- 1 England vs Australia: no Tom Curry, and 93 points conceded to the All Blacks
- 2 England: 14 yellow cards in eight Tests, and a fly-half back just in time
- 3 Australia: Bell and Ikitau return to a side that has lost its defensive shape
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: England vs Australia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
England vs Australia: no Tom Curry, and 93 points conceded to the All Blacks
Tom Curry pulled out of England training on Wednesday and won’t face Australia. Ben Curry starts at openside in his place, and he joins a list of absentees that already had Alex Mitchell, Guy Pepper and Archie McParland on it.
Mitchell hurt his hamstring playing for Northampton, Pepper has an ankle problem that rules him out of the whole November window, and Benhard Janse van Rensburg has been stood down indefinitely after two concussions. The good news for Steve Borthwick came on Friday: Fin Smith got through the last session after his calf strain and starts at fly-half.
The game is on Sunday 8 November at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, with kick-off at 15:10 UK time. It’s round four of the Nations Championship, and France’s Pierre Brousset is the referee.
Australia arrive on the back of two heavy defeats to New Zealand: 50-19 at Eden Park on 10 October and 43-21 in Sydney a week later. Add the 42-38 win over South Africa in Perth before that and Les Kiss’s side have conceded 131 points in their last three Tests.
England beat Australia 25-7 at Twickenham on 1 November 2025, twelve months after losing 42-37 on the same ground. Across the last five meetings England have won three, and the overall record in England stands at 18 home wins to Australia’s 12.
The market makes England 1.30 to win and Australia 3.60, with the handicap set at around nine points. I think that line is too short for what the last month says about the Wallaby defence.
England: 14 yellow cards in eight Tests, and a fly-half back just in time 
England’s year started badly. They finished fifth in the Six Nations with one win, 48-7 against Wales, and four defeats: 31-20 at Murrayfield, 42-21 at home to Ireland, 23-18 in Rome and 48-46 in Paris.
July went better. They lost 45-21 to South Africa at Ellis Park on 4 July, then beat a 14-man Fiji 73-8 in Liverpool and won 31-24 in Santiago del Estero against Argentina. Those 125 points were the most scored by any side in the Northern pool.
Discipline is the weak spot, and it’s a big one. England have collected 14 yellow cards and one red in eight Tests this year, and in Argentina they had four players sin-binned: Jack van Poortvliet, Alex Coles, Henry Pollock and Iyogun. They spent a combined nine minutes with 13 men that day and still won.
Van Poortvliet starts at nine on Sunday with Mitchell out, and Coles partners Maro Itoje in the second row. George Furbank wins his first cap since November 2024 at full-back, with Tommy Freeman and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso on the wings and Henry Slade and Seb Atkinson in midfield.
Borthwick has gone 6-2 on the bench. The uncapped Exeter forward Greg Fisilau is among the six, with Pollock and George Martin, while Ben Spencer and Marcus Smith cover the backs. George Ford isn’t in the 23, and Joe Marchant has been left out.
Smith has started England’s last five Tests at ten, and the calf strain that put Sunday in doubt cleared up in time for Friday’s session. Marcus Smith is the cover at fly-half from the bench.
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Australia: Bell and Ikitau return to a side that has lost its defensive shape 
Australia’s 2026 has been a series of swings. They lost 33-31 to Ireland in Sydney and 42-26 to France in Brisbane in July, then put 57 past Italy in Perth.
The middle of the year was their best stretch. They beat Japan twice, 35-32 away and 56-17 in Townsville, won 27-21 in Argentina and drew 28-28 the following week, and then beat South Africa 42-38 in Perth on 27 September.
The Bledisloe games undid most of that. New Zealand scored 93 points in two weeks, and Australia were without Angus Bell and, for most of that series, Len Ikitau. Both are back on Sunday, Bell at loosehead and Ikitau at inside centre.
Kiss has kept faith with youth at fly-half and outside centre. Declan Meredith, who has five caps, starts at ten after his game against the All Blacks in Sydney, and Isaac Henry, with six, wears thirteen. That’s 11 caps between the two players who’ll organise most of the defensive line in the wider channels.
The experience sits elsewhere. Allan Alaalatoa is on 96 caps, Fraser McReight plays his 50th Test, and Harry Wilson captains the side from number eight. Rob Valetini, Carlo Tizzano and Taniela Tupou are all on the bench, which gives Australia real weight for the last 25 minutes.
No new injuries were reported this week. Australia go on to Murrayfield on 15 November and Cardiff on 21 November, so this is the first of three Tests in three weeks.
Probable lineup England: Furbank; Freeman, Slade, Atkinson, Feyi-Waboso; F. Smith, Van Poortvliet; Baxter, George, Heyes, Itoje (capt), Coles, Chessum, B. Curry, Earl. Bench: Cowan-Dickie, Genge, Stuart, Martin, Fisilau, Pollock, Spencer, M. Smith
Probable lineup Australia: Wright; Jorgensen, Henry, Ikitau, Suaalii; Meredith, Lonergan; Bell, Pollard, Alaalatoa, Canham, Salakaia-Loto, Williams, McReight, Wilson (capt). Bench: Nasser, Kailea, Tupou, Valetini, Tizzano, McDermott, Donaldson, Daugunu
Free Rugby Prediction: England vs Australia
Our prediction: England -9 on the handicap (odds 1.91)
Australia have let in 38, 50 and 43 points in their last three Tests, and they bring an inexperienced ten-thirteen axis to Twickenham. England scored 125 points in three July Tests and have won three of the last five meetings, including 25-7 on this ground a year ago.
The case against is England’s discipline. Fourteen yellow cards in eight Tests is a lot, and a couple of sin-bins would let Australia’s bench back into the game. I’d still back the home side to win by double figures, because Bell and Ikitau coming back doesn’t erase the 93 points New Zealand scored in the last fortnight of October.
I’m not convinced by the idea that Australia’s win over South Africa in September reflects where they are now. The six weeks since have been far worse, and England at home are a bigger test than anything they faced in Perth.
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