- 1 Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders: a 2-5-0 home record against Sorokin’s .909
- 2 Los Angeles Kings: a 63% penalty kill and Kuemper at .885
- 3 New York Islanders: Schaefer and Horvat on 16 points each
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders: a 2-5-0 home record against Sorokin’s .909 
Ilya Sorokin stopped 45 shots against New Jersey on Saturday and the Islanders still lost, 5-4 in overtime, after giving up a two-goal lead in the third period. Jack Hughes ended it 1:18 into the extra period.
That defeat was New York’s third in a row, after a 4-0 home loss to Edmonton on October 31 and a 5-3 loss to Carolina on November 5. The Islanders sit at 7-6-3 with 17 points, and they now head west for three games in California: San Jose on Monday, Los Angeles on Thursday, Anaheim on Saturday.
The Kings are 5-8-2 with 12 points, seventh in the Pacific. They lost 5-2 at home to Pittsburgh on Saturday, three nights after beating San Jose 7-2 behind an Adrian Kempe hat trick. Home form is the problem: 2-5-0 at Crypto.com Arena, against 3-3-2 on the road.
Puck drops at 10:00pm ET on Thursday 12 November. It’s game six of a seven-game Kings homestand that started on October 29, with Nashville visiting on Tuesday. Neither team plays on Wednesday, so nobody arrives on a back-to-back.
Los Angeles won the first meeting, 3-2 in overtime at UBS Arena on October 22. Artemi Panarin scored twice, Brandt Clarke got the winner and Darcy Kuemper made 41 saves. The Kings also beat the Islanders 3-2 on Long Island last March.
Los Angeles Kings: a 63% penalty kill and Kuemper at .885 
Through November 4, the Kings killed 63.04% of the penalties they took. That’s the number that worries me most about backing them. They allow roughly 3.47 goals per game once Saturday’s loss is included.
Kuemper is 5-3-1 with a 3.46 GAA and an .885 save percentage, and he allowed four goals on 18 shots against Pittsburgh. Anton Forsberg has better rate numbers (2.51, .902) but hasn’t won in five appearances: 0-4-1.
The offense runs through Panarin, who came over from the Rangers in a February 4 trade and signed a two-year, $22 million deal. He has 17 points (8 goals, 9 assists) and had four assists in the 7-2 win over San Jose. Kempe has 6 goals, Clarke 11 points from the blue line.
The power play works: 22.0% before the Pittsburgh game. When the Kings score, they score in bunches, with six goals against the Rangers on October 26, six against Ottawa on October 29 and seven against the Sharks. They’ve also been held to one or two goals three times in their last six.
Injuries are hard to pin down. Zuccarello (upper body) was projected back around November 10 and Dvorak around November 28, while Fiala’s lower-leg injury had no confirmed return. Drew Doughty, the captain, has 8 points.
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New York Islanders: Schaefer and Horvat on 16 points each 
Matthew Schaefer leads the Islanders with 16 points (5 goals, 11 assists), level with Bo Horvat (7 goals, 9 assists). Brayden Schenn, acquired from St. Louis on March 6, has 12. The Islanders score 2.88 goals per game and allow 3.00.
Sorokin carries them. He’s 6-4-1 with a 2.64 GAA and a .909 save percentage, and the 45-save night against the Devils was the latest example. Semyon Varlamov is 1-2-2 at .892 behind him.
The penalty kill is the clear edge over Los Angeles: 85.71% against the Kings’ 63%. The power play isn’t: Peter DeBoer’s team has converted 7 of 48 chances, a 14.58% rate.
The injury list is long. Ryan Pulock is out two to four weeks with an upper-body injury from October 29. Ritchie is on IR with a lower-body problem, four to six weeks from October 17. Barzal (left knee inflammation) and Maccelli were back in regular jerseys at Saturday’s morning skate, with travel for the trip still to be decided.
Away from home, New York are 3-3-1. Two of those road wins came in the space of three days in late October, 4-3 in a shootout in Nashville and 4-3 in overtime in Minnesota. Their first stop this week is San Jose on Monday, which leaves two clear days before the Kings.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Kings: Darcy Kuemper in goal (not confirmed); Panarin, Kempe, Laferriere up front; Doughty, Clarke on defense (lines not announced)
Probable lineup New York Islanders: Ilya Sorokin in goal (not confirmed); Horvat, Schenn, Holmstrom, Eklund, Pageau up front; Schaefer on defense (lines not announced)
Free NHL Prediction: Los Angeles Kings vs New York Islanders
Our prediction: New York Islanders to win (moneyline, overtime included)
The goaltending gap is the case. Sorokin is at .909, Kuemper at .885, and the Kings have won two of seven at home. Add a penalty kill that has let in more than a third of opposing power plays, and Los Angeles give up too much for me to back them at home.
The counter-argument is the head-to-head. The Kings have beaten the Islanders in each of the last two meetings, both 3-2, and Panarin had two goals in October. Three straight Islanders losses don’t help either.
I’m still taking New York. Their kill should keep Panarin’s power play in check, and a goalie who just faced 50 shots and kept it close gives them a chance in any game that stays tight. Islanders, with overtime included.
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