- 1 Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks: an 0-2 home team on the second night of a back-to-back
- 2 Indiana Pacers: Siakam at 24.0, a bench that scored in Miami and 31% from three
- 3 Atlanta Hawks: 32.5 assists a game and Okongwu’s 29 against Cleveland
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks: an 0-2 home team on the second night of a back-to-back 
Indiana hosts Brooklyn on Sunday and Atlanta on Monday, which makes the Hawks game the second night of a back-to-back. The Pacers haven’t won at Gainbridge Fieldhouse yet: they lost 121-105 to Dallas and 114-109 to Philadelphia in their two home games.
The road has gone better, with wins in New Orleans and Brooklyn, but the last trip ended badly. Miami beat Indiana 145-125 on Friday in the NBA Cup opener for both teams, Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 31 points and 18 rebounds, and the Pacers dropped to 2-4 with a third straight defeat.
Atlanta comes to Indianapolis on Monday 2 November, tip-off 7:30pm ET, for the first of four meetings between the teams this season. The Hawks are 3-3 after beating Cleveland 114-111 on Thursday, a win that ended a three-game losing run.
The Hawks play in New Orleans on Saturday, so they’ll have Sunday off before the trip north. That’s one rest day for Atlanta against none for Indiana.
The injury lists widen the gap. Tyrese Haliburton missed Friday’s game with a left hamstring strain and no return date has been given, while Ivica Zubac (ankle), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy (both knee) are also out and Obi Toppin is day-to-day with a back problem. Atlanta is missing Mouhamed Gueye and Henri Veesaar.
Indiana allows 119.8 points per game. Atlanta scores 119.0 and averages 32.5 assists, and that combination is the starting point for our pick.
Indiana Pacers: Siakam at 24.0, a bench that scored in Miami and 31% from three 
Pascal Siakam leads Indiana at 24.0 points per game and shoots close to 53% from the field. He was held to 13 in Miami, where Indiana played without Haliburton and his 9.5 assists a night.
Andrew Nembhard took over the playmaking with 22 points and nine assists. Quenton Jackson scored 24 off the bench and Jarace Walker added 14, but Miami still scored 145.
Three-point shooting is a real limit for this roster. The Pacers make 31% from deep, and without Haliburton’s passing those looks get harder to create in the half court.
Zubac’s absence matters most on defense. He was averaging 9.0 rebounds, and Jay Huff has started at center in his place. Indiana averages 4.8 blocks a game but has given up 120 or more in three of six games.
The turnover numbers are reasonable at 15.4 per game. Against an Atlanta team averaging 9.2 steals, a tired Pacers team can’t afford many more than that.
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Atlanta Hawks: 32.5 assists a game and Okongwu’s 29 against Cleveland 
Onyeka Okongwu scored 29 with 12 rebounds against Cleveland, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker added 25. Andrew Wiggins came off the bench for 20, and Atlanta came back from 15 down after the first quarter to win by three.
Alexander-Walker leads the team at 20.5 points per game. Jalen Johnson runs much of the offense from the wing, with 8.5 assists and 9.3 rebounds a night, and CJ McCollum had eight assists on Thursday.
That ball movement is the Hawks’ identity. They average 32.5 assists and only 13.8 turnovers, against 29.4 and 15.4 for Indiana, and they’ve scored 114 or more in five of six games.
The defense has been less consistent. Houston beat Atlanta twice in three days, 121-114 and 120-110, and Miami scored 129 at State Farm Arena on Wednesday. The Hawks allow 114.5 points per game overall.
Road form is a point in their favor. Atlanta won 132-125 in Orlando on opening night and 128-81 in Charlotte, and it plays in New Orleans on Saturday before Monday’s game.
Probable lineup Indiana Pacers: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Kelly Oubre Jr., Pascal Siakam, Jay Huff
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu
Free NBA Prediction: Indiana Pacers vs Atlanta Hawks
Our prediction: Atlanta Hawks to win
No line was available for Monday when this was written. We’d take Atlanta to win at any price of 1.45 or above.
The rest edge, the injury list and the shooting all point the same way. Indiana is on its second night in two days, without Haliburton, Zubac or McConnell, and it makes 31% of its threes. Atlanta has a day off, averages 32.5 assists and has scored 114 or more in five of its six games.
The Pacers’ bench did score in Miami, and Siakam averages 24.0. We still expect the Hawks’ passing to find the gaps in a defense allowing 119.8 a night, and Indiana has yet to win at home.
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