Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder – Free NBA Prediction – Nov 10

Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: a 121.9-point offense against a Thunder roster down three starters

Portland is 6-1 and leads the Western Conference, and the home games are the strange part of that record. The Trail Blazers are 5-0 on the road and 1-1 at the Moda Center, where Memphis beat them 124-103 on 29 October.

Oklahoma City arrives on Tuesday 10 November, tip-off 11:00pm ET, for the first of two straight games in Portland. The same teams meet in the same building on Wednesday at 10:00pm ET, so the two coaching staffs will be planning for a mini-series in the middle of November.

Both teams have had a heavy week. Portland plays the Lakers on Friday and San Antonio on Saturday. Oklahoma City plays in Memphis on Friday and hosts Washington on Saturday. Each then gets two days off, so neither has a rest edge when the ball goes up.

The Thunder were 6-2 and fourth in the West through Thursday, and they’ve done that with Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Chet Holmgren all out long term. They’re 3-2 since losing that group, and all four home games have been wins, but they’ve gone 2-2 away from Paycom Center.

The offensive gap is 11.9 points a game. Portland leads the NBA at 121.9, while Oklahoma City ranks 21st at 110.0 and 28th in made threes at 10.9 a night. The Thunder’s defense sits eighth at 108.8 allowed, and that’s the matchup we’d watch first.

Portland Trail Blazers: 118 in Denver, 132 in Phoenix and no Morant or Sharpe

Deni Avdija leads Portland at 23.4 points a game and Damian Lillard adds 20.1. In Wednesday’s 132-119 win in Phoenix, Lillard scored 25, Donovan Clingan had 24 and Avdija added 21, and it was the third straight win for a team coached by Micah Nori.

Clingan’s numbers matter here because of who’s missing on the other side. He’s averaging 12.0 points, and Portland gets 47.4 rebounds a game, seventh in the league, with a rebound margin of +7.5. Oklahoma City won’t have Holmgren or, as of Friday, Jaylin Williams, who was ruled out with back spasms.

Ja Morant suffered a grade 2 strain of his left hamstring on 29 October and is out for at least four weeks. He’d averaged 15.8 points in four games. Shaedon Sharpe has a torn meniscus and won’t return for months, so Portland has won its last three without either guard.

Jrue Holiday is averaging 13.4 points and is the first guard off the bench, with Toumani Camara at 13.7. Scoot Henderson has taken a starting spot. That depth is why Portland’s rating of 122.44 points per 100 possessions has held up through the injuries.

The defense is more ordinary at 110.7 points allowed, 12th in the league, and the Memphis game showed what happens when the shots don’t fall at home. Portland lost that one by 21 after being outscored 66-45 in the second half.

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Oklahoma City Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander’s 42, and two wins over Cleveland in three days

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 42 against Cleveland on Wednesday, two days after Oklahoma City had won in Ohio, and the Thunder took both games, 117-112 and 124-116. He’s averaging 30.1 points through eight games.

The support comes mostly from Ajay Mitchell at 17.8 and Jared McCain at 10.1. Rookie Bennett Stirtz scored 16 on Wednesday, and Isaiah Hartenstein adds 8.1 points and 10.1 rebounds. Behind them, Mark Daigneault has had to start Kenrich Williams and Aday Mara.

The losses that define this stretch came just before those two wins. Dallas beat the Thunder 120-96 on 28 October and Houston won 119-98 three days later, and both games came in the first week after Jalen Williams and Wallace were hurt on 25 October.

Williams broke his left fibula and dislocated his left ankle, and Wallace had labrum surgery, with both listed out until at least March. Holmgren has a small tear in his right patellar tendon and is expected to miss 8 to 10 weeks. Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber are also on the list, with reports split on their timing.

Oklahoma City’s overall ratings tell the story of the short rotation: 111.83 on offense and 110.84 on defense, a net of +1.00. It went 3-1 against Portland last season, including 124-95 on 31 December.

Probable lineup Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Deni Avdija, Donovan Clingan
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams, Aday Mara, Isaiah Hartenstein

Free NBA Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Our prediction: Portland Trail Blazers to win

Portland’s net rating of +11.38 is more than 10 points better than Oklahoma City’s +1.00, and the gap on the glass favors a team with Clingan against a frontcourt missing Holmgren. We weigh the last two weeks more heavily than last season’s 3-1 series, which was played with a different Thunder roster.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s 30.1 points a game is the honest case for the visitors, and Portland’s 1-1 home record isn’t the kind of number we’d normally lean on. Morant’s and Sharpe’s absences also limit how much Portland can adjust if Lillard has a cold night.

We still expect the deeper offense to win at home, on equal rest, against a team shooting 33.3% from three. Moneylines weren’t available at the time of writing, so we’d take Portland only at 1.45 or longer.

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