- 1 Lecce vs Genoa: six meetings since 2023, and none of them with more than three goals
- 2 Lecce: one home win from four, and a defender suspended
- 3 Genoa: three wins in four, but no away points and one away goal
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Lecce vs Genoa
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lecce vs Genoa: six meetings since 2023, and none of them with more than three goals 
Lecce and Genoa have met six times in Serie A since September 2023, and the highest-scoring of those games finished 2-1. Two ended 0-0, two finished 1-0, and the record between them is level: two wins each and two draws.
The most recent was a 1-0 Lecce win at the Via del Mare on 24 May. They meet there again on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 17:00 UK time.
Genoa arrive in better spirits than their hosts. Daniele De Rossi’s side beat Juventus 2-0 at home on Wednesday, with goals from Ehizibue on 12 minutes and Baldanzi on 28, and that made it three wins from their last four league games, taking them to 10 points from nine matches. The bookmakers have them as slight favourites, at 2.50 against 2.90 for a Lecce win and 3.10 for the draw.
Lecce lost 2-0 at home to Juventus last Sunday and had nine points from eight games before Thursday’s trip to Frosinone, whose result wasn’t known when this preview was written. Eusebio Di Francesco’s team have scored nine league goals and conceded 14 in those eight matches.
So the form points towards Genoa, but the context of this fixture points towards something tighter. Neither team scores much, Genoa haven’t scored more than once in any away game this season, and Lecce have scored once in their last two home matches. That’s why I’m looking at the goals line here rather than the result.
Lecce: one home win from four, and a defender suspended 
Lecce’s home record is the weaker half of their season. They beat Monza 3-2 in September, but they’ve lost their other three games at the Via del Mare, 4-0 to Roma, 2-1 to Bologna on 11 October and 2-0 to Juventus on 25 October.
That’s four goals scored and ten conceded at home, and no clean sheet. Away from Lecce they’ve done better, winning 2-0 at Venezia and 3-0 at Udinese on 18 October.
Di Francesco has to work around a long absence list. Ilic, Berisha, Coulibaly and Pierotti are all injured, and Gaspar was sent off against Juventus and banned for two matches, so he misses both the Frosinone game and this one.
Three more players came out of the Juventus game with knocks: Tiago Gabriel, Fatah and N’Dri. Fatah and N’Dri are two of the three forwards in Di Francesco’s 4-3-3, with Geubbels in the middle, so any absences there would leave Lecce even shorter of goals.
The bigger issue is the volume of chances Lecce have produced. Their nine league goals have come almost entirely in their three wins, and in their defeats they’ve rarely scored at all. Coulibaly, one of their scorers this season, is among the injured.
The goalkeeper Falcone is one of the few constants. He’s expected to start, behind a back four that has had to change because of Gaspar’s ban.
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Genoa: three wins in four, but no away points and one away goal 
Genoa’s recent run looks good on the table. They beat Fiorentina 2-1 on 10 October, Venezia 1-0 on 25 October and Juventus 2-0 on Wednesday, with only a 2-0 defeat at Roma breaking the sequence.
All three of those wins came in Genoa, though. Away from home De Rossi’s side have played three league games and lost all three: 2-1 at Parma in September, 1-0 at Lazio and 2-0 at Roma on 17 October.
That’s one goal scored and five conceded on the road. Before this recent run, the early weeks were hard too, with a 4-1 defeat to Como, a 2-0 loss to Napoli and a 1-1 draw with Frosinone. Genoa’s total of eight league goals in nine games is low as well, and they haven’t scored more than twice in any of those nine.
De Rossi’s shape helps explain why Genoa’s games stay low on goals. He used a 3-5-2 against Juventus, with Bijlow in goal, Marcandalli, Østigård and Vásquez at the back, and Vitinha and Osmajić up front. Osmajić is the club’s top scorer with three league goals.
Most of Genoa’s attacking threat comes from the wing-backs rather than the strikers. Ehizibue scored the opener against Juventus from wing-back, Ellertsson played on the other flank, while Frendrup, Amorim and Baldanzi formed the midfield three.
Genoa had injury concerns over Venturino, Havel and Sow before the Juventus game, while Wiafe and Colombo, who had been listed among the injured, both came on in the 82nd minute. Genoa picked up no red cards against Juventus, and no suspensions have been reported.
Probable lineup Lecce: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Ehizibue, Frendrup, Amorim, Baldanzi, Ellertsson; Vitinha, Osmajić
Free Serie A Prediction: Lecce vs Genoa
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.57
None of the last six meetings between these clubs produced more than three goals, and four of them produced one or none. Genoa have scored once in three league away games, and Lecce have scored once in their last two at home.
The argument against is Lecce’s defence at the Via del Mare, which has let in ten goals in four games, and Genoa’s form after beating Juventus. But Genoa’s away games have averaged two goals in total, and Lecce will be without Gaspar and four injured players.
Lecce also played at Frosinone three days before this one. I’d take under 2.5 goals at 1.57.
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