- 1 San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators: no Ullmark, and the first half of an Ottawa back-to-back
- 2 San Jose Sharks: a top-10 power play and penalty kill, despite 25th in goals
- 3 Ottawa Senators: Batherson’s 10 points in five games, and a power play ranked 29th
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators: no Ullmark, and the first half of an Ottawa back-to-back 
Linus Ullmark has been listed out with a lower-body injury since 21 October, and Ottawa doesn’t expect him back before 6 November. In the nine days since, the Senators have gone 2-3-1, and the worst of those nights came against the team they face again on Saturday.
San Jose won 6-2 at Canadian Tire Centre on 22 October. Tim Stutzle put Ottawa ahead at 6:16 of the first period, Nolan Allan tied it less than five minutes later, and the Sharks then scored three times in a 4:05 stretch of the second: one on the power play, one short-handed and one at even strength.
The rematch is at SAP Center on Saturday 31 October, puck drop at 4:00pm ET. Ottawa arrives at 8-5-1 with 17 points, level with Tampa Bay and two behind Boston in the Atlantic. San Jose is 7-6-1 with 15 points, fourth in the Pacific.
Schedule matters here. The Senators lost 6-5 in overtime in Los Angeles on Thursday, and they play in Anaheim on Sunday night, so this is the first game of a back-to-back at the end of a California swing. San Jose beat Vancouver 3-2 at home on Thursday and has nothing scheduled for Sunday.
The market still makes Ottawa the favorite at 1.75 on the moneyline, with San Jose at 2.22. I think that price leans too much on the standings and not enough on how the special teams match up, which is where this game should be decided.
San Jose Sharks: a top-10 power play and penalty kill, despite 25th in goals 
San Jose’s power play converts 24.5% of its chances, 10th in the NHL, and its penalty kill sits at 83.0%, also 10th. Against an Ottawa unit at 13.6% on the power play and 76.9% short-handed, the Sharks have the better of both phases.
Five-on-five is a different picture, and the season numbers show it. The Sharks score 2.79 goals a game, 25th in the league, allow 3.29, which ranks 21st, and win 47.1% of their faceoffs, 25th. Their wins tend to come from special teams and goaltending rather than from controlling play.
Yaroslav Askarov is the reason the first meeting looked so lopsided. He made 41 saves in Ottawa while Jacob Trouba, Collin Graf and Tyler Toffoli all scored at the other end, and San Jose won comfortably despite being outshot by a wide margin.
Macklin Celebrini leads the team with 16 points, five goals and 11 assists, and he has five points in the last five games. Will Smith has six goals on 38 shots, three of them in that same five-game stretch, and Kiefer Sherwood has four assists over the run.
The injury list is long. Igor Chernyshov (upper body) isn’t due back until 13 November, Alexander Wennberg (upper body) until 8 November, and Quentin Musty and goaltender Kaiden Keyser are both out until the end of November.
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Ottawa Senators: Batherson’s 10 points in five games, and a power play ranked 29th 
Drake Batherson has 10 points over Ottawa’s last five games, four goals and six assists. That run includes the 7-4 home win over the New York Rangers on 24 October and the 5-1 win over Florida three days earlier.
The trip west has been harder. Ottawa lost 4-1 in Vegas on Tuesday, then lost 6-5 in overtime in Los Angeles on Thursday. That’s 10 goals conceded in two road games, and 16 in the three defeats since Ullmark went on the injury list.
Samuel Ersson took the loss in the first meeting, finishing with 22 saves, and Ottawa hasn’t confirmed who starts on Saturday. With Anaheim the following night, there’s a fair chance the two games are split between the available goalies.
The team numbers are middle of the pack: 3.00 goals per game for, 18th, and 3.14 against, 15th. Ottawa does win 52.1% of its faceoffs, eighth in the league, which should give it more of the puck than San Jose at even strength.
Warren Foegele (knee) is out until around 6 November, and Andre Burakovsky and Thomas Chabot have both been listed day-to-day. Ottawa is also 5-9 on the puck line this season, which fits a team that wins plenty of games but rarely pulls away.
Probable lineup San Jose Sharks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Ottawa Senators: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: San Jose Sharks vs Ottawa Senators
Our prediction: San Jose Sharks to win (moneyline, 2.22)
San Jose ranks 10th on both the power play and the penalty kill, and Ottawa ranks 29th and 19th in the same two categories. In a game between two teams separated by two points in the standings, that’s the clearest edge either side has.
Ottawa will have more of the puck at five-on-five, thanks to its faceoff numbers, and Batherson is in form. Against that, the Senators are on the first night of a back-to-back, have allowed 10 goals in their last two games, and are still waiting on Ullmark.
At 2.22, the home team doesn’t need to be the better side over 60 minutes, only the better one on special teams and in net, and it was both in Ottawa nine days ago. San Jose on the moneyline is the pick.
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