Pittsburgh Penguins vs Utah Mammoth – Free NHL Prediction

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Utah Mammoth: the rematch of a nine-goal game, with Utah’s power play at 38.1%

Erik Karlsson scored 71 seconds into the first meeting between these teams on 19 October. Utah then scored five of the next six goals, led 5-2 early in the third period and had to hang on for a 5-4 win after Egor Chinakhov and Declan Carlile pulled Pittsburgh back within one with 5:05 left.

The rematch is in Pittsburgh on Thursday 29 October, puck drop at 7:00pm ET at PPG Paints Arena. Utah arrives at 8-4-0 and leads the season series 1-0. Pittsburgh sits at 5-6-1 but comes in on a two-game winning streak, its first sign of life after a long slide.

That slide was real. The Penguins won their first two games, then went 1-6-1 over their next eight and allowed at least five goals in four straight losses. They’re 3-6-1 across their last ten, against a Utah team that’s 6-4-0 over the same stretch.

The game in Salt Lake City also cost Pittsburgh a forward it can’t easily replace. Bryan Rust picked up two assists that night, left at 14:59 of the second period with a lower-body injury and is out for six weeks before he’s even re-evaluated. Ben Kindel went on injured reserve at the same time after losing consciousness on the team flight home.

Both teams give up goals. Utah allows 3.33 per game, 22nd in the league, and Pittsburgh allows 3.25, 19th. Put those numbers next to the special teams figures below and we think this game points one way, whichever team ends up winning it.

Pittsburgh Penguins: Karlsson and Malkin carrying a lineup without Rust and Kindel

Rust had 5 points (3 goals, 2 assists) in 7 games before the injury, and that was after missing the first three games of the season with an upper-body problem. He’s a two-time Stanley Cup winner with 507 career points, and his absence changes the top six.

Coach Dan Muse reshuffled after Salt Lake City. Tommy Novak moved to left wing on the first line, Hendrix Lapierre stepped into the second line and Blake Lizotte took over at third-line center in place of Kindel. Rutger McGroarty and defenseman Chase Pietila were called up from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton to fill the gaps.

Karlsson has been the engine through it. He has 5 points in the last five games, 4 of them assists, and his deflected power-play goal opened the scoring in Utah. Evgeni Malkin has 3 goals over the same five games, the most on the team in that span.

Pittsburgh’s penalty kill is the part of the team that works. It’s running at 83.9%, eighth in the league, and it’s the main reason we don’t expect Utah to have things all its own way on the man advantage. The power play is at 20.6%, 17th, and it scored twice in the first meeting.

The weak spot is the faceoff circle. The Penguins win 45.6% of draws, 29th in the NHL, and they score 3.25 goals per game, 12th. Arturs Silovs made 24 saves in the loss on 19 October and gave up five goals on 29 shots.

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Utah Mammoth: fifth in scoring, first on the power play, 29th on the penalty kill

Utah scores 3.83 goals per game, fifth in the NHL. Its power play converts at 38.1%, the best rate in the league, and it scored once with the man advantage in the first meeting through Nick Schmaltz, who made it 5-2 at 1:36 of the third.

The other side of the special teams ledger is ugly. Utah kills only 66.7% of penalties, 29th in the league, and Pittsburgh scored two power-play goals against it on 19 October. A team that concedes on one penalty in three can’t protect a lead the way a top-ten side would.

Clayton Keller leads the recent scoring with 6 points and 3 goals in the last five games. He tied the first meeting at 6:00 of the opening period, his third goal in three games at the time. Mikhail Sergachev has 4 assists over the same stretch from the blue line.

The Mammoth also dominate the dot, winning 54.1% of faceoffs, fourth in the league. That gives them more possession at five-on-five, but it hasn’t stopped them conceding 3.33 goals a game. Sebastian Cossa faced only 19 shots in Salt Lake City and let in four.

Utah plays at home against Minnesota on Tuesday before travelling east, so it gets one full day off before Thursday. The 5-4 overtime win over Tampa Bay on 24 October was another game where Utah and its opponent both reached four goals.

Probable lineup Pittsburgh Penguins: Not announced at time of publication (Rust and Kindel on injured reserve; Novak, Lapierre and Lizotte moved up after the 19 October game)
Probable lineup Utah Mammoth: Not announced at time of publication

Free NHL Prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Utah Mammoth

Our prediction: Over 6.5 goals

We’re not picking a winner here. We’re backing the total, because both teams concede more than three goals a game and the special teams matchup favors scoring in both directions. Utah’s 38.1% power play is the best in the league and its 66.7% penalty kill is fourth-worst. Odds for this game hadn’t been posted at the time of writing, and we’d only take the over at 1.45 or longer.

The first meeting finished 5-4 and had three power-play goals. Pittsburgh has since lost Rust, but the Penguins allowed five or more in four straight losses earlier this month, and nothing about their faceoff numbers suggests they’ll keep the puck away from Keller and Schmaltz for long.

The risk is Pittsburgh’s penalty kill, eighth in the league at 83.9%, slowing the game down and keeping Utah’s power play quiet. If that happens, this could land on six. We still think two defenses ranked 19th and 22nd, in a game where the last meeting reached nine, get us to seven.

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