- 1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks: a perfect home record against a team without a road point
- 2 Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s 18 points and six straight home wins
- 3 Chicago Blackhawks: 2.08 goals a game and a 10% power play
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks: a perfect home record against a team without a road point 
Chicago has played five road games this season and lost all five in regulation, scoring seven goals and allowing 23. The defeats came 5-2 in Vegas, 6-0 in Utah, 4-3 in Buffalo, 4-1 on Long Island and 4-1 in Detroit on 29 October.
Tampa Bay is the opposite case at home. The Lightning have won all six games they’ve played at Amalie Arena, against Washington, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Seattle, Vancouver and Winnipeg, and five of those six wins came in regulation. The most recent was a 6-4 win over the Jets on 29 October.
The two teams meet on Thursday 5 November in Tampa, with puck drop at 7:00pm ET, which is midnight UK time. For Chicago it’s the second night of a back-to-back: the Blackhawks play in Sunrise against Florida at 7:30pm ET on Wednesday and then make the short trip across the state.
The standings put the gap into context. Tampa Bay is 8-3-2 with 18 points, fourth in the Atlantic Division, after a 5-4 shootout loss in Nashville on Halloween. Chicago went into the weekend at 4-9-0 with 8 points, last in the Central Division, before Saturday’s game in Boston.
What decides the matchup, I think, is how little Chicago scores. The Blackhawks average 2.08 goals per game, and their total ranks 31st of 32 teams. Their power play has converted four of 40 chances, 10.0%. A team that scores this rarely, with or without the extra man, has very little margin on the second night of a back-to-back in a building where the home side hasn’t lost.
Tampa Bay Lightning: Kucherov’s 18 points and six straight home wins 
Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 18 points, 4 goals and 14 assists, from 13 games. Brandon Hagel and Jake Guentzel have 8 goals each, Hagel with 16 points and Guentzel with 14, and Brayden Point has 11.
The Lightning score 3.69 goals per game and their total ranks ninth in the league. The production comes from the top six and from the blue line: John Carlson has 5 goals, one of them in Nashville on Saturday, and Victor Hedman also scored in that game.
The power play is the part of Jon Cooper’s team that hasn’t worked. It has converted seven of 46 chances, 15.2%, which is low for a group with Kucherov, Point and Guentzel on it. Against Chicago’s penalty kill, which sits at 78.0%, that unit is unlikely to be the deciding factor.
Goaltending has been steady rather than sharp. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 5-3-1 with an .883 save percentage and a 2.89 goals-against average in nine games, and he made 29 saves on 33 shots in Nashville. Dennis Hildeby is 2-0-1 in three appearances with an .885.
Away from home the Lightning are 2-3-2. They lost 5-1 and 4-1 at Madison Square Garden and 6-3 in Colorado, then dropped extra-time games in Utah and Nashville. At Amalie Arena they’ve allowed 13 goals in six games, and that home defensive record is the main reason to trust them on Thursday.
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Chicago Blackhawks: 2.08 goals a game and a 10% power play 
Patrick Kane leads Chicago with 8 points, 1 goal and 7 assists. Connor Bedard has 3 goals and 7 points, and Roman Kantserov leads the team with 5 goals. No Blackhawk has more than five, which is how a team ends up with 27 goals in 13 games.
Jeff Blashill’s team has had nights where it competed. Chicago beat St. Louis 4-2, Pittsburgh 5-3 and Winnipeg 4-3 in overtime, and it beat Los Angeles 2-1 on 27 October. All four of those wins came at United Center.
On the road, the attack has almost disappeared. Seven goals in five away games works out to 1.4 a night, and the Blackhawks were shut out 6-0 in Utah on 1 October. Their last road game, the 4-1 loss in Detroit on 29 October, followed the same pattern, with one goal or fewer for the third time in five road games.
Spencer Knight has carried most of the goaltending load. He’s 4-7-0 in 11 games with an .897 save percentage and a 3.21 goals-against average. Arvid Soderblom is 0-2-0 with an .820, and the back-to-back may force Blashill to choose which of the Florida and Tampa Bay games Knight starts.
The defensive numbers aren’t much better. Chicago allows 3.69 goals per game, and its goals-against total ranks 27th. The penalty kill, at 78.0%, is close to league average, so most of the damage comes at even strength: Dallas won 4-0 and Montreal 4-1 at United Center in October.
Probable lineup Tampa Bay Lightning: Lines not announced at time of publication. Projected core: Andrei Vasilevskiy in goal; Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel, Jake Guentzel, Anthony Cirelli, Pontus Holmberg; Victor Hedman, John Carlson on defense.
Probable lineup Chicago Blackhawks: Lines not announced at time of publication. Projected core: Spencer Knight or Arvid Soderblom in goal; Connor Bedard, Patrick Kane, Teuvo Teravainen, Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov, Tyler Bertuzzi, Frank Nazar; Wyatt Kaiser on defense.
Free NHL Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Chicago Blackhawks
Our prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning to win in regulation
I’m backing Tampa Bay in 60 minutes. The Lightning are 6-0 at home with five regulation wins, and they face a team that has scored seven goals in five road games, converts 10% of its power plays and plays the night before in Florida.
The one thing that could keep this close is Tampa Bay’s own power play, which has scored on only 15.2% of its chances, and a goaltender in Vasilevskiy whose save percentage sits under .890. If Chicago gets an early lead and Knight is sharp, the Blackhawks are capable of dragging the game into overtime, as they did against Winnipeg in October.
No odds had been posted for this game at the time of writing. The straight moneyline is likely to be short, so the regulation price is the one to look at: if it comes in below 1.45, the Lightning -1.5 puck line is the alternative. Confirm Chicago’s starting goalie on Thursday, since the back-to-back makes a Soderblom start possible.
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