- 1 Cardiff City vs Burnley: unbeaten at home against a side with one league win
- 2 Cardiff City: seven home games unbeaten and 16 goals scored at home
- 3 Burnley: one win in 14, two draws under Celestini and a quiet Vardy
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Cardiff City vs Burnley
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Cardiff City vs Burnley: unbeaten at home against a side with one league win 
Cardiff City led West Ham 3-0 at half-time on Wednesday night and finished with a 3-3 draw. It was a bad way to drop two points, and it still left Brian Barry-Murphy’s side unbeaten in seven league games at the Cardiff City Stadium.
That home run is the first thing Burnley have to deal with on Saturday 7 November, kick-off 15:00 UK time. Cardiff are 18th on 15 points after 14 games, five clear of the drop zone, and they’ve won three and drawn four at home without losing.
Burnley are 22nd on 10 points, four from safety. They’ve won one league game all season, and their wait for a home league win now goes back more than a year.
Fabio Celestini took over on 28 October, after Nicky Hayen was sacked following a 4-1 defeat at Lincoln. The Swiss coach has had two games, a 0-0 at home to Portsmouth and a 1-1 at QPR on Tuesday, and Burnley haven’t lost since he arrived.
The head-to-head points the other way. Burnley won the last three league meetings, 3-0 in May 2023, 5-0 in August 2024 and 2-1 in Cardiff in March 2025, although Cardiff won 2-1 at Turf Moor in the Carabao Cup in September 2025.
Cardiff are 2.10 to win, the draw is 3.70 and Burnley 3.10. I’d make the home side shorter than that.
Cardiff City: seven home games unbeaten and 16 goals scored at home 
Cardiff have scored 16 league goals at home and conceded nine. Away from South Wales they’ve scored six and let in 14, and that split explains why a side with this home record sits in the bottom half.
The last six weeks show both sides of it. They beat Watford 5-1 on 13 October and Birmingham 1-0 on 24 October at home, drew 2-2 at Middlesbrough, and lost 2-1 at Blackburn and 3-0 at Wolves.
Jack Moylan is the man who makes the attack work. Cardiff signed him from Lincoln City for an undisclosed club-record fee, announced on 5 August, and he has at least nine league goals. Two of them came inside 35 minutes against Watford.
Ollie Tanner has four assists and scored in the Watford win, and Yousef Salech leads the line. Callum Robinson, also on the scoresheet that day, was left out of three matchday squads last month for failing to meet the club’s standards.
Perry Ng went off injured late on against West Ham, and Ronan Kpakio is expected to start at right-back. Gabriel Osho has served his three-match ban and could come back into the centre of defence ahead of Will Fish. Dylan Lawlor and Calum Chambers remain out until after the international break.
The West Ham game cuts both ways. Cardiff scored three times in 45 minutes against a side in the top eight, then conceded three in the second half, and those three goals came at a ground where they’d let in six in their previous six league games.
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Burnley: one win in 14, two draws under Celestini and a quiet Vardy 
Burnley’s season reads W1 D7 L6. They’ve scored 18 league goals and conceded 26, a goal difference of minus eight.
Hayen’s last weeks brought a 2-2 draw at home to Charlton on 13 October, a 2-1 home defeat to Wolves three days later and the 4-1 loss at Lincoln on 24 October. That defeat ended his time at the club.
Celestini’s first two games have been tighter. Portsmouth didn’t score at Turf Moor, and at Loftus Road Ramazani’s 38th-minute goal was cancelled out by Varane on 65 minutes. Two points from two games isn’t much, but the three games before that brought one.
The goals are spread thin. Ramazani has three in the league, Amdouni three and Bruun Larsen two. Jamie Vardy, who scored against Wolves on 16 October, had one goal in six games going into November.
Bashir Humphreys, Hannibal Mejbri and the Chelsea loanee Dastan Satpaev are all out. Celestini may stick with the side that drew at QPR, with Cullen, Ramsey and Banel the options if he changes the midfield.
Their only league win of the season was the 4-0 at Watford, and that result is the reason Burnley’s price isn’t longer. Since then they’ve conceded four at Lincoln and two at home to both Charlton and Wolves.
Probable lineup Cardiff City: Trott; Kpakio, Osho, Bagan, Scanlon; Robertson; Ashford, Moylan, J. Colwill, Willock; Salech
Probable lineup Burnley: Coudert; Walker, Ekdal, Julio, Pires; Hatate, Laurent; Hountondji, Edwards, Ramazani; Vardy
Free Football Prediction: Cardiff City vs Burnley
Our prediction: Cardiff City to win (odds 2.10)
Cardiff are unbeaten in seven home league games and have scored 16 goals in them. Burnley have one league win from 14 and haven’t won at home in over a year, and their best result under Celestini so far is a draw.
The record against Burnley is the obvious problem, with three straight league defeats to them. Those games came against different Burnley sides, though, and the current one hasn’t beaten anybody in the Championship since its only win.
I’d back Cardiff at 2.10 and expect goals at both ends. Moylan’s form at home and Burnley’s 26 conceded make a 2-1 the score I’d lean towards.
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