- 1 Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: La Liga’s tightest defence meets Europe’s unbeaten Belgians
- 2 Celta Vigo: a back three built to frustrate, an attack that struggles to finish
- 3 Union Saint-Gilloise: seven different scorers in Europe and one point off the top in Belgium
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise: La Liga’s tightest defence meets Europe’s unbeaten Belgians 
Celta Vigo went to Vallecas on Saturday having conceded seven goals in ten La Liga games, the fewest in the division. They came home having conceded three more, beaten 3-0 by Rayo Vallecano, with Jorge de Frutos scoring twice.
That result ended a seven-game unbeaten run in the league, but it’s the context around it that matters for Thursday. Claudio Giráldez’s side have been built on defence this season, scoring only ten goals in their first ten league games, and the two Europa League defeats they’ve suffered both came by a single goal.
They lost 1-0 at Omonia on the opening night, then 2-1 at Balaídos to Juventus on 15 October, before coming from behind to win 2-1 at Celtic on 22 October. Three points from three games leaves them needing a home win to stay in touch with the play-off places.
Union Saint-Gilloise arrive with seven points and no defeats. David Hubert’s side won 3-0 at Viktoria Plzeň, drew 1-1 with Real Sociedad and then beat Hapoel Beer-Sheva 4-0 in Düsseldorf, where they’ve been forced to play their home European games this season.
Kick-off is on Thursday 5 November at 20:00 UK time. The market makes Celta favourites at 1.95, with the draw at 3.75 and Union at 3.25.
I think that underrates the visitors. To see why, it helps to look at where each side’s goals have come from over the last two months.
Celta Vigo: a back three built to frustrate, an attack that struggles to finish 
Giráldez took Celta to sixth in La Liga last season, and this year’s side has kept the same defensive habits. Before Saturday they’d drawn six of their ten league games, including 0-0 against Real Betis and Elche and 1-1 against Getafe and Málaga.
The scoring record is the weakness. Ten goals in ten games became ten in eleven after the Rayo defeat, and five of them came in a single afternoon, the 5-0 win over Racing de Santander. Take that match out and Celta have scored five times in ten league games.
The squad is also short. Borja Iglesias, Carl Starfelt, Álvaro Núñez, Miguel Román and Jones El Abdellaoui were all expected to miss the trip to Rayo, which takes Borja Iglesias out of the attack and Starfelt out of the defence.
Ferran Jutglà was dropped against Betis but was expected to return up front, with Ilaix Moriba in midfield. The usual shape is a back three of Javi Rodríguez, Lago and Alonso, with Rueda and Galán as wing-backs.
The win at Celtic Park showed Celta can respond to going behind. The Juventus game, on the other hand, showed how thin the margins are at home: one goal conceded against a stronger side, and nothing left once they had to chase.
That home record in Europe matters here. Celta haven’t won a European game at Balaídos this season, and the visitors on Thursday have scored eight goals in three games.
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Union Saint-Gilloise: seven different scorers in Europe and one point off the top in Belgium 
Union’s season has very few gaps in it. They’re second in the Pro League with 26 points from ten games, one behind Club Brugge, and their recent league results include 5-2 against Cercle Brugge, 3-2 at Charleroi, 3-0 at Sint-Truiden and 2-0 at Antwerp.
The Europa League record is just as consistent. Seven different players have scored for Union in three European games, which makes the side harder to stop than one leaning on a single striker.
The 4-0 against Beer-Sheva on 22 October showed that depth. Raúl Florucz came on early for the injured Mateo Biondic, won a penalty and scored it before half-time, Guilherme Smith scored twice in the second half and Dylan Aquino, signed from Lanús in the summer, got his first goal for the club after replacing Darius Olaru.
Those two injuries are the main team news. Biondic, who scored in the 3-0 win over Anderlecht in August and opened the scoring at Antwerp in September, and Olaru both went off against Beer-Sheva, and their fitness will shape Hubert’s line-up in Vigo.
The only European blemish so far is the 1-1 draw with Real Sociedad. Union went to Plzeň on the opening night and won 3-0 without much trouble, the kind of away performance that travels well to a side in Celta’s current form.
Genk visit on 8 November, so Hubert has a big league game to plan around. That hasn’t affected Union before: they’ve played midweek European games since mid-September and kept collecting points in Belgium.
Probable lineup Celta Vigo: Radu; Javi Rodríguez, Lago, Alonso; Rueda, Moriba, Febas, Galán; González, Jutglà, Álvarez
Probable lineup Union Saint-Gilloise: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Our prediction: Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (double chance)
Celta are favourites at 1.95, but their attack has scored five league goals outside one 5-0 afternoon, they’ve just lost 3-0 at Rayo and they’re missing Borja Iglesias and Starfelt. Their only European win came away from home.
Union are unbeaten in Europe, second in Belgium and scoring from all over the pitch. Even with Biondic and Olaru doubtful, the squad has shown it can absorb absences, with Florucz and Aquino both scoring off the bench against Beer-Sheva.
Celta’s defence makes a draw a realistic outcome, so I’m covering it rather than taking Union’s outright price of 3.25. The way I read this game, Celta don’t have the goals to beat a side in Union’s form.
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