- 1 Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat: a rested home team against Miami’s third game in four nights
- 2 Golden State Warriors: three straight wins and 22 threes in the Lakers rout
- 3 Miami Heat: Antetokounmpo leads the league in made field goals, but the defense ranks 24th
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat: a rested home team against Miami’s third game in four nights 
Miami lost its first four games of the season by 25, 17, 5 and 4 points. Then the Heat won twice in three days: 129-117 in Atlanta on 28 October and 145-125 at home against Indiana on 30 October, a night on which Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 31 points, 18 rebounds and 10 assists.
Those two wins changed the mood around a team that traded for Antetokounmpo in June, but they didn’t change the shape of the schedule. Thursday 5 November in San Francisco is the last stop of a three-game West Coast trip, and it comes less than 24 hours after Miami plays the Clippers in a 10:30pm ET tip-off on Wednesday. Tip-off at Chase Center is 10:00pm ET, which is 3:00am UK time on Friday.
Golden State’s week looks very different. The Warriors host the Clippers on Sunday and Phoenix on Monday, then get Tuesday and Wednesday off before Miami arrives. Two full days of rest matter for a team that has leaned heavily on Stephen Curry, who’s averaging 29.2 points through five appearances.
The Warriors have also found some rhythm after a slow start. They lost their first three games, to the Lakers, Memphis and Phoenix, then won in Denver, in Minneapolis and at home against the Lakers. The last of those was a 112-95 win in which they made 22 of 46 threes and outscored Los Angeles 38-15 in the second quarter.
I’d put the most weight on the defensive numbers. Miami allows 121.5 points per game, 25th in the NBA, and its defensive rating of 117.3 ranks 24th. Those are the figures that usually get worse on the second night of a back-to-back at the end of a road trip, because tired legs show up first in closeouts and transition defense.
Golden State Warriors: three straight wins and 22 threes in the Lakers rout 
Stephen Curry has scored 44 and 31 in his last two games. The 44 came in Minnesota on 28 October, on 11-of-27 shooting with six threes, and it carried a 119-114 win in which no teammate scored more than 26. Two nights later he had 31 points and six assists against the Lakers.
Curry is shooting 44.0% from three, but the more useful development for Steve Kerr is what’s happening around him. Yaxel Lendeborg, the rookie forward, is averaging 19.8 points and 7.8 rebounds through six games and scored 26 in Minneapolis. Brandin Podziemski is at 16.3 points and 5.0 assists, and he added 21 against the Lakers.
That support matters because the Warriors are still short of bodies. Jimmy Butler is working back from a torn ACL and had only reached very light on-court activity at the end of September. Moses Moody is also on the way back from the torn left patellar tendon he suffered in March, and Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played this season and still has no timeline for a return.
Without Butler and Porzingis, the frontcourt is thin. Draymond Green is averaging 3.0 points and 7.2 assists, which reflects how he’s being used: as the passer at the top of the floor rather than as a scorer. Al Horford came off the bench for 16 minutes against the Lakers, and Gui Santos started that night at forward.
Golden State’s offensive rating of 117.7 ranks sixth in the league. The defense is the weak point, with a rating of 116.4 that sits 22nd and 115.3 points allowed per game. Against a Miami team that has scored 129 and 145 in its last two outings, that defense is the first thing that could undo this pick.
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Miami Heat: Antetokounmpo leads the league in made field goals, but the defense ranks 24th 
Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.2 points, 12.3 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 31.5 minutes, and his 11.3 made field goals per game lead the NBA. Nearly all of that production comes inside the arc. He’s shooting 28.6% from three, and 10.7 of his 11.3 makes a night are two-pointers.
Bam Adebayo has adjusted his game around him. He scored 24 in Atlanta and 27 against Indiana, and he’s averaging 16.3 points and 7.8 rebounds, even though his three-point percentage sits at 14.3%. Davion Mitchell runs the offense with 8.2 assists per game, and Klay Thompson gave Miami a third scorer against the Pacers with 25 points.
The 145-125 win over Indiana showed what this group looks like when the shots fall. Miami went 54 of 93 from the field, 58.1%, and 18 of 40 from three. The Pacers, playing without Ivica Zubac and Obi Toppin, still scored 125 and put up 42 points in the first quarter.
That has been the story of Miami’s season so far. The Heat score 118.3 points per game, eighth in the league, and allow 121.5. Minnesota scored 131 on them on opening night, Detroit scored 128 two nights later, and even in the win in Atlanta the Hawks reached 117.
The schedule works against Erik Spoelstra as well. Miami plays the Lakers on Monday at 10:00pm ET and the Clippers on Wednesday at 10:30pm ET, which means a late finish in Los Angeles and a flight north before a 10:00pm ET tip in San Francisco the following night. It’s the third game in four nights, and the last of a trip that started on Monday.
Probable lineup Golden State Warriors: Brandin Podziemski, Stephen Curry, Gui Santos, Yaxel Lendeborg, Draymond Green (starting five on 30 October against the Lakers)
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Davion Mitchell, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo (starting five on 30 October against Indiana)
Free NBA Prediction: Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat
Our prediction: Golden State Warriors to win (moneyline)
I’m backing Golden State. The Warriors will have two days of rest, they’ve made 33 threes across their last two wins, and they face a defense that ranks 24th in the league on the night Miami plays for the second time in roughly 24 hours.
The case against it is Antetokounmpo. He had 31, 18 and 10 against Indiana, and with Porzingis out and Horford coming off the bench, the Warriors don’t have a big man who can match him physically for 30-plus minutes. I’d still expect the back-to-back to catch up with Miami after halftime, when Golden State’s three-point volume, 46 attempts against the Lakers and 35 in Minneapolis, can stretch a tired defense.
No price had been posted for this game at the time of writing, since both teams still have games to play before Thursday. Check the moneyline before betting: if it comes in below 1.45, the Warriors -3.5 handicap is the alternative I’d use. Both injury reports should be checked on Thursday afternoon, with Butler and Porzingis the two names to follow on the Golden State side.
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