- 1 Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles: no Hurts, no McLaurin, and two defenses giving up 25-plus
- 2 Washington Commanders: Daniels sharp, but a defense ranked 31st in points allowed
- 3 Philadelphia Eagles: five straight losses, McKee in charge, and 204 rushing yards allowed to Dallas
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
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Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles: no Hurts, no McLaurin, and two defenses giving up 25-plus 
Jalen Hurts is presumed out for the season while he’s treated for blood clots that reached both lungs. Tanner McKee is now Philadelphia’s starter, and the Eagles have lost five straight to fall to 2-5.
The latest was a 38-21 home defeat to Dallas on Monday night. For a while it looked like McKee had found something. The Eagles scored touchdowns on their first two possessions and on the opening drive of the third quarter, all firsts this season, and led 21-20 after a drive that took 9 minutes and 16 seconds. Then McKee threw an interception, took several sacks, and the holding flags came back.
Washington haven’t been much better: the Commanders are 1-4-1, coming off a bye, and their last game was a 23-17 loss in San Francisco. Terry McLaurin is out for the rest of the season.
The two teams meet on Sunday Night Football, 8:20pm ET on Sunday 1 November at Northwest Stadium, on NBC. Philadelphia won the Week 1 meeting 24-22 on 13 September.
Washington opened as 3.5-point favorites and have moved to -5.5, with the total at 40.5. Washington are 3-2 against the spread in the last five meetings, and Philadelphia are 1-6 against the spread this season.
The total is where I’m looking, because these two defenses allow 28.7 and 25.0 points per game, and the over has landed in eight of the last ten meetings between these teams.
Washington Commanders: Daniels sharp, but a defense ranked 31st in points allowed 
Jayden Daniels went 29 of 40 for 300 yards and two touchdowns without an interception in San Francisco. Across four games this season he’s completing 64.7% of his passes for 759 yards and five touchdowns.
The win column hasn’t followed: Daniels hasn’t won a start since 5 October last season against the Chargers, so Washington’s one win this season came in a game he didn’t start. Losing McLaurin and Jaylin Lane to injured reserve leaves Chig Okonkwo, who caught seven passes for 69 yards against the 49ers, as one of the main targets.
The bigger worry is defensive: Washington allow 28.7 points per game, 31st in the league, and 254.0 passing yards per game, 28th. Opponents have 15 touchdown passes against them, and against the run they rank 31st in opponent rush success rate.
The offense itself is middle of the pack: 22.0 points per game (21st) and 325.2 yards per game (19th). Washington take care of the ball, with one interception and one lost fumble all season, and they’ve forced eight takeaways.
There are injury questions on the defensive line, where Charles Omenihu and Javon Kinlaw are both questionable. Backup quarterback Marcus Mariota is also listed questionable.
The over is 4-2 in Washington’s games this season. With this defense and a home crowd behind Daniels, the Commanders should get into the twenties.
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Philadelphia Eagles: five straight losses, McKee in charge, and 204 rushing yards allowed to Dallas 
Dallas ran 38 times for 204 yards against Philadelphia on Monday, 5.4 yards a carry. Dak Prescott added 212 passing yards and three touchdowns.
Over the season, Philadelphia allow 25.0 points per game (21st) and 371.3 total yards per game (27th). They’ve given up 11 passing touchdowns and nine rushing touchdowns in seven games.
McKee went 23 of 35 for 211 yards, one touchdown and one interception against Dallas. Makai Lemon had career highs with seven catches for 67 yards. In his first year as offensive coordinator, Sean Mannion now has to build around a backup quarterback.
The ground game has been poor: 87.7 rushing yards per game, 27th in the league. Saquon Barkley ran seven times for 62 yards and scored against Dallas, but he’s listed questionable along with Dameon Pierce. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are questionable too, and either could return.
Scoring has been the issue all year, with the Eagles averaging 18.1 points per game and turning the ball over six times, five of them interceptions.
Washington’s run defense gives them a chance to keep the chains moving. If Barkley plays, he gets a matchup against a unit ranked 31st in rush success rate allowed.
Probable lineup Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels, RB Rachaad White, TE Chig Okonkwo. WR Terry McLaurin and WR Jaylin Lane on IR. DE Charles Omenihu and DT Javon Kinlaw questionable. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Philadelphia Eagles: QB Tanner McKee, RB Saquon Barkley (questionable), WR Makai Lemon, WR DeVonta Smith (questionable), WR Dontayvion Wicks (questionable). QB Jalen Hurts on IR. Full depth chart not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
Our prediction: Over 40.5 points at 1.91
Washington allow 28.7 points per game and Philadelphia allow 25.0. Dallas scored 38 on the Eagles last week, and the Commanders have given up 15 touchdown passes in six games. The over has hit in eight of the last ten meetings, and the Week 1 game finished 24-22, 46 points.
The argument against is the Philadelphia offense: 18.1 points per game and a backup quarterback who fell apart after halftime on Monday. A 20-13 Washington win would sink this ticket.
That outcome needs both offenses to stall for four quarters, and the evidence points the other way. Daniels just threw for 300 yards without an interception, he faces a defense that allowed 5.4 yards per carry to Dallas, and Philadelphia showed on Monday they can still move the ball early. 40.5 is a low number for two defenses this porous.
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