Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg – Free Conference League Prediction

Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg: five home wins and nothing conceded at Papara Park

Trabzonspor have played five home games in their last ten matches, won all five and conceded none. SC Freiburg walk into that record at Papara Park on Thursday 5 November, kick-off 17:45 UK time, with one win from their last four away games and a 3-0 defeat at Monaco from the previous Conference League round.

The table after two rounds has the sides 15 places apart. Trabzonspor are third on six points with a 6-2 goal record, built on a 4-2 win at KuPS and a 2-0 win over Hearts in which they finished with ten men. Freiburg are 18th on three, having beaten Jablonec 3-2 at home before the trip to Monaco.

Seven straight wins in all competitions lead into this one. The latest came on Sunday, 2-0 against Gaziantep, with Stefan Savic scoring in first-half stoppage time and Ernest Muci adding the second on 61 minutes. That result lifted Trabzonspor to third in the Süper Lig, behind leaders Galatasaray.

Prices of around 2.75 for Trabzonspor, 3.53 for the draw and 2.56 for Freiburg make the visitors slight favourites. We think that leans too heavily on the Bundesliga name and not enough on what both sides have done lately.

The clubs have never met. Each plays a league match three days after this one, and rotation is expected on both sides: Trabzonspor have kept 47% of their starting XI from game to game over the last six matches, Freiburg 44%.

Trabzonspor: seven wins running, with a home defence that the expected goals don’t fully back

Those five home wins produced 15 goals and no reply. No visiting side has found the net in that run, so both teams haven’t scored in any of the five.

We wouldn’t expect a sixth clean sheet as a matter of course. Over the same ten-match sample Trabzonspor have allowed 1.52 expected goals a game at home, which means opponents have been getting chances and missing them, or running into André Onana. Their own 1.68 expected goals at home sits well below the 3.00 they’ve actually scored.

Away from Papara Park the numbers loosen. They’ve scored 2.40 and conceded 1.60 a game on the road, and both teams have scored in 60% of those matches. Even so, the last three of those five away games were wins, and the 4-2 at KuPS came in this competition.

The injury list runs to four certain absentees. Ruslan Malinovskyi, Okay Yokuslu and Batagov are all out with knee problems, and goalkeeper Onuralp Cevikkan has a tendon injury. Paul Onuachu’s muscle problem is the live question, with reports split between doubtful and out, and Saviolo is also a doubt. Franculino is the forward most likely to carry the load if neither is ready.

Savic is listed as a doubt too, despite scoring on Sunday. His goal came from a Mohamed Salah corner that Muci flicked on, and set-pieces from Salah, at the club since this summer, give Trabzonspor a route to goal that doesn’t depend on who starts up front.

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SC Freiburg: 2.00 conceded a game away and no clean sheet on the road

Freiburg’s last ten matches split sharply by venue. At home they’ve taken 2.50 points a game and scored 3.00. Away it’s 1.00 point a game, with 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded, and none of those four games ended in a clean sheet.

Julian Schuster’s side went through a run of three straight defeats inside that sample before winning their last two. The most recent was a 2-1 win at Augsburg in the Bundesliga, their only away victory in the four games counted here.

The case for the visitors sits in the underlying figures. Freiburg have allowed 1.15 expected goals a game overall and created 1.64, better defensive numbers than Trabzonspor’s 1.62 against. Away from home those figures come to 1.37 for and 1.35 against, which is close to level, and their results have been worse than that balance suggests.

Two rounds of this competition have cost them five goals. They let in two at home to Jablonec, then three in Monaco, and both teams have scored in 75% of their away games over the last ten. One of those four away games also ended with Freiburg failing to score.

Treu (ankle) and Berkay Yilmaz (match fitness) are out. Engelhardt is reported as injured by one team sheet and named in the expected XI by another, Makengo has a muscle problem and Scherhant a foot injury. Igor Matanovic is expected to lead the line, with Yuito Suzuki and Beste behind him.

Probable lineup Trabzonspor: Onana; Pina, Özkaçar, Cabral, Akaydin; Salah, Kabasakal, Simsir; Franculino, Saviolo (doubt), Onuachu (doubt)
Probable lineup SC Freiburg: Backhaus; Ginter, Makengo (doubt), Lienhart, Kübler; Eggestein, Suzuki, Beste, Engelhardt (doubt), Scherhant (doubt); Matanovic

Free Conference League Prediction: Trabzonspor vs SC Freiburg

Our prediction: Trabzonspor to win (odds 2.75)

Trabzonspor have won seven in a row, all five recent home games among them, and they sit 15 places above a Freiburg side that has taken one point a game on its travels. We’d price the home side well inside 2.75, and that gap is the reason for the pick.

Freiburg’s expected-goal numbers are the argument against us, and Trabzonspor’s clean-sheet run at home is stronger than their 1.52 expected goals against would predict. Onuachu’s fitness is unresolved as well, and three more Trabzonspor regulars are already out with knee injuries.

We still prefer the team with the results over the team with the model. A 2-1 home win is the score we expect, which would also end the run of home clean sheets.

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