- 1 Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards: 18 turnovers a game, a back-to-back and a rested Wizards team
- 2 Orlando Magic: Wagner and Bane carrying the offense, 0-2 at home
- 3 Washington Wizards: Davis at 21.8, Young at 10.4 assists and Dybantsa in the starting five
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards: 18 turnovers a game, a back-to-back and a rested Wizards team 
Orlando is turning the ball over 18.0 times per game. Through five games the Magic have scored 107.0 points a night and allowed 118.4, and they’ve lost both of their home games, 132-125 to Atlanta and 115-93 to Minnesota.
Friday brought some relief. Orlando won 121-114 in Toronto two days after losing 129-99 on the same floor, with Desmond Bane scoring 28, Franz Wagner 26 with 11 assists and Wendell Carter Jr. 20. Scottie Barnes scored a career-high 41 for the Raptors and still lost.
Washington visits the Kia Center on Monday 2 November, tip-off 7:30pm ET. The Wizards are 3-3 and held Charlotte to 79 points in a 95-79 home win on Friday, with Anthony Davis scoring 25 and taking 13 rebounds.
The schedule is lopsided. Orlando hosts Boston on Sunday afternoon, so Monday is the second night of a back-to-back. Washington has Saturday and Sunday off.
The Magic are still without Paolo Banchero (ankle), who averaged 24.5 points in his two games before the injury, and Jalen Suggs (knee). Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are also out. Washington’s list is Justin Champagnie, who had surgery on a broken right foot, Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins (knee).
We’d treat this as a near coin flip in talent terms, which is why the rest and the turnover numbers carry so much weight in the pick.
Orlando Magic: Wagner and Bane carrying the offense, 0-2 at home 
Franz Wagner leads Orlando at 19.5 points and 6.0 assists per game. Without Banchero he’s become the main ball-handler as well as the top scorer, and he had 11 assists in Toronto.
Bane’s 28 came after a slow start. He’d been shooting about a third from the field before Friday, and Orlando needs that version of him to cover for a team making 31% of its threes.
Carter has been the most efficient player on the roster. He was shooting 76% from the field coming into Friday and averages 9.0 rebounds, and Anthony Black (17 on Friday) and Jase Richardson have started alongside him in the backcourt.
The turnovers are the problem that hasn’t gone away. At 18.0 per game, Orlando commits three more turnovers a night than Washington’s 14.8, and the Wizards force 7.4 steals a night while blocking 5.6 shots.
The home record says the same. Atlanta scored 132 at the Kia Center on opening night and Minnesota won by 22 two days later. Orlando’s two wins have both come away from home, at Madison Square Garden and in Toronto.
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Washington Wizards: Davis at 21.8, Young at 10.4 assists and Dybantsa in the starting five 
Anthony Davis is averaging 21.8 points and 8.4 rebounds. His 25 and 13 against Charlotte came in a game where Washington allowed 79, and the Wizards’ 109.7 points allowed per game is the better defensive number in this game by almost nine points.
Trae Young runs the offense at 10.4 assists a night. He scored 21 with nine assists on Friday, and Washington shoots 48% from the field, ahead of Orlando’s 44%.
AJ Dybantsa has scored 19 and 17 in his first two games. The No. 1 pick made his debut in Cleveland on 28 October after missing time with a sprained ankle, went 8-of-12, and has started both games alongside Young, Kyshawn George, Davis and Alex Sarr.
The weak spots are three-point shooting and the glass. Washington makes 28% of its threes and averages 40.0 rebounds, and Cleveland outrebounded the Wizards 47-27 on Wednesday after they’d led by 10 at halftime.
Road form is mixed. Washington won 124-120 in Chicago and lost in Charlotte and Cleveland, so it’s 1-2 away from home. Two days of rest before Monday is a better setup than any of those trips had.
Probable lineup Orlando Magic: Jase Richardson, Anthony Black, Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr.
Probable lineup Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr
Free NBA Prediction: Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards
Our prediction: Washington Wizards to win
No line had been posted for Monday at the time of writing. We’d back Washington to win at any price of 1.45 or above, and we expect the Wizards to be priced as slight underdogs or close to even.
Three factors line up. Orlando is on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting Boston, it’s 0-2 at home, and it turns the ball over 18.0 times a game. Washington arrives on two days of rest with a defense allowing 109.7 points per game and a roster that blocks 5.6 shots a night.
The risk is the glass, where Carter and Wagner can punish a team averaging 40.0 rebounds. We’d still take the rested team with the better shooting and the better defense against a Magic team missing Banchero and Suggs.
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