- 1 Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers: Giannis averaging 28.5 for an 0-4 team, against an Indiana frontcourt without Zubac
- 2 Miami Heat: 121.8 points allowed, and a 14-of-25 night at the line
- 3 Indiana Pacers: no Zubac, and 49 rebounds a game allowed
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers: Giannis averaging 28.5 for an 0-4 team, against an Indiana frontcourt without Zubac 
Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 35, 36, 14 and 29 points in his first four games for Miami. The Heat have lost all four, their first 0-4 start since 2008-09.
Friday’s game against the Indiana Pacers tips off at 8:00pm ET at Kaseya Center, October 30. Miami plays in Atlanta on Wednesday and Indiana hosts Philadelphia the same night, so neither team is on a back-to-back.
The Heat’s latest loss was their closest. Dallas won 113-109 in Miami on Monday, Antetokounmpo had 29 points, 11 assists and 14 rebounds, and the Heat went 14-of-25 from the free-throw line. Cooper Flagg blocked a late Andrew Wiggins three to close it out.
Indiana is 2-2, and its injury report explains why this line isn’t tighter. Ivica Zubac (ankle), T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Ben Sheppard (meniscus) are out, Johnny Furphy is done for the season with a torn ACL, and Tyrese Haliburton is questionable with a hamstring problem. Andrew Nembhard, who missed Monday’s game, is also questionable.
The books have Miami at -3.5 with a total of 241.5, and the Heat’s moneyline at 1.72. We expect Miami’s first win of the season, and we expect it to come on the boards.
Miami Heat: 121.8 points allowed, and a 14-of-25 night at the line 
Miami’s defense is allowing 121.8 points per game, 24th in the league. Minnesota scored 131 in the opener, and Detroit made 47.4% of its threes in a 128-111 win three days later.
The offense ranks 28th at 109.0 points per game, and the shooting is the main reason. The Heat have made 49 of 160 threes, 30.6%, which leaves little room around Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo near the basket.
Davion Mitchell has been the most productive guard, with 22 points and 10 assists in Charlotte and 21 against Dallas. Adebayo had 20 points and eight rebounds in Charlotte, a game Miami lost 115-110 after trailing by 23.
Foul trouble decided that one. Antetokounmpo played 25 minutes before fouling out with under two minutes left, finishing with 14 points, and Erik Spoelstra spent part of his postgame press conference on the officiating.
Simone Fontecchio (illness) and Pelle Larsson (ankle) were game-time decisions for Wednesday’s trip to Atlanta. Vladislav Goldin was inactive for the first two games of the season.
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Indiana Pacers: no Zubac, and 49 rebounds a game allowed 
Indiana allows 49.0 rebounds per game, against a league average of 44.9. Milwaukee out-rebounded the Pacers 45-34 on Monday, and Indiana turned an 11-point halftime lead into a 110-102 loss.
The second half in Milwaukee was a shooting collapse as well, with Indiana going 3-of-22 from three after the break. Tyler Herro finished with 23 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists for the Bucks.
Haliburton and Pascal Siakam have carried Rick Carlisle’s team. Haliburton had 22 points, nine assists and six rebounds in Milwaukee and 24 points with 10 assists in a 136-109 win in Brooklyn. Siakam added 20 points, 13 rebounds and six assists on Monday, after scoring 53 across the first two games.
Zubac sprained his ankle in Brooklyn, and without him Indiana has few bodies to put against Antetokounmpo and Adebayo. Obi Toppin (hand) and Aaron Nesmith (hamstring) are listed as probable.
The Pacers did win last season’s series 2-1, 123-99 and 135-118 at home, but they lost 142-116 in Miami in December. Indiana finished that season 19-63.
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Indiana Pacers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers
Our prediction: Miami Heat to win (1.72)
We’re backing Miami on the moneyline. Antetokounmpo had 14 rebounds against Dallas and 12 against Detroit, Adebayo is alongside him, and Indiana has been giving up 49 boards a game even before losing Zubac to the ankle sprain.
The case against is clear enough: Miami’s defense has conceded 121.8 a game, Indiana scored 136 in Brooklyn, and a fully fit Haliburton would make this a much closer call. His hamstring and Nembhard’s neck both need watching before tip-off.
The Heat’s last two losses came by five and four points. Rested, at home and facing a short frontcourt, we’d take Miami to get off the mark at 1.72.
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