- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets: a Nets team on no rest, and a Flagg bounce-back to come
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s 25.2 points, and a frontcourt waiting on Lively
- 3 Brooklyn Nets: 21 a night from Porter and Randle, but a fourth quarter of 11 points
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets: a Nets team on no rest, and a Flagg bounce-back to come 
Brooklyn plays in Atlanta at 7:30pm ET on Saturday and has to be in Dallas 24 hours later. That turnaround shapes Sunday 8 November, 7:30pm ET, more than anything in the standings, because the Nets have shown they can hang around for three quarters and then run out of answers.
Their most recent game is the clearest example. Brooklyn led the Knicks 79-75 after three quarters on Monday, then lost the fourth 28-11 and the game 103-90. New York opened that quarter with a 25-5 run, and the Nets fell to 1-6.
Dallas isn’t coming from a good place either. The Mavericks had won three straight, including 120-96 over Oklahoma City and 116-111 over Houston, then lost 115-100 at home to a Sacramento team that hadn’t won a game. Cooper Flagg shot 3-of-19 that night.
The Mavericks have a busy stretch of their own. They host Utah on Friday and Indiana on Monday, so Brooklyn is the second of three home games in four nights.
Both teams are short at the moment, and both play on Wednesday, so the injury reports may change. Dallas is 4-3 and has scored and allowed exactly 112.3 points a game. Brooklyn scores 105.6 and allows 114.1.
Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s 25.2 points, and a frontcourt waiting on Lively 
Flagg’s 3-of-19 against Sacramento still produced 17 points, because he went 11-of-11 at the line. That’s the useful part of the game to study. He gets to the rim and the foul line whether or not his shot is falling, and his season line of 25.2 points, 6.5 assists and 5.7 rebounds on 48.6% shooting is built on that.
The weak spot is the three. Flagg is hitting 23.3% from deep and Dallas 33.1% as a team, so opponents can sit in the paint. P.J. Washington is at 29.5% and Zaccharie Risacher at 27.6%, and neither has punished that kind of coverage yet.
Kyrie Irving’s status matters most for this game. He rested his left knee against Sacramento and was listed as uncertain for San Antonio on Wednesday. When he plays he’s averaging 21.4 points on 52.7% shooting and 39.0% from three, and he scored 35 against Houston on 30 October.
The injury list is long but mostly short term. Dereck Lively II has a foot injury and Tarik Biberovic a heel problem, both estimated back around 12 November. Max Christie has a hip issue, Sergio de Larrea a knee injury and Santi Aldama a knee problem of his own, and all three carry estimated returns on or before 6 November.
Daniel Gafford has covered for Lively well, scoring 20 against the Kings and shooting 75% for the season. Walter Clayton Jr. also had 20 that night, and he’s making 57.1% of his threes in 13.2 minutes a game. The home record is only 2-2, with both defeats by 15 or more, to San Antonio and Sacramento.
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Brooklyn Nets: 21 a night from Porter and Randle, but a fourth quarter of 11 points 
Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle give Brooklyn two legitimate scorers. Porter averages 21.2 points on 46.2% shooting and 38.5% from three, while Randle has 20.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.3 assists. Randle had 21 and 11 against his former team on Monday, and Porter added 18.
The trouble starts behind them. Moritz Wagner gives the second unit 11.8 points on 57.1% shooting, but no other Net averages 11, and rookie Nolan Traore’s 10.5 is next. Traore did score 17 against the Knicks, and he’s shooting 38.9% from three.
Egor Demin and Tyler Bilodeau are listed out, Demin with an estimated return around 7 November. Mikel Brown Jr. has been shooting 27.3% in his four games, so the Nets are short of reliable ball-handlers for a second night of a back-to-back.
Close losses have been a theme. Brooklyn lost 125-124 in overtime in Boston and 125-121 in Cleveland, and both came on the road, which is where its one win also came, 98-90 in Indianapolis on 1 November against a depleted Pacers team.
The home record is 0-3 and the road record 1-3, and those road games have been the competitive ones. That’s what makes a straight fade tricky, since Day’Ron Sharpe’s 7.7 rebounds and Randle’s passing give Brooklyn enough to make a Dallas team with this many absences work for it.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Brooklyn Nets: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Brooklyn Nets
Our prediction: Dallas Mavericks to win by 7 or more points
No lines were available when we filed, and I’d take Dallas with a cushion instead of a short moneyline. Brooklyn is on the second night of a back-to-back after a game in Atlanta, and it lost the fourth quarter by 17 the last time it played.
The Nets’ close road games deserve respect, and Dallas has dropped both of its home defeats by 15 or more, so this isn’t a team to trust blindly. Those two defeats came against San Antonio and in a game Irving missed, though, while the wins came against Oklahoma City and Houston.
Flagg’s free-throw volume is the part that should travel into this game. Dallas has a rested roster relative to its opponent, it should get at least some of its injured players back, and a Nets defense allowing 114.1 has given up 103 or more in six of its seven games.
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