- 1 Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens: two goalies under 1.60, and a Stars team that never goes over
- 2 Dallas Stars: the NHL’s best defense, and an offense ranked 25th
- 3 Montreal Canadiens: no Suzuki, no power play, and a goalie stopping everything
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens: two goalies under 1.60, and a Stars team that never goes over 
Jacob Fowler stopped all 46 shots St. Louis threw at him on Tuesday night. Montreal managed 20 at the other end, won 2-0, and left St. Louis with a third straight win and a goalie whose numbers now read 6-1-0, a .942 save percentage and a 1.54 goals-against average.
Thursday’s opponent is the one team in the league that might be harder to score on than Fowler. The Dallas Stars allow 2.00 goals per game, the best mark in the NHL, and 22.2 shots per game, the second fewest. Puck drop at American Airlines Center is 8pm ET on Thursday 29 October.
It’s the first of two meetings between these teams this season. Montreal arrive at 7-3-2, second in the Atlantic behind Boston, with points in five straight games (4-0-1). Dallas sit third in the Central at 7-4-1.
The Stars also arrive with a sour taste. Their five-game winning streak ended on Tuesday with a 5-1 home loss to New Jersey, on the night Connor Hellebuyck made his debut for the Devils.
One bad night shouldn’t outweigh a month: over their last ten games the Stars are 7-2-1 and have allowed 1.8 goals per game.
Dallas are also 2-10 to the over this season. Twelve games, ten unders. Montreal’s last three games have also gone under. Put that next to two goalies playing as well as anyone in the league and a total set at 6, and the path is fairly clear.
Dallas Stars: the NHL’s best defense, and an offense ranked 25th 
Jake Oettinger has been the reason Dallas rarely give anything away. He’s 6-2-1 in nine starts with a .929 save percentage, a 1.43 goals-against average and three shutouts. All three of the team’s shutouts this season belong to him.
The penalty kill, at 92.9%, ranks second in the league. Montreal’s power play, at 11.4%, ranks 29th, so the Canadiens shouldn’t expect many cheap goals with the man advantage.
The problem for Dallas is at the other end. They score 2.67 goals per game, 25th in the NHL, and their power play converts at 18.5%, 20th. Mikko Rantanen has six goals and 14 points. Jason Robertson has five goals and 13 points, and Roope Hintz has five goals.
Beyond that top group, the forward depth is thin. Matt Duchene is on injured reserve with an abdominal injury, and Radek Faksa, Oskar Back and Cameron Hughes are all listed out. Sam Steel is day-to-day. On defense, Esa Lindell is on injured reserve, which puts more on Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley.
The home record is good without being dominant: 4-3-0 at American Airlines Center. Opponents have scored two or more goals in six of the Stars’ seven home games, and that’s the one figure that cuts against an under. The 5-1 loss to New Jersey also came at home.
Even so, the season-long pattern carries more weight than Tuesday. Dallas build games around Oettinger and a low shot count, and they’ve stayed under the total ten times in twelve.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Montreal Canadiens: no Suzuki, no power play, and a goalie stopping everything 
Nick Suzuki has been out since 22 October with an upper-body injury, and the timeline is two to four weeks. He had a team-high 12 points when he went down. Ivan Demidov is on injured reserve with a lower-body injury, and Samuel Montembeault is also out.
Montreal have won three straight without their captain anyway. Tuesday’s 2-0 win in St. Louis showed how: Zachary Bolduc scored in the second period, Florian Xhekaj added his first NHL goal, Mike Matheson had both assists and Fowler handled the rest.
Montreal’s goals are spread around: Cole Caufield has six on 39 shots. Bolduc has five on 20 shots, two of them on the power play. Josh Anderson has four, and Lane Hutson has ten points from the blue line. Eight Montreal skaters have at least two goals.
Discipline is the concern: Montreal have taken 62 penalties, second most in the league at 5.2 per game. Against most teams that would invite goals against. Against a Dallas power play ranked 20th, it’s less of a threat, and Montreal’s penalty kill sits 10th at 83.7%.
Fowler hasn’t been officially confirmed as Thursday’s starter. The alternative is Jakub Dobes, who is 1-2-2 with an .847 save percentage, and that would change the picture. Fowler has allowed one goal or fewer in each of his last three starts, and the coaching staff has little reason to change.
On the road, Montreal are 4-1-1. They’ve trailed first in six games this season and won four of them, so they don’t fold when a game goes against them early.
Probable lineup Dallas Stars: Jake Oettinger (G); Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson; Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley. Matt Duchene, Esa Lindell, Radek Faksa, Oskar Back and Cameron Hughes out. Full lines not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Montreal Canadiens: Jacob Fowler (G, not confirmed); Cole Caufield, Zachary Bolduc, Josh Anderson; Lane Hutson, Mike Matheson. Nick Suzuki, Ivan Demidov and Samuel Montembeault out. Full lines not announced at time of publication.
Free NHL Prediction: Dallas Stars vs Montreal Canadiens
Our prediction: Under 6 goals at 1.87
Dallas have gone under in ten of twelve games, they allow 2.00 goals per game and 22.2 shots per game, and Oettinger has three shutouts already. Montreal’s last three games have gone under, and Fowler has a .942 save percentage across seven starts.
Special teams point the same way: Montreal’s power play ranks 29th, Dallas’s penalty kill ranks second, and the Stars’ own power play sits 20th. Neither team has a reliable way to manufacture goals with the man advantage, and Montreal are without Suzuki, their leading scorer.
The risk is Tuesday’s 5-1 home loss and the fact that Dallas have allowed two or more at home in six of seven games. A 4-3 finish would beat this ticket, and exactly 6 would be a push. I still think 5 goals or fewer is the likeliest outcome between the league’s best defense and a goalie on a 46-save shutout, and I’d take the under at 1.87.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Dallas Stars and Montreal Canadiens on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply