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Slovenia vs Switzerland Nations League prediction

Slovenia vs Switzerland – Free Football Prediction – Nov 13

Slovenia vs Switzerland: one Swiss point in Maribor settles Group B1 Nations League

Switzerland need a point on Friday to win League B Group 1 and go up to League A with a game to spare. They’ve won all four group matches, scored 11 and conceded one, and the only side left with a mathematical chance of catching them is the one they face in Maribor.

The game was meant to be at Stožice in Ljubljana, but the poor state of the pitch there forced a move to Ljudski vrt, confirmed on 26 October. Kick-off is 19:45 UK time on Friday 13 November.

Slovenia are second on seven points with a 5-3 goal record, Scotland third on four and North Macedonia bottom without a point. Second place carries a play-off route to League A, and Slovenia’s place in League B is already safe, so the pressure on Boštjan Cesar’s side is about the ceiling rather than the floor.

The first meeting in Lucerne on 3 October was closer than the table suggests. Vipotnik scored after two minutes, the earliest goal Switzerland have conceded under Murat Yakin, before Janža’s own goal on ten minutes, after an Oblak error, and Ndoye’s 38th-minute strike turned it round. Switzerland had around 70 per cent of the ball and won 2-1.

That was the 12th meeting between the two countries and Switzerland’s eighth win. Slovenia’s best recent result in the fixture came in October 2025, a 0-0 at home in World Cup qualifying, a month after losing 3-0 in Switzerland.

On Monday Slovenia go to Skopje and Switzerland finish at home to Scotland in St. Gallen. I’d expect the Swiss to want this done on Friday rather than leave it to the last night.

Slovenia: no Šeško, and two defenders reported banned Slovenia

Benjamin Šeško is the big absence. The Manchester United striker has a shin injury and is likely to miss the rest of the year, and Jure Balkovec is also injured. Five players in all were forced out of Cesar’s plans by injury before the 26-man squad was named on 3 November.

The back line may need rebuilding. Slovenian reports say David Zec and Janža are suspended on yellow-card accumulation after both were booked in Lucerne, although that hadn’t been confirmed by UEFA at the time of writing. Both started in the back five that night, and Atalanta’s Relja Obrić, 20, has been called up for the first time.

The results have been decent. A 0-0 with Scotland in Ljubljana owed a lot to Oblak, with Scotland taking 17 shots to Slovenia’s four, then Lovrić and Matko scored in a 2-0 win over North Macedonia. After the defeat in Lucerne, Slovenia won 2-1 at Hampden with goals from Matko on 57 minutes and Šturm on 71.

Šturm of Slavia Prague and Matko of Újpest are the players in form. Matko has two goals in the campaign and Šturm two assists, while Vipotnik, who scored in Lucerne, has lost his starting place at Swansea.

Across their last six internationals Slovenia have won two, drawn two and lost two, with seven goals scored and seven conceded. Their June friendlies brought a 1-1 with Cyprus and a 2-1 defeat in Croatia decided in stoppage time. The FIFA ranking gap is wide: Switzerland 14th, Slovenia 56th.

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Switzerland: four wins, one goal conceded, and Xhaka back with the armband Switzerland

Yakin’s side won 3-0 in Skopje, 3-0 at Hampden, 2-1 against Slovenia and 3-0 at home to North Macedonia. Zeki Amdouni has three of the 11 goals, with Freuler, Rodríguez, Elvedi, Ndoye, Rieder and Manzambi also on the scoresheet.

Xhaka and Embolo are back. Both missed the September and October games over forged Covid certificates, and the federation hasn’t imposed any further sanction. Xhaka returns as captain, taking the armband back from Akanji, who wore it for the last four matches.

Amdouni is carrying a knock, and Swiss reports expect Embolo to start up front in his place. Rodríguez, Zakaria and Vargas are all back after injury layoffs, and goalkeeper Silas Huber of FC Zürich and Samuel Ballet are the two uncapped names in the 28.

The summer showed what this group can do at the top level. Switzerland reached the World Cup quarter-finals, beating Canada 2-1 in the group, Algeria 2-0 in the round of 32 and Colombia on penalties after a 0-0, before losing 3-1 to Argentina after extra time in Kansas City, with Ndoye scoring on 67 minutes.

Ndoye of Nottingham Forest has three assists in the campaign to go with his goal in Lucerne, his 11th for his country. Switzerland average 17.5 shots and 69 per cent possession per game in this group, against Slovenia’s 9.8 shots and 49 per cent.

Probable lineup Slovenia: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Switzerland: Not announced at time of publication

Free Football Prediction: Slovenia vs Switzerland

Our prediction: Switzerland to win (around 1.63)

Switzerland have won all four group games, conceded once and get Xhaka and Embolo back for this trip. Slovenia are without Šeško and Balkovec, and may also lose Zec and Janža from the back five that kept the Swiss to 2-1 in Lucerne.

Slovenia’s case rests on the 0-0 against Switzerland in October 2025 and on Oblak, whose display kept Scotland out in the 0-0 in September. That’s a real argument, but a side averaging 9.8 shots a game against one averaging 17.5 needs its goalkeeper to have the night of his life, and Oblak’s error in Lucerne cost a goal.

The Swiss win is priced at around 1.63, and I think that’s fair value for a team that has won three of its four group games by three clear goals. Switzerland to win is our pick.

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    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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