Giannis Antetokounmpo had 36 for the Heat and still lost by 17.
Detroit are 7-3 and top of the Central after beating Washington 122-111 on Monday. Miami are 4-6, coming off a 114-108 win in Sacramento, and finish a western road trip in Utah on Tuesday before two home games in two nights.
That second detail is the one I keep coming back to. The Heat host Cleveland on Friday night and Detroit on Saturday, the back half of a back-to-back. The Pistons play in Washington on Thursday and have Friday off.
No line had been posted at the time of writing. On the numbers, the rest and the first meeting, Detroit should be the side.
The standings gap is already three games. Detroit lead the Central by 2.5, while Miami are second in the Southeast, two games behind Atlanta, and have won back-to-back games only once this season.
Miami Heat: one of the fastest paces in the league and a 1-3 home record 
Miami score roughly 116 points a game and concede more than 122. Their pace ranks among the fastest in the league, which works when the shots fall and hands opponents extra possessions when they don’t.
Results have swung by 20 points in both directions. The Heat put up 145 on Indiana and won by 20, then lost 120-100 at Golden State. They beat the Clippers 117-116 in overtime, with Bam Adebayo scoring 35, and lost 138-117 to the Lakers two nights earlier.
Antetokounmpo has carried the frontcourt. He had 29 points and 14 rebounds in Sacramento, 31 against Indiana and 18 rebounds in two different games. He’s led Miami in rebounds in eight of the ten games so far.
Miami lost their first three home games, to Minnesota, Detroit and Dallas, and their only win at home came against Indiana. A 1-3 record in their own building is a strange start for a team with this much size.
Davion Mitchell has led Miami in assists in seven of the ten games, with 11 in three of them, and scored 22 in both the loss at Golden State and the loss in Charlotte.
The Friday game against Cleveland will matter for Saturday. If Adebayo and Antetokounmpo log heavy minutes in a close one, the Heat will be asking a lot of the same two players against the best defense in basketball 24 hours later.
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Detroit Pistons: 4-1 on the road, and Jenkins filling the gaps 
The Pistons have been better away from home than at Little Caesars Arena. They’re 4-1 on the road, with wins in Miami, Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Charlotte, and their only road defeat came 111-97 at the Knicks.
Daniss Jenkins has given them a second creator. He scored a career-high 31 in Sunday’s 121-116 loss to the Lakers, then moved into the starting lineup on Monday and had 22 points and eight assists against Washington, 13 of them in the third quarter.
Detroit shot 63.2% from the floor in the third quarter on Monday and stretched a 10-point halftime lead to 103-87. Cade Cunningham picked up his fifth foul in the period and didn’t return until midway through the fourth, and the Pistons still led 115-99.
Anthony Davis scored 44 against them on Monday, 30 of them in the first half. Davis did it against a Wizards roster where the bench added a single point before the break. Miami’s rotation, with Mitchell, Andrew Wiggins and Bobby Portis behind the two bigs, gives Detroit more to cover.
Cunningham has led Detroit in assists in seven of ten games and scored 30 against Charlotte, 33 in Charlotte and 26 in Philadelphia, all of them wins. The offense around him is modest, 111.1 points a game before Monday, and the Pistons haven’t needed more than that because opponents have averaged 101.8.
Jalen Duren and Isaiah Joe have been listed unavailable. Duren’s absence matters most on the glass, and Ausar Thompson has picked up the slack with 17 rebounds against Philadelphia and 11 against the Lakers.
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Detroit Pistons: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons
Our prediction: Detroit Pistons to win (moneyline)
Detroit’s defense, Detroit’s rest and Detroit’s 17-point win in this building in October all point the same way. Miami are allowing 122 a game and will be on the second night of a back-to-back against a team that’s 4-1 on the road.
The Heat do have Antetokounmpo, and a player who puts up 36 against this defense can’t be dismissed. If Duren is still out, Miami’s size could control the boards. I’d still rather be on the team that has held four opponents under 95 points this season.
We’d only play the Pistons at 1.45 or bigger. If they’re priced shorter than that, Detroit on the spread is the alternative.
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