- 1 Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: two defenses that have allowed 122 or more in five of six games
- 2 Phoenix Suns: Booker’s 43 against Golden State, and a frontcourt down to Maluach
- 3 Denver Nuggets: Jokic’s 35-15-10 triple-double, and 134 points allowed to a winless team
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets: two defenses that have allowed 122 or more in five of six games 
Golden State arrived at Ball Arena on Monday without a win and left with a 134-114 victory. Rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, in his fourth NBA game, scored 31 points with 12 rebounds, and Denver trailed 100-84 going into the fourth quarter of its own building.
That’s the Nuggets team Phoenix hosts on Friday 30 October at Mortgage Matchup Center, tip-off at 10:00pm ET. It’s an NBA Cup group-play game as well as a regular-season one, and it’s the first of four meetings between these teams this season.
The defensive numbers on both sides are the story. Denver gave up 135 points to New Orleans on 24 October, albeit in an overtime win, and then 134 to the Warriors two nights later. Phoenix allowed 124 in Portland on opening night, 122 to Golden State and 125 in Oklahoma City on Monday.
The only exception across the six games these teams have played is Denver’s 96-84 loss in Oklahoma City on 22 October. In every other game, one of these defenses let in at least 122 points.
The schedule tilts toward Phoenix. The Suns last played on Monday and get three full days before this game. Denver plays in New Orleans on Wednesday, then travels to Arizona with one day in between.
Neither team has a game the following night. Phoenix’s next stop is Golden State on 2 November, and Denver hosts Portland the same evening, so there’s no reason for either coach to hold minutes back on Friday.
Phoenix Suns: Booker’s 43 against Golden State, and a frontcourt down to Maluach 
Devin Booker scored 43 points on 17-of-25 shooting in the 131-122 win over Golden State on 24 October, the only game Phoenix has won so far. He had a team-high 23 in the opener, a 124-83 loss in Portland that set the tone for a 1-2 start.
Monday’s 125-114 loss in Oklahoma City came against a Thunder team now 4-0, with Ajay Mitchell scoring 30 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 26. Phoenix went into that game as a 9.5-point underdog and lost by 11.
The frontcourt is thin. Mark Williams is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury, and Oso Ighodaro has been dealing with an oblique problem that made him doubtful for the Thunder game. That leaves Khaman Maluach as the main option at center against Nikola Jokic.
Jalen Green has a clean bill of health this season after scoring 10 in the Portland loss. Miles Bridges, acquired from Charlotte in the summer, gives Phoenix another scorer on the wing, and Luke Kennard was cleared after a knee concern. The Suns also used the 30th pick in June on Koa Peat, though the rotation still runs through the veterans.
Phoenix’s offense has swung from 83 points in Portland to 131 against Golden State. At home, rested and with Booker playing at his current level, we expect it to land much closer to the top of that range against Denver’s current defense.
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Denver Nuggets: Jokic’s 35-15-10 triple-double, and 134 points allowed to a winless team 
Jokic had 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists in 44 minutes against New Orleans on 24 October, his first triple-double of the season, as Denver beat the Pelicans 141-135 in overtime. After that game he told fans who had booed the team that they weren’t welcome anymore.
Two nights later the defense fell apart again. The Warriors went on a 20-9 run to open the third quarter and led by as many as 21. Stephen Curry scored 24 without missing a shot from the field or the line, and Georges Niang and Al Horford combined for four threes off the bench.
Aaron Gordon was ejected in the fourth quarter of that loss after an argument, a sour end to a quiet night. Denver has now lost two of its first three games.
The injury list hasn’t helped. Cam Johnson (ankle) and Alpha Diallo (wrist) were both doubtful going into the Warriors game, Spencer Jones has been nursing a hamstring injury, and Julian Strawther (knee) isn’t expected back before late November.
DeMar DeRozan had 19 points through three quarters against Golden State, and Jamal Murray is still in the backcourt. The offense can score with anyone: 141 against New Orleans proved that. Keeping the other team under 120 is the part Denver hasn’t managed in two of its last three games.
Probable lineup Phoenix Suns: Not announced at time of publication (Williams out, Ighodaro doubtful)
Probable lineup Denver Nuggets: Not announced at time of publication (Strawther out; Johnson and Diallo day-to-day)
Free NBA Prediction: Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets
Our prediction: Over the total points line
We’re backing the over. Both defenses have allowed at least 122 points in five of their combined six games, and Denver has conceded 134 and 135 in its last two. The total for this game hadn’t been posted at the time of writing, and we’d only play the over at 1.45 or longer and on a line in the 220s.
The matchup in the paint pushes the same way. Phoenix will likely have Maluach as its main center against Jokic, who had a 35-point triple-double last weekend, and Booker scored 43 on Saturday against the same Warriors team that then put 134 on Denver.
The risk is the opener: Phoenix scored only 83 in Portland, and a cold night from Booker could sink the over. With three days of rest at home for the Suns and a Nuggets team on short rest with defensive problems they haven’t fixed, we’re comfortable taking the points.
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