- 1 Rennes vs Lille: 19 goals conceded against six at Roazhon Park
- 2 Rennes: 20 goals scored, 19 conceded, and no Lepaul or Samba
- 3 Lille: one league defeat in nine and only six goals conceded
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Rennes vs Lille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Rennes vs Lille: 19 goals conceded against six at Roazhon Park 
Rennes have conceded 19 league goals in nine matches. Lille have conceded six. Those two numbers sit behind a game between second and fifth in Ligue 1, at Roazhon Park on Sunday 8 November, 14:00 UK time, with Lille on 18 points and Rennes on 16.
Rennes went top of the table with a 3-0 win over Strasbourg on 25 October. Their next league game ended 5-2 to Nice on 30 October, and they’ve since slipped to fifth.
Their last five matches in all competitions have all gone over 2.5 goals, 24 goals in total. Lille’s last five have gone under that line four times, with five scored and six conceded.
The last two league meetings in Rennes both ended with a Lille win, 2-0 in February 2025 and 2-1 in March 2026. Rennes did win 2-0 at Lille in January this year, and the all-time record of 34 meetings stands at nine Rennes wins, 13 draws and 12 for Lille.
The market has Rennes at 2.10, the draw at 3.60 and Lille at 3.30. We think that overrates a home side that has conceded 2.1 goals a game in the league, and the double chance on the visitors at 1.70 is where we land.
Rennes: 20 goals scored, 19 conceded, and no Lepaul or Samba 
Rennes’ last five results read like a list of open games: 2-1 against OFI in the Europa League, 4-3 lost at Paris FC, 2-2 at Juventus, 3-0 against Strasbourg and 5-2 lost at Nice. Both teams scored in four of those five.
Scoring hasn’t been the issue. Twenty league goals is eight more than Lille have managed, and Franck Haise has gone back to a 3-5-2 this autumn.
The cost has shown up at the other end, with nine conceded in their last two league away games, at Paris FC and Nice. Lille have conceded six in nine.
Two absences make it harder. Esteban Lepaul is out with an ankle injury, removing their main forward, and goalkeeper Brice Samba is out with a thigh problem after starting the last three meetings with Lille.
Rennes also had a Europa League game with Olympiacos on Wednesday, which leaves them four days to prepare. Tamari has started each of the last three meetings with Lille, and Rennes won just one of those.
The table gives them a clear reason to go for it. A win would take Rennes to 19 points and past Lille, while a defeat would leave them five behind with a goal difference of plus one against Lille’s plus six. Their 5-1-3 league record already shows how few games they’ve drawn: nine matches have nearly all ended with a winner.
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Lille: one league defeat in nine and only six goals conceded 
Lille’s 5-3-1 league record has been built on defence. Six conceded in nine games works out at 0.67 a match, and they’ve scored just 12, so their position rests on keeping games tight.
The last five results show it: 1-1 with Brest, 2-4 lost to Galatasaray in the Champions League, 1-1 at Monaco, 1-0 against Lens and 0-0 at Bodo/Glimt on 3 November. Apart from the night against Galatasaray, nobody has scored more than once against them in that run.
The 0-0 at Bodo/Glimt followed the 1-0 against Lens, two clean sheets in a row in the week before this trip. They’ll have had five days to recover by Sunday, one more than Rennes.
Their squad isn’t whole. Ueda (foot), Igamane (knee), Santos (knee) and Bentaleb (illness) are all listed as out, which takes two forwards away from an attack that was already scoring at 1.3 goals a game.
Hakon Haraldsson has started each of the last three meetings with Rennes, and Lille have won two of those. With two forwards missing, we’d expect them to rely on the defensive record that has taken them to 18 points.
The history of this fixture supports a close game. Lille have won three of the last six meetings and Rennes one, with two 2-2 draws in the 2023-24 season. Rennes’ win came at Lille, 2-0 in January. Lille also won 1-0 at home in November 2024, the sort of narrow result their current defence is built to produce.
The one warning from their recent form is the 4-2 defeat to Galatasaray on 21 October, the only game in this run in which they conceded more than once. Rennes can test that even without Lepaul, having scored 12 in their last five.
Probable lineup Rennes: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Lille: Not announced at time of publication
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Rennes vs Lille
Our prediction: Lille or draw (double chance) at 1.70
We’re taking Lille not to lose. They have by far the better defence of the two, six conceded against 19, and they’ve won on each of their last two league visits to Roazhon Park.
Rennes’ 20 league goals are the argument against us, and playing at home gives them a real chance of scoring. But they’ve lost Lepaul, and their defence has been breached at a rate that a single good day won’t fix, particularly with Samba also absent.
At 1.70 we get both the draw and the away win. Lille have lost once in the league all season, and we’d expect a low-margin game in which they stay in contention to the end.
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