Hamburg – Leverkusen: opposite trajectories collide at the Volksparkstadion 
Tuesday night, Hamburg host Leverkusen in a game that matters as much for survival as it does for the top‑four race. HSV are floating just above the drop zone, while Bayer are clinging to the European spots after getting hammered by Stuttgart.
Hamburg: solid at home, fragile everywhere else 
HSV are walking a tightrope. Thirteenth with 16 points, they’re four ahead of St. Pauli… but their neighbours have a game in hand, as does Bremen just above them.
On Saturday, Hamburg led 1‑0 against Freiburg before being reduced to ten and throwing it all away. Frustrating loss. Almost avoidable.
Merlin Polzin hasn’t faced Leverkusen since 2018, and the memories aren’t great: two defeats that season, and four losses in the last five meetings.
Recent form doesn’t help: two defeats and a draw in the last three, three goals scored, seven conceded.
But at home it’s a different story. The Volksparkstadion has found some pride: four wins in the last seven, just one defeat.
Not an impregnable fortress, but a pitch where Hamburg knows how to scrap.
Leverkusen: a setback, but a team that travels well 
Leverkusen took a pasting on Saturday: 4-0 down at half‑time in Stuttgart, couldn’t respond, and the defending looked worrying.
The numbers are ugly: four big chances conceded, 2.6 xG against — one of their worst defensive showings this season.
Still, Bayer remain fourth, level with Leipzig. But pressure’s coming: Hoffenheim are only two points back, Frankfurt three. And Leverkusen have a game more than everyone else.
Kasper Hjulmand knows they must tighten up at the back: three of the last five matches with at least two goals conceded — that’s not sustainable if you’re chasing the Champions League.
The upside is their away form: five wins in the last six trips, one defeat.
Leverkusen are at their most dangerous on the road.
Probable lineups
Hamburg:
Fernandes ; Capaldo, Vuskovic, Ramos ; Jatta, Lokonga, Remberg, Muheim ; Vieira, Downs, Dompe
Bayer Leverkusen:
Flekken ; Quansah, Andrich, Belocian ; Arthur, Tillman, Fernandez, Grimaldo ; Hofmann, Tella ; Terrier
Key points
- Hamburg have won 4 of their last 7 home matches.
- Leverkusen come off a heavy 4-1 defeat at Stuttgart.
- Bayer have won 5 of their last 6 away trips.
- Both teams have conceded a lot of goals recently.
Football Prediction Hamburg vs Leverkusen
Both teams to score
Hamburg are still hard to handle at home, and Leverkusen were defensively shambolic last time out. Both have the attacking firepower to score, and neither looks like keeping a clean sheet.
First — a word about our predictions
- What we publish on Mathodds are analyses, nothing more. We share an opinion, a snapshot of the moment, never a guarantee. Sport is unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a freak goal… and the script flips.
- Let’s be clear: there’s no risk‑free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing really is. Yes, you can lose. It’s inevitable at some point.
- Best to be reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Don’t touch money you need to live on. And don’t chase losses — it rarely ends well.
- A bet should stay a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking over your life, annoying you or putting you under pressure, take a break. If needed, talk to a specialised organisation. That’s what they’re for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and it won’t disappear, even with the best analysis in the world.
- Essential reminder: betting is forbidden to minors and must comply with your country’s laws. Gambling can spiral (money loss, family tensions, addiction). Need Help? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. In the UK? Visit https://www.gambleaware.org/https://www.gambleaware.org/.
No commitment from us
Our predictions don’t form a contract. They have no legal weight. Plain and simple: you can’t rely on them to claim anything if a bet loses.
Info that changes
A prediction is always based on what we know when we write it. In the meantime, a lineup (like Leverkusen’s) can change, a player gets injured, the weather turns… and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We can’t be held responsible for that.
Your role
Before betting, check that wagering is legal where you live. If it’s not, that’s on you, not us.
Responsible gambling first
We won’t repeat it enough: gamble in moderation. If you’re struggling to keep control, don’t wait to get help. We can’t be responsible for compulsive or excessive use of the site’s information.
Legal age
Mathodds’s content is for adults only. By browsing here you confirm you’re of legal age to gamble.
About the visuals
Images and logos on Mathodds, including those of Hamburg and Bayer Leverkusen linked to the Bundesliga, are only here to illustrate our articles. They don’t mean we have an official link with any federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them.
These rights belong to the original creators. If, despite our vigilance, an image causes an issue, contact us: it will be removed without delay.
Our only aim with these images is to make reading more pleasant. Nothing more. No commercial gain, no claiming others’ work.
Leave a Reply