- 1 Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz: 41 free throws conceded in one night, and Jackson out until December
- 2 Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s 55.7% shooting, and a 40-point fourth quarter against Houston
- 3 Utah Jazz: four straight losses, 17.5 turnovers and a 3-for-14 night from Markkanen
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz: 41 free throws conceded in one night, and Jackson out until December 
Portland attempted 41 free throws in Salt Lake City on 31 October and scored 34 points from the line. The Trail Blazers beat Utah 112-90 that night, the Jazz committed 20 turnovers that became 20 Portland points, and they left the Delta Center 1-5 with a fourth straight loss.
Utah’s next two games are in San Antonio on Monday and New Orleans on Wednesday, and then it reaches American Airlines Center for an NBA Cup game on Friday 6 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET.
Dallas is a different proposition from the team that went through last season. The Mavericks are 4-2 and had won three straight before Monday’s home game against Sacramento: 113-109 in Miami, 120-96 over Oklahoma City and 116-111 over Houston, the first defeat of the season for the Rockets.
The Jazz offense ranks 27th in the league at 105.3 points per 100 possessions, and during the four-game skid it has scored 107.3 a night on 42.6% shooting. Dallas is shooting 49% as a team and blocking 6.8 shots a game.
Two absences frame Utah’s week. Jaren Jackson Jr. tore the MCL in his right knee and faces six to eight weeks out, and Jusuf Nurkic has been out since a partial plantar plate tear in his right foot, with a four-week minimum announced on 7 October that puts a return around this game at the earliest.
We see this as a mismatch at the rim, and the numbers back it up. Utah ranks 30th in the league in rim frequency and first in mid-range frequency, and Dallas is the team blocking 6.8 shots a game.
Dallas Mavericks: Flagg’s 55.7% shooting, and a 40-point fourth quarter against Houston 
Cooper Flagg is averaging 26.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists on 55.7% shooting in his second season. He scored 33 with nine rebounds and six assists against Houston, and Dusty May has publicly praised the pairing of Flagg and Irving as one that stretches opposing defenses.
Kyrie Irving scored 35 on 12-of-19 shooting that same night, with five threes and nine assists. Irving came back this season after more than 19 months out with a torn left ACL, and Dallas has listed him as questionable under left knee injury management before games, so his status on Friday needs checking. He’s played through that designation so far.
The Mavericks scored 40 in the fourth quarter against Houston after trailing by 11 in the second half. Two nights earlier they put a game out of reach with an 11-0 run after halftime against Oklahoma City.
Daniel Gafford has held the center spot without Dereck Lively II, scoring 18 against the Rockets. P.J. Washington leads the team at 8.2 rebounds a game, and Caleb Martin returned from a sprained right thumb against Houston with eight points in 25 minutes.
The injury list isn’t short. Lively is out following foot surgery, Santi Aldama was doubtful after knee surgery, and Sergio de Larrea and Tarik Biberovic have also missed time.
Turnovers are the number we’d watch. Dallas was giving the ball away 17.0 times a game before last week, and Flagg alone averages 3.0. Utah ranks 30th in forcing them, though, which makes this the right opponent for a team with that habit.
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Utah Jazz: four straight losses, 17.5 turnovers and a 3-for-14 night from Markkanen 
Utah’s lone win so far is a 120-119 game against New Orleans. Since then it has lost to the Lakers, Memphis, San Antonio in overtime and Portland, and the last of those was the most worrying: 29-of-78 from the field, 11-of-40 from three and a 48-37 deficit on the boards.
Lauri Markkanen went 3-of-14 for 13 points in his return from a one-game absence. Keyonte George, who signed a five-year, $157.5 million extension in September, scored eight on 2-of-10 shooting, and the 90 points were the lowest of the Jazz’s season by 13.
Darryn Peterson led the team with 16, on 6-of-15 shooting with three threes. The rookie guard has had a slow start by the standard set for a No. 2 pick, and Will Hardy sat him through overtime in the 117-111 loss to the Spurs on 28 October.
Hardy has spent the past week talking about decision-making, particularly for George and Isaiah Collier, whose forced passes have fed a team turning it over 17.5 times a game during the skid. Utah ranks 24th in turnover percentage for the season.
The defense sits 23rd at 115.4 points per 100 possessions. It ranks 29th in opponent free-throw rate, which is the column Portland exploited, and Flagg shoots 85.3% from the line. Markkanen said afterward that the fouling had been a problem.
Jackson and Nurkic are Hardy’s two main paint defenders and screeners, and neither has been available during this skid. Trey Alexander has also been out with a left knee bone bruise. Utah beat Dallas 116-114 last January, but this roster has changed too much for that to matter.
Probable lineup Dallas Mavericks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Utah Jazz: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz
Our prediction: Dallas Mavericks to win by 8 points or more (handicap -7.5)
Dallas has the two best players in this game and a defense allowing 111.8 points a night. Utah has scored 107.3 during a four-game losing streak, ranks 27th on offense and comes in on its third road game in five nights, without Jackson and possibly without Nurkic.
The main risk is Irving’s knee. If he sits, the margin narrows, because Flagg would then carry nearly all of the creation against a team with little to lose. We’d reassess this pick if he’s ruled out before tip-off.
Lines hadn’t been posted at the time of writing. The moneyline should be too short for us, so we prefer the handicap and would only take it at 1.45 or longer.
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