Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors – Free NBA Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors: a 48-21 second quarter, and Toronto’s last stop on the road

Cleveland outscored Milwaukee 48-21 in the second quarter at Fiserv Forum on 31 October. The Bucks had led 25-24 after 12 minutes, trailed 72-46 at halftime and lost 136-111, and that game left them 1-5 going into this week.

Toronto visits on Friday 6 November, tip-off 8:00pm ET, in an NBA Cup game. The Raptors are 3-3 and arrive at the end of a long Western trip, with games against the Lakers, the Clippers and Denver before they fly to Wisconsin.

We’ve looked at that schedule closely, because it’s the strongest argument for the home team. Toronto will be playing its fourth game in six nights. Milwaukee, meanwhile, plays in Minnesota on Monday and in Boston on Wednesday, so it comes home off a road game of its own with the same single day of rest.

Across six games the Bucks have allowed 126.2 points a night. Washington scored 128, Chicago 132, Philadelphia 127, Houston 132 and Cleveland 136. Only Indiana, held to 102 on 26 October, came in under 120, and that game remains Milwaukee’s lone win.

Toronto’s numbers run in the opposite direction, even after a rough weekend. The Raptors held their first four opponents to 102.5 points a game, the fewest in the league at that point, before Orlando scored 121 and the Lakers 131.

Scottie Barnes scored 41 against the Magic and 29 in Los Angeles. He’s the main reason we think Toronto can absorb the absence of Kawhi Leonard, who isn’t expected back until later this month.

Milwaukee Bucks: 126.2 points allowed, and 5-of-18 from Herro in the Cleveland loss

This is the first season after Giannis Antetokounmpo, and the three players who came back from Miami are doing most of the work. Tyler Herro leads the team at 22.0 points a game and is shooting 44.7% from three. Jaime Jaquez Jr. adds 16.2, and Kel’el Ware gives Taylor Jenkins 13.0 points and a team-high 8.7 rebounds.

Herro’s numbers fell away against Cleveland, when he scored 15 on 5-of-18 shooting. Ware led the Bucks that night with 19 points and 10 rebounds, a line that shows where the offense can still find something when the perimeter goes cold.

The rookies gave Jenkins a small lift. Brayden Burries scored 14 on 4-of-7 shooting and Nate Ament added 14 on 6-of-8.

Jenkins said after that defeat that his team hadn’t found consistency in who plays with whom. Six games in, that’s a fair description of a roster still working out its rotations.

The defense is the larger concern. Giving up 126.2 points a game would put any team near the bottom of the league, and the Bucks sat 28th in points allowed before Cleveland added 136 to that total.

Fiserv Forum hasn’t helped much either. Milwaukee is 1-3 there, with home defeats to Chicago, Houston and Cleveland, and it lost both of its first two road games by double digits.

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Toronto Raptors: Barnes at 41 and 29, with 12.4 steals a game covering for 30.4% from three

Leonard’s left knee has limited him to two games. The Raptors first called the swelling a short absence, then the timeline moved to at least three to four weeks on 29 October. He averaged 19.5 points on 32% shooting in those two appearances, so Toronto’s early results owe little to him.

Barnes has taken over. His 41 against Orlando on 30 October was a career high, on 19-of-34 shooting, and he followed it with 29 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals at the Lakers on Sunday. RJ Barrett added 22 points, 10 rebounds and five assists in that game.

Toronto lost it 131-125, largely because Luka Doncic made 8 of 12 threes on his way to 45 points. That doesn’t say much about what Milwaukee can do, although Herro’s 44.7% from three is the type of perimeter threat that has hurt the Raptors this month.

The three-point line remains Toronto’s weakness at both ends. The team shot 30.4% from deep through four games, and Orlando went 18-of-34 against it on 30 October.

Toronto’s defense starts with its hands. It averaged 12.4 steals a game through that opening stretch, and Immanuel Quickley added 17.5 points and 5.5 assists. Ja’Kobe Walter has started in Leonard’s spot and was hitting 40.7% of his threes.

Nate Bittle has also missed time with a foot injury, and Jakob Poeltl was listed as doubtful before being expected to start against the Clippers. Depth up front is the area we’d check on Friday afternoon.

Probable lineup Milwaukee Bucks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toronto Raptors: Not announced at time of publication

Free NBA Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs Toronto Raptors

Our prediction: Toronto Raptors to win

Milwaukee has allowed at least 127 points in five of six games, and Barnes has scored 70 points in Toronto’s last two games. We side with the road team on defense and turnovers, the two areas where these rosters are furthest apart.

The argument against us is fatigue. Fourth game in six nights, at altitude two days earlier, is a real cost, and Milwaukee’s shooters can make a tired defense pay. We still can’t back a team at 1-3 at home that has given up 126.2 a night until its defense shows something different.

Lines hadn’t been posted at the time of writing. We’d take Toronto on the moneyline at 1.50 or longer, and we’d check Barnes and Quickley on the injury report after the Denver game.

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