- 1 Montreal Canadiens vs Utah Mammoth: a 4-0 lead lost in 126 seconds, then a 36.4% power play
- 2 Montreal Canadiens: Fowler’s .932 and a captain still out until mid-November
- 3 Utah Mammoth: 20 power-play goals, and a penalty kill stopping only 70.0%
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Utah Mammoth
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Montreal Canadiens vs Utah Mammoth: a 4-0 lead lost in 126 seconds, then a 36.4% power play 
Montreal led Winnipeg 4-0 with 2:39 left on Tuesday and lost 5-4 in overtime. The Jets scored four times in 126 seconds at the Bell Centre, and the Canadiens have to reset by Thursday 5 November, when Utah visits at 7:00pm ET.
We wouldn’t read too much into one collapse. Montreal had won five straight before it, a run that included 2-1 in Winnipeg, 2-0 in St. Louis, 5-2 in Dallas and 5-4 over Pittsburgh, and the Canadiens still hold 21 points from 15 games on a 9-3-3 record.
Utah comes in at 10-6-0 with 20 points, second in the Central. The Mammoth won 3-2 in Toronto on Tuesday, after a 6-3 defeat in Philadelphia and a 4-3 overtime win in Pittsburgh.
Special teams swing hard in both directions. Utah’s power play converts 36.4% of its chances and has 20 goals. Montreal’s converts 13.0% and has six, yet the Canadiens kill 81.7% of penalties and the Mammoth just 70.0%.
The overall numbers look closer. Utah scores 3.56 goals a game and allows 3.38, Montreal scores 3.33 and allows 3.13, and Utah has the shot share, 30.3 for and 24.8 against, compared with Montreal’s 27.1 and 28.9.
Both teams have another game on Saturday, Montreal in Toronto and Utah in Ottawa, so neither has room to ease off in the second half of a two-game week. The next meeting between them is 30 November in Salt Lake City.
The market can barely separate them, with Montreal around 1.89 and Utah around 2.00. The total is 5.5 goals.
Montreal Canadiens: Fowler’s .932 and a captain still out until mid-November 
Jacob Fowler went into Tuesday with a .932 save percentage and a 1.84 goals-against average in eight games. Montreal had won his previous seven starts.
The rookie has been the reason this team has stayed near the top of the Atlantic without Nick Suzuki. The captain blocked a shot against San Jose on 20 October, hasn’t played since and now carries a hand injury with an estimated return around 17 November.
Cole Caufield leads the team with 10 goals and 14 points, and two of those goals came on the power play on Tuesday. Josh Anderson and Owen Beck scored the others.
The injury list is long. Mike Matheson is due back around 13 November, Ivan Demidov has a right foot injury with an estimate of 6 November, Kirby Dach has been out with an illness and Samuel Montembeault has a lower-body problem. Jakub Dobes is the alternative in goal, and he was 1-2-2 with a 4.47 goals-against average in late October.
Montreal has allowed 11 power-play goals this season. Against a unit with 20 of its own, keeping the penalty count down matters more than anything else in the game plan, and the Canadiens have taken 173 penalty minutes, level with Utah.
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Utah Mammoth: 20 power-play goals, and a penalty kill stopping only 70.0% 
Clayton Keller has 21 points and 17 of them are assists. He runs a power play with 20 goals in 16 games, with defensemen such as Mikhail Sergachev heavily involved in the shooting.
Logan Cooley leads the team with eight goals and scored in Philadelphia, and Nick Schmaltz had seven goals in late October, five of them on the power play. That spread is why Montreal can’t simply shadow one player on the man advantage.
Utah’s own penalty kill is the mirror image. It has allowed 15 power-play goals, and a 70.0% rate gives even a 13.0% Montreal unit a route into the game. Caufield’s two power-play goals on Tuesday showed what happens when that unit gets a rhythm.
Goaltending is the uneven part of the roster. Karel Vejmelka was at 3.13 and .881 in late October, and Sebastian Cossa was listed at .855 and 3.20 through five games before Tuesday’s game in Toronto, where he was the listed starter. Neither approaches Fowler’s numbers.
John Marino and Kailer Yamamoto have upper-body injuries with estimates that had them returning around this game, and Maveric Lamoureux is out until February. Coach Andre Tourigny pointed to defensive execution and composure after the 6-3 loss in Philadelphia, a game in which Utah allowed six goals.
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Utah Mammoth: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Montreal Canadiens vs Utah Mammoth
Our prediction: Montreal Canadiens to win (1.89)
We’re taking Montreal at 1.89. The goaltending gap is the main reason: Fowler’s .932 against two Utah goalies who were both under .885 at last count, in a game the market treats as close to a coin flip.
Utah’s power play is the strongest argument the other way, and 36.4% can turn a game in one period. Montreal’s penalty kill at 81.7% is good enough to limit that, and Utah’s 70.0% kill leaves its own door open.
We’d want Fowler confirmed before playing this. If Dobes starts, the case weakens and we’d pass.
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