- 1 New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils: Hellebuyck’s .923 against an 86.36% penalty kill
- 2 New York Islanders: Barzal skating alone, and Sorokin holding the rest together
- 3 New Jersey Devils: 32.6 shots a game and a Sunday trip to Toronto to plan for
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils: Hellebuyck’s .923 against an 86.36% penalty kill 
New Jersey’s goaltenders had a combined .880 save percentage, 23rd in the league, on the morning of 23 October. That day the Devils traded Dawson Mercer, Nico Daws, prospect Alexander Command and two draft picks to Winnipeg for Connor Hellebuyck. In his first two starts he went 2-0-0 with a 1.50 goals-against average and a .923 save percentage.
The Devils visit UBS Arena on Saturday 7 November, puck drop 7:00pm ET. It’s a Metropolitan Division game between teams at 9-5-0 and 7-5-2 before this week’s results, with New Jersey on 18 points and New York on 16, and it comes at the end of a heavy week for both.
New Jersey hosts Edmonton on Tuesday and St. Louis on Thursday, then plays Toronto at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday, which makes this the first half of a back-to-back. The Islanders have the longer break. They’ve had no game since Saturday’s 4-0 home loss to Edmonton and host Carolina on Thursday.
Special teams are the weak spot on both benches, in different places. The Islanders’ penalty kill runs at 86.36%, while their power play has seven goals from 40 chances, 17.5%. The Devils’ power play is at 16.7%, 25th in the league, and their penalty kill is at 70.0%, also 25th.
New Jersey takes 5.6 penalty minutes a game, the fewest in the NHL, so the Islanders’ best way into this game doesn’t come along very often. At even strength the Devils take 32.6 shots a night, second in the league, and allow 24.8.
New York Islanders: Barzal skating alone, and Sorokin holding the rest together 
Mathew Barzal hasn’t played this season. He was announced out for two weeks before training camp, nearly 50 days before the end of October, and he’s skating on his own with no change in his status and no return date.
The middle of the lineup has thinned further. Calum Ritchie, the No. 2 center, got a four-to-six-week timetable with a lower-body injury from the 17 October win over Toronto and hadn’t started skating by 31 October. Alexander Romanov is out with a knee injury. Matias Maccelli, hurt in the same game as Ritchie, is skating and could be available from Thursday.
Ryan Pulock’s status needs checking as well. He left a recent game early with an upper-body injury, and Isaiah George was recalled from Hamilton to replace him on the blue line.
Bo Horvat and Matthew Schaefer share the team lead with 14 points each, Horvat with seven goals and Schaefer with 10 assists from the blue line. Brayden Schenn has nine points and Emil Heineman and Victor Eklund have formed a line with him in the middle of the order. New York scores 3.08 goals a game and allows 2.69.
Ilya Sorokin is the reason the Islanders are above .500. He was 6-3-0 with a 2.34 goals-against average through October and carries a .915 save percentage, while Semyon Varlamov is 1-1-2 at .891. New York’s last three results were a 4-3 shootout win in Nashville, a 4-3 overtime win in Minnesota and the shutout loss to Edmonton.
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New Jersey Devils: 32.6 shots a game and a Sunday trip to Toronto to plan for 
Since 22 October the Devils have beaten Anaheim 4-1, Los Angeles 3-1, Dallas 5-1 and Vegas 5-2. The only defeat in that stretch was 5-2 in Colorado on 28 October, the night Jake Allen started instead of Hellebuyck and faced 44 shots.
That split frames the goaltending question for this weekend. New Jersey plays on Saturday and Sunday, and Hellebuyck can’t reasonably start both ends with Thursday’s game against St. Louis in between. We’d expect him here, given the divisional opponent, but the Devils hadn’t confirmed anything at the time of writing.
Jack Hughes leads the team with 16 points and scored twice in Vegas on Friday. Arseny Gritsyuk scored twice in the same game and has eight goals, Nico Hischier has seven, and Jesper Bratt has 10 assists. Four forwards with real finishing numbers makes New Jersey harder to match than the Islanders’ current forward group.
Luke Hughes scored the fifth goal in Las Vegas and plays on the top pair with Brett Pesce, who’s plus-13. Seamus Casey (knee) is the only player on injured reserve and won’t be back before at least 21 November.
The penalty kill remains the concern. At 70.0%, New Jersey has given up a power-play goal on three of every ten chances. That’s an average the Islanders’ 17.5% power play isn’t built to punish, but Horvat and Schaefer will see more of the ice if the Devils hand them a chance.
Probable lineup New York Islanders: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New Jersey Devils: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: New York Islanders vs New Jersey Devils
Our prediction: New Jersey Devils to win (moneyline)
We’re backing the road team, and the pick rests on what the Islanders can’t currently do. Without Barzal, Ritchie and possibly Maccelli, their top scorer from the forward group has 14 points, and they were shut out on home ice on Saturday. New Jersey has won four of five since 22 October and outshoots almost everyone, and its record since the trade doesn’t depend on special teams.
Sorokin’s .915 is the main argument against us, and he’s capable of stealing this one on his own. The Islanders are also the fresher team. We’d take the Devils anyway, and we’d withdraw the pick if Allen starts, because the Colorado game showed how differently New Jersey defends in front of him.
Lines weren’t posted at the time of writing. We expect something close to even, well above our 1.45 minimum, with the price moving once the starting goalies are known.
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