- 1 Manchester United vs Aston Villa: a European comeback, and a league record that hasn’t changed
- 2 Manchester United: one league win in nine, and Cunha’s night came with a red card
- 3 Aston Villa: seven away points before Camp Nou, and Jackson still the reference point
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: a European comeback, and a league record that hasn’t changed 
Manchester United went 2-0 down to Roma in the first half on Tuesday, with Matias Soule and Donyell Malen scoring six minutes apart, and won 3-2. Bruno Fernandes scored a retaken penalty on 58 minutes, Matheus Cunha equalised in the 83rd and scored again in the 86th, and the win ended a run of nine games without a victory in all competitions under Michael Carrick.
That result needs placing in context, because Sunday’s game at Old Trafford, 16:30 UK time on 8 November, is a league fixture and the league is where United’s season has gone wrong. They’re 17th with seven points from nine matches, one win, four draws and four defeats. The Roma win did nothing to that table.
Aston Villa come from the other direction. They went to Camp Nou on Tuesday with nine points from nine in the Champions League, second behind Paris Saint-Germain, and lost 3-0. Lamine Yamal scored after seven minutes and Raphinha added two after the break.
Villa are 10th in the Premier League with 12 points from nine games, three wins, three draws and three defeats, five points clear of their hosts. Both clubs have had the same recovery time since Tuesday night.
The last meeting at Old Trafford went United’s way, 3-1 on 15 March, and it was Villa’s third straight league defeat at the time. Both clubs were chasing the top four that day. I’d give this season’s numbers more weight than that afternoon.
Manchester United: one league win in nine, and Cunha’s night came with a red card 
United’s last four league games read draw at home to Tottenham, draw at Leeds, 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth and 2-0 defeat at Chelsea on 31 October. They’ve scored 10 and conceded 15 in nine matches, a goal difference of minus five.
Old Trafford hasn’t helped. Their four home league games so far, the Bournemouth defeat among them, have brought four points. Across a recent five-match stretch they scored five and let in 12, with one win, one draw and three defeats.
Cunha gave them the two goals they needed against Roma, the first after a mistake by Leonardo Balerdi, and was then sent off in the first minute of stoppage time for a second yellow card after a late challenge on the same defender. That suspension belongs to the Champions League, so he remains available on Sunday.
The injury list is long in attack and at full-back. Benjamin Sesko, Luke Shaw, Manuel Ugarte, Marcus Rashford and Patrick Dorgu were all listed as out last weekend, while Kobbie Mainoo and Lisandro Martinez were doubts. Martinez dropped to the bench against Roma after a poor afternoon at Chelsea.
Sesko’s absence leaves Zirkzee as the projected central striker, and Maguire and Yoro are the expected centre-backs in front of Lammens. That defence has let in 15 league goals in nine games, and 10 at the other end is a low return for a side with Fernandes, Mbeumo and Cunha to call on.
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Aston Villa: seven away points before Camp Nou, and Jackson still the reference point 
Nicolas Jackson scored twice in Villa’s 2-1 win over Manchester City on 24 October, on six minutes and on the hour, and those goals took him to seven for the season. I’d treat that performance as a better guide to Unai Emery’s side than Tuesday’s defeat in Barcelona.
Villa took seven points from four league games away from home, including a 1-0 win at Newcastle. United have four from the same number at Old Trafford, and the bookmakers have priced that gap: Villa are only 3.20 at a ground where they lost in March.
Emery’s squad has its own absences. Amadou Onana’s knee injury is expected to end his season, Aaron Wan-Bissaka isn’t due back until around 21 November with a hamstring problem, and Matteo Ruggeri is out until January. Matty Cash is the likely right-back as a result.
A recent five-match stretch produced two wins, a draw and two defeats, with six scored and nine conceded, and over 2.5 goals in four of those games. They aren’t a tight side, and the 2-2 draw with Brentford belongs to the same pattern.
The projected midfield has Kamara, Gomes, Manzambi and McGinn behind Jackson, with Onana’s place the one Emery has had to fill. Their goal difference of minus three is a modest figure, though it’s still two better than United’s.
Probable lineup Manchester United: Lammens; Dalot, Maguire, Yoro, Martinez; Santos, Mbeumo, Amad, Baleba, Tielemans; Zirkzee
Probable lineup Aston Villa: Suzuki; Cash, Lindelof, Pau, Mings; Kamara, Gomes, Manzambi, McGinn, Alysson; Jackson
Free Football Prediction: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
Our prediction: Aston Villa or draw (double chance) at 1.67
United are 2.15 to win this game, with the draw at 3.60 and Villa at 3.20. That home price leans heavily on Tuesday night, and I don’t think one comeback against Roma changes what nine league games have shown: one win, 15 conceded and four points from their first four at home.
The case against this pick is the 3-1 from March and the lift Old Trafford will get from Cunha’s goals. I still hold it because Villa have five more points, a better away record than United’s home record, and Jackson in the side while Sesko is on the treatment table.
The double chance at 1.67 covers a draw, and four of United’s nine league games have ended level. Villa only need to avoid defeat here, and they’ve lost three of nine league games to United’s four.
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