- 1 San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks: six straight in the series, and five of them by 12 or more
- 2 San Antonio Spurs: five straight wins and a 106.8 defensive rating
- 3 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg and Irving are in, Christie and Lively are not
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks: six straight in the series, and five of them by 12 or more 
San Antonio has beaten Dallas six straight times, and the last five of those wins came by 16, 19, 13, 12 and 33 points. I start there because the line for Wednesday 4 November, tip-off 9:30pm ET at Frost Bank Center, sits between 11.5 and 12.5.
The Spurs are 5-2 and have won five in a row since opening with losses to Oklahoma City and Houston. Their last two wins were 121-111 over Minnesota on Saturday and 119-97 over Utah on Monday, a game they led by as many as 26.
Dallas is 4-3 and comes in off a bad night. Wins over Miami, Oklahoma City and Houston were followed by a 115-100 home loss on Monday to a Sacramento team that had lost its first six games.
The first meeting this season finished 122-106 in Dallas on 24 October. Cooper Flagg sat out that game with a left shoulder sprain, and Sergio De Larrea filled the gap with 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting. Flagg is back for this one, and De Larrea is out with a right knee sprain.
San Antonio is priced around 1.22 on the moneyline, with Dallas around 5.55. The spread is -11.5 at some books and -12.5 at others, and the total runs from 227.5 to 229.5.
San Antonio Spurs: five straight wins and a 106.8 defensive rating 
The Spurs score 117.6 points a game and allow 108.3. Their offensive rating is 115.6 and their defensive rating 106.8, while Dallas sits at 112.6 and 112.4, which puts the two teams 8.6 net points per 100 possessions apart.
Victor Wembanyama is averaging 25.7 points and 10.7 rebounds, and he put up 31.2 a night over the five games from 23 to 31 October. On Monday he needed just 12 points to go with 11 rebounds and three blocks, because Utah was gone early. He had 23 points, seven rebounds and four blocks in Dallas last month.
Dylan Harper took more of the load against Utah, with 17 points and eight assists, and he’s averaging 5.3 assists for the season. Stephon Castle adds 14.7 points, 5.0 assists and 2.4 threes a game, and De’Aaron Fox is shooting 58.2% from the field.
Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are both out. Julian Champagnie and Keldon Johnson carry the scoring off the bench, so the rotation doesn’t lose much for a home game against a short roster.
San Antonio turns the ball over 13.4 times a game and pulls down 46.7 rebounds, against 17.0 and 42.4 for Dallas. The Mavericks do shoot better from the field, 48.3% to 46.5%, but they give away more than three extra possessions a night before that number counts.
San Antonio has scored at least 119 points against each of Dallas, Utah and Minnesota in this run. Two more meetings with the Mavericks follow this season, on 9 February in Dallas and 19 March in San Antonio.
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Dallas Mavericks: Flagg and Irving are in, Christie and Lively are not 
Flagg is averaging 25.2 points and 6.5 assists, and 26.3 points over his last five games. This will be his first look at San Antonio this season, and it’s the biggest difference from the 16-point loss on 24 October.
Kyrie Irving sat out Monday for left knee management, his second missed game of the year, but he isn’t on the injury report for Wednesday. The 34-year-old has averaged 21.4 points in 28.6 minutes across five games, and he scored 35 in the 116-111 win over Houston.
Max Christie has been ruled out with right hip soreness after going 0-for-5 in 7:40 against Sacramento. He’s started all seven games, averaging 7.1 points on 33.3% shooting. Biberovic (heel) and De Larrea are also out, and Caleb Martin is playing with a splint on his right thumb.
Dereck Lively II hasn’t played since 21 November 2025 and remains out after foot surgery. That leaves Daniel Gafford, who’s scoring 10.1 points on a league-best 75.0% from the field, as the main rim presence against Wembanyama. Santi Aldama is questionable, and he hasn’t played an NBA game since 4 February.
Coach Dusty May’s team has scored 112.3 points a game and allowed exactly the same. Four of its last five games stayed under 229.5, and it has lost its last three visits to San Antonio.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, Zaccharie Risacher, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford (not confirmed at time of publication)
Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs -11.5 (2.00)
I’d back the Spurs at -11.5. All five of the recent meetings listed above finished beyond that number, San Antonio’s net rating is 8.6 points better, and Dallas gives away 3.6 more turnovers a game while missing two rotation players and its injured center.
Flagg didn’t play in the October meeting, and Irving scored 35 against Houston on Friday, so a Dallas run is possible. I still don’t see this roster holding up for 48 minutes against Wembanyama with Gafford as the only true big on the floor.
The price matters: -11.5 is the number to take, and I wouldn’t go past -12.5. Spurs are 5-0 since the 0-2 start, and the two wins before this one came by 10 and 22.
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