- 1 Castres Olympique vs Racing 92: 69 points conceded on Sunday, and a home record that still stands up
- 2 Castres Olympique: under 16 points a game conceded at home, and the lowest attack in the division
- 3 Racing 92: three straight defeats and 140 points conceded on four away trips
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Castres Olympique vs Racing 92
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Castres Olympique vs Racing 92: 69 points conceded on Sunday, and a home record that still stands up 
Castres conceded 69 points at Montpellier on Sunday and scored 10. That result took their points difference to minus 78, with only Vannes worse in the Top 14 on minus 81, and it sits underneath everything we’ve looked at for Saturday 7 November, 15:35 UK time, when Racing 92 visit the Stade Pierre-Fabre in round nine.
The table gives this game its weight. Castres are 12th on 13 points. Racing are 13th on 11, the relegation play-off place, and six points clear of Vannes at the bottom.
A home win would put at least five points between Castres and Racing. A Racing win would swap the two clubs over, and with Castres having won three times in eight rounds and Racing twice, neither has much of a cushion left.
We’d separate the sides on venue. Castres have won three of their four league games at Pierre-Fabre, and the defeat was 8-7 to Toulouse, the league leaders. Racing have won once in four away, and they’ve given up 140 points on those four trips.
The bookmakers lean the same way, with Castres at 1.53 and Racing at 2.55. We’ve looked hard at whether Sunday’s scoreline should move us off the home side, and our answer is no, for reasons that sit in the venue splits and not in the league table.
Castres Olympique: under 16 points a game conceded at home, and the lowest attack in the division 
Castres have scored 152 points in eight games, the lowest total in the Top 14. Vannes are next on 169 and La Rochelle have 187, so the gap to the next weakest attack is 17 points.
Split the season by ground and they look like two different clubs. At Pierre-Fabre they’ve beaten Vannes 29-20, Toulon 29-27 and Stade Français 16-8, and lost 8-7 to Toulouse. That’s 63 points conceded in four games, or fewer than 16 a match.
Away, they’ve conceded 167 in four: 43 at Perpignan, 20 at Clermont, 35 at Pau and 69 at Montpellier. Sunday was the heaviest of those defeats by some distance, and we’d treat it as part of an away pattern that hasn’t yet crossed over to their home form.
The win over Stade Français on 24 October is the closest guide to Saturday. Adrea Cocagi scored the only try, Louis Le Brun converted it and kicked two penalties, and Jérémy Fernandez added a penalty in the 63rd minute. Forwards coach Julien Tastet said afterwards that the pack struggled at the scrum and lost four lineout throws.
That set-piece work is the area we’d watch. Castres won that game despite losing four throws, and they’ve won at home on modest attacking returns all season, 81 points in four games. Against a defence that has let in 253, a total in the low twenties should be enough.
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Racing 92: three straight defeats and 140 points conceded on four away trips 
Racing’s season opened with a 64-5 defeat at Bordeaux-Bègles on 5 September, and they’ve spent the two months since trying to recover. Eight rounds have brought two wins, 190 points scored and 253 conceded.
The two wins point in opposite directions. They beat La Rochelle 20-10 in round three, their only away win so far, and they put 55 points on Perpignan at home on 3 October. Every other game has ended in defeat.
The last three have all been losses: 29-15 at Toulon, 20-17 at home to Montpellier and 37-30 at Clermont on 31 October. The Montpellier game is the one that argues for them, because the same opponents have since scored 69 against Castres.
Scoring 30 at Clermont shows the attack can work away from home. It also came in a game where they let in 37, and that has been the running theme. Racing have conceded 20 or more in seven of their eight league games, the exception being that win over La Rochelle.
We have no confirmed team news for either club at the time of writing, and the official squads are due closer to Saturday. Lineups could shift our read on the margin, though not on which ground has produced the better results this season.
Probable lineup Castres Olympique: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Racing 92: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Castres Olympique vs Racing 92
Our prediction: Castres Olympique to win (1.53)
We’re backing the home side at 1.53. Castres have conceded 15.75 points a game at Pierre-Fabre, and the only visitors to win there did so by a single point. Racing have scored 70 points on their four away trips, 17.5 a game, and 30 of those came in one match at Clermont.
Castres have just lost by 59, and the head-to-head offers little help, with Castres ahead 3-2 over the last five meetings and Racing winning the most recent. We’d still weigh four home games against one bad afternoon in Montpellier, where Perpignan also shipped 50 and Toulon lost 28-0.
A draw is priced at 23.00, so the market sees a clear result one way or the other. We’d stick to the outright win and leave the handicap alone, since Castres have won their home games by nine, two and eight points.
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