- 1 Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: a perfect European defence against a side with no points
- 2 Bayer Leverkusen: perfect in Europe, nine conceded in a week at home
- 3 Marseille: 18 league goals in eight games, one in three European nights
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: a perfect European defence against a side with no points
Stuttgart scored four times at the BayArena on Saturday. Demirović got two of them, Leverkusen lost 4-2, and Carles Martínez’s side have now conceded nine goals in three matches inside a single week.
Europe tells a different story. Leverkusen have played three Europa League games, won all three and kept three clean sheets: 2-0 against Celje, 4-0 at Lech Poznań and 2-0 at OFI Crete. Eight scored, none conceded, and they sit second in the 36-team table on nine points.
Marseille come to Germany with the reverse record. Beşiktaş beat them 4-1 in Istanbul on 17 September, Olympiacos won 1-0 at the Vélodrome and Sturm Graz won 1-0 in Austria on 22 October. One goal scored, six conceded, zero points, 34th place.
Kick-off at the BayArena is 20:00 UK time on Thursday 5 November. The clubs have never met in a competitive match, so the only reference points are this season’s numbers.
I don’t trust those three European clean sheets as a guide. They came against Celje, Lech and OFI. Against Bundesliga sides that attack, Leverkusen have let in three at Mainz, three at Hoffenheim and four against Stuttgart, and Marseille have scored 18 times in eight Ligue 1 games.
There’s a familiar face on the home side as well. Facundo Medina left Marseille for Leverkusen in August, signed until 2031 and scored on the opening night against Celje.
Bayer Leverkusen: perfect in Europe, nine conceded in a week at home 
Patrik Schick keeps Leverkusen scoring through the bad weeks. He became the first Leverkusen player to score on each of the opening six Bundesliga matchdays, took both penalties in the 4-0 win in Poznań and scored again against Stuttgart on Saturday.
Ibrahim Maza is the other regular source. He had two goals and two assists by late October, scored in Poland and added another against Stuttgart. Behind them, Hofmann scored twice in Crete and once more in the cup.
The league table is less kind. Leverkusen are sixth with 13 points from eight games, 18 scored and 16 conceded. They won 4-3 at Mainz and 2-1 against Freiburg, then lost 3-0 at Hoffenheim and 4-2 at home to Stuttgart, their first back-to-back league defeats since January.
The midweek cup tie showed both faces of this team. Nürnberg went 2-0 up in the DFB-Pokal before Leverkusen won 5-2, with captain Tapsoba scoring twice. They can score their way out of trouble, but they keep putting themselves in it.
The injury list is long. Moussa Diaby has a thigh problem picked up on 25 October and isn’t expected back until after the international break. Loïc Badé is a doubt after a head injury at Hoffenheim, and Terrier, Ben Seghir and Guéla Doué are also listed as absent.
I’d expect Martínez to field his strongest available side. A fourth win would put Leverkusen on 12 points with four games left, and Köln away follows on Sunday.
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Marseille: 18 league goals in eight games, one in three European nights 
Marseille’s European problem isn’t a shortage of goals in the squad. Amine Gouiri has five this season and Bruno Genesio says he’s available after being rested on Friday for personal reasons. Abdelli has three and Paixão two in recent weeks.
In Ligue 1 they’re ninth with 12 points, 18 scored and 13 conceded. They won 2-0 at Troyes, 5-2 at Angers and beat Le Havre 4-3 at the Vélodrome on 25 October. Their losses include a 2-1 home defeat to PSG on 20 September.
Europe has been grim. Abdallah scored their only goal of the campaign in Istanbul, Hezze’s header settled the Olympiacos game, and Oumar Diakité won it for Sturm Graz. That’s five straight Europa League defeats going back to last season.
Derek Cornelius is out until around January with a hip injury. Abdallah, the scorer in Istanbul, has been sent down to the reserves, while Paixão is back in training after an arm problem. Reports differ on Aguerd, Egan-Riley and Weah, so the back line is the area to check on matchday.
Genesio insists the squad is still open: “Nobody is excluded, nobody is eliminated”, he said on 30 October. The pressure on him has grown with every European defeat, and a sixth would leave Marseille needing something close to a perfect finish.
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken; Medina, Tapsoba, Quansah, M. Gutiérrez; A. García, E. Fernández; Tillman, Maza, Moreira; Schick.
Probable lineup Marseille: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille
Our prediction: Both teams to score: Yes (1.67)
Leverkusen are around 1.40 to win, which is too short to back alone. The better angle is a Marseille goal. Martínez’s side have conceded 16 times in eight league games and nine in their last three matches, and Marseille have scored at least twice in each of their last three league wins.
The European clean sheets are the obvious objection. They came against Celje, Lech Poznań and OFI Crete, and none of those sides has Gouiri’s finishing or 18 league goals behind them.
Schick has scored in every kind of game this season and Leverkusen haven’t failed to score at home in Europe this term. I’d back goals at both ends, with Leverkusen most likely to edge it.
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