- 1 Como vs Venezia: fourth against bottom, three days before Lens
- 2 Como: 17 league goals in nine games and a squad stretched by Europe
- 3 Venezia: one win in six, and that one came against Napoli
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Como vs Venezia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Como vs Venezia: fourth against bottom, three days before Lens 
Anastasios Douvikas scored both goals in Como’s 2-0 win over Sassuolo on 24 October, in the 49th and 60th minutes, and had scored in four straight matches by the end of that afternoon. He’s Como’s top scorer, and he’s expected to lead the line against the bottom side in Serie A on Sunday 1 November, kick-off 11:30 UK time at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Cesc Fabregas’s side are fourth. They’ve won six and lost one of their nine league games, scoring 17 and conceding eight, and their latest outing was a 3-1 win at Torino on Tuesday. The game is the first of the Sunday Serie A programme, with a 12:30 local kick-off.
Venezia are 20th. Their only league win in their last six came against Napoli, 1-0 at home, and on Wednesday they lost 2-0 at home to Inter. In that six-game run they’ve also lost to Fiorentina, Lazio, Atalanta and Genoa, and Napoli are the only opponent to drop points against them.
The calendar is what complicates things for Como. They face Lens in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, three days after this game, and Fabregas has rotated heavily in recent weeks, keeping only a little over half of his starting XI from one match to the next across the last six.
Recent meetings have been closer than the table would suggest. The two Serie A games in 2024-25 finished 2-2 in Venice and 1-1 at Como, and the six meetings on record are split two wins each with two draws, with Venezia’s 3-0 home win in Serie B in August 2023 the widest margin, although I’d put very little weight on games played under different coaches and in some cases in Serie B.
Como: 17 league goals in nine games and a squad stretched by Europe 
Como’s last six matches across all competitions show how much this side has grown. They’ve beaten Torino 3-1, Sassuolo 2-0, Manchester United 4-1 and Fiorentina 3-1, drawn 0-0 with Roma and lost 3-2 at Feyenoord. They’ve won all four games since that night in Rotterdam, scoring 12 goals, and the Sassuolo win moved them into the top four ahead of AC Milan.
The 4-1 win over Manchester United came three days before the Sassuolo game, so Fabregas has already handled a European night followed by a league match. This time the order is reversed, with the league game first and Lens to come.
Injuries limit how far he can rotate. Kean, Chalobah, Liberali, Diao and Rodríguez are all listed as out, and Papaccioli is doubtful.
The probable XI still has the spine of the side: Butez in goal, Couto, Kempf, Naveros and Valle in defence, and da Cunha and Perrone in midfield. Baturina, Paz and Milla are expected behind Douvikas, and Maxence Caqueret, who set up the opener against Sassuolo, is an option from the bench.
The away results add to the case. Como won 3-1 at Fiorentina and 3-1 at Torino, and they’ve conceded eight goals in nine league games overall. Two of their last six matches, against Roma and Sassuolo, ended with clean sheets.
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Venezia: one win in six, and that one came against Napoli 
Venezia have scored six league goals this season, and Antoine Hainaut is their top scorer. They’ve scored more than once in only one of their last six league games, the 4-2 defeat to Fiorentina.
Their recent run, in order, reads 2-4 at home to Fiorentina, 0-2 at home to Lazio, 1-3 at Atalanta, the 1-0 win over Napoli, 0-1 at Genoa and 0-2 at home to Inter.
Four of those five defeats were by two goals or more. Away from Venice they’ve scored one goal in their last two league trips, at Atalanta. Since the win over Napoli they’ve lost to Genoa and Inter without scoring, so they arrive on two straight blanks.
With Adorante out because of a hernia, more of the scoring burden falls on Hainaut. The injury list is long. Sverko (hip), Adorante (hernia), Franjic (shoulder) and Correia (thigh) are out, and Busio and Bella-Kotchap are doubts with thigh problems.
Venezia’s coaching staff have named the same starting XI in each of their last two matches, and the side has stayed largely unchanged over the last six games, with around 84 per cent of the line-up kept from one match to the next.
Probable lineup Como: Butez; Couto, Kempf, Naveros, Valle; da Cunha, Perrone; Baturina, Paz, Milla; Douvikas
Probable lineup Venezia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Como vs Venezia
Our prediction: Como -1 (Asian handicap)
Como at 1.38 is too short to back on its own, so I’m taking them on the -1 handicap, which needs a win by two goals or more. Venezia have lost five of their last six league games, and four of those defeats came by at least two goals.
Como’s recent wins fit the pattern: 3-1, 2-0, 4-1 and 3-1, all four of them by at least two goals. Douvikas is scoring regularly, and even a rotated attack still has Paz and Baturina behind him, while Venezia are without Adorante and possibly Busio.
The risk is heavy rotation before Lens and a repeat of the two draws between these sides in 2024-25. Venezia’s attack has scored once in two away games, though, and I’d expect Como to have this settled before Fabregas turns his attention to Wednesday.
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