- 1 Italy vs France: three straight defeats in Milan and a France side that hasn’t lost in the group
- 2 Italy: Pio Esposito’s four goals and a back line without Di Lorenzo
- 3 France: Olise’s four goals and Mbappé back through the middle
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Italy vs France
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Italy vs France: three straight defeats in Milan and a France side that hasn’t lost in the group 
Italy have lost their last three matches in Milan. The most recent was a 4-1 defeat to Norway at San Siro in the final round of World Cup qualifying. In November 2024 France won 3-1 at the same ground in the Nations League.
That’s the setting for Thursday 12 November, kick-off 19:45 UK time, when Roberto Mancini’s side host Zinedine Zidane’s France at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on matchday five of League A, Group 1. The FIGC chose the venue, and the choice puts the national team back at a stadium where its recent memories are poor.
France top the group with 10 points from four games, seven goals scored and two conceded. Italy are second on seven, with eight scored and five let in, and Belgium sit a point behind them on six. Türkiye have none. The top two go through to the two-legged quarter-finals in March 2027, and third place means a relegation play-off against a League B runner-up.
The first meeting in this campaign finished 1-1 at the Stade de France on 2 October. Michael Olise scored on 55 minutes, Alessandro Bastoni equalised on 68, and Dayot Upamecano was sent off five minutes from time for a second yellow card. Italy had the extra man for the last five minutes and didn’t find a winner.
We see a France side that has dropped two points in four group games and an Italy side whose home record in this stadium is the worst part of its recent history. The price on the away side sits around 1.86, and we think that’s the right side of the market for reasons that go beyond the Milan record.
Italy: Pio Esposito’s four goals and a back line without Di Lorenzo 
Italy started the group with a 2-0 home defeat to Belgium at the Olimpico on 25 September, Mancini’s first match back in charge. Mika Godts scored on 19 minutes and Dodi Lukebakio added the second on 68.
Since then they’ve taken seven points from nine. They won 4-1 in Bursa on 28 September, with Bastoni, Davide Frattesi, Michael Kayode and Francesco Pio Esposito scoring, drew in Paris, and then beat Türkiye 3-1 in Bologna on 5 October through Gianluca Scamacca, Riccardo Calafiori and Esposito again.
Esposito has now scored in four of Italy’s last six internationals: the June friendlies in Luxembourg and Greece, both 1-0 wins, and the two Türkiye games. Mancini has kept him in a 31-man squad that leaves out Moise Kean, Mateo Retegui, Giacomo Raspadori and Manuel Locatelli, so the centre-forward role is his to lose.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo is injured and misses the window. He started at right-back in the October draw, and his absence probably pushes Kayode into that role. Bastoni has two goals from defence in this campaign, and Calafiori has one.
Of the eight goals Italy have scored in the group, seven came against Türkiye, the side with no points. Against Belgium and France combined they’ve scored once in 180 minutes. We’d weigh that split more heavily than the overall total, because France belong firmly in the second group.
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France: Olise’s four goals and Mbappé back through the middle 
Zidane’s first match as France coach was a 1-0 win in Izmit on 25 September. Kylian Mbappé scored early in the second half and then went off with a knee problem, and Désiré Doué took his place.
France then won 1-0 in Brussels on 28 September with an 88th-minute goal from Olise, drew with Italy, and beat Belgium 4-1 in Paris on 5 October. Doué, Rayan Cherki and Olise twice scored in that last game, all after the 75th minute, once Lukebakio’s first-half goal had put Belgium ahead.
Olise has four of France’s seven group goals. Zidane has said Mbappé will play as the central striker in this window, which gives France a second regular scorer alongside Olise. Mbappé’s only group goal came in the opener in Izmit.
The absences are real. Ousmane Dembélé, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Manu Koné and Maghnes Akliouche are all out, and Pablo Pagis has been called up for the first time in Akliouche’s place. Reports differ on whether Upamecano’s red card from October still applies, so the centre-back pairing isn’t settled. Ibrahima Konaté and Leny Yoro are both in the 23.
The squad is still deep where it matters for this match. Aurélien Tchouaméni and Warren Zaïre-Emery are back in midfield, Mike Maignan is in goal, and the four players who scored in the group, Mbappé, Olise, Doué and Cherki, are all available.
Probable lineup Italy: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup France: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Italy vs France
Our prediction: France to win (1.86)
Italy have scored once in two games against the other sides in the top three, and they’ve lost their last three matches in Milan. France have conceded twice in four group games, and one of those came in a 4-1 win over Belgium.
The French absences at the back are the main argument against us, and Italy did take a point in Paris a month ago. Zidane now has Mbappé fit and named as his central striker, with Olise, Doué and Cherki also in the squad.
France have won 3-1 in this stadium within the last two years. At 1.86, we’re backing them to do it again, and to put a hand on first place in the group before the final trip to Bordeaux.
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