- 1 Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers: a Flyers team scoring 1.85 a game, on the second night of a back-to-back
- 2 Washington Capitals: Strome and Tuch carrying the offense, Thompson out
- 3 Philadelphia Flyers: Michkov has eight of the goals, and the rest have dried up
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers: a Flyers team scoring 1.85 a game, on the second night of a back-to-back 
Philadelphia is scoring 1.85 goals per game this season and taking 22.7 shots to get there. Those numbers belong to a team that’s 3-7-3, and they explain more of that record than the goaltending does.
The Flyers play Columbus at home on Tuesday night and then travel to Capital One Arena for a 7:30pm ET start on Wednesday 28 October. That’s a back-to-back against a Washington team that will have been off since Saturday.
The Capitals are 6-4-0 and have won three of their last four. Their latest was a 4-3 overtime win over Buffalo after trailing 2-0 inside the first 11 minutes, with Alex Tuch scoring twice against his former team, including the winner in overtime.
Spencer Carbery wasn’t celebrating the defending, though. The Washington coach said his team was bad defensively and that fixing it was on him, and Buffalo scored three times on 21 shots.
Washington opened the season with a 5-3 win over Pittsburgh in what was billed as Alex Ovechkin’s final home opener, and it has stayed above .500 since, even after conceding five to the Kings and three to Buffalo in the space of five days.
Washington leaks chances, but Philadelphia doesn’t create many, and it will be playing its second game in two nights. I’d lean on that mismatch more than on anything the Capitals’ defense has shown so far.
Washington Capitals: Strome and Tuch carrying the offense, Thompson out 
Dylan Strome had two power-play goals and an assist against Buffalo, scoring at 2:59 and 17:24 of the second period to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 lead. The Capitals went 2-for-2 with the man advantage in that period, and Jordan Kyrou and Jakob Chychrun added two assists each.
Tuch has been the story of the opening weeks. He became the fastest player in franchise history to record three multigoal games with Washington, doing it in his first ten games. Ovechkin needed eleven in 2005-06.
The goaltending situation has changed. Logan Thompson picked up a lower-body injury in the 5-2 home loss to the Los Angeles Kings last Tuesday, a game Washington led 2-0, and Mitch Gibson was recalled from Hershey as cover. Charlie Lindgren started Saturday, made 18 saves, and sits at 1-1-0 with an .897 save percentage.
Lindgren’s 144th game for Washington moved him past Pat Riggin into sixth among the franchise’s goaltenders. He’s the likely starter again, with Gibson behind him, so the Capitals will need to keep the shot count down rather than rely on their goalie stealing one.
Vincent Desharnais is out four to six weeks after an appendectomy. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Justin Sourdif returned from illness on Saturday, and Washington is 4-0-0 this season when it leads after two periods.
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Philadelphia Flyers: Michkov has eight of the goals, and the rest have dried up 
Matvei Michkov scored twice in the loss to Anaheim, on three shots in under 18 minutes, and now has eight goals and ten points. On a team averaging 1.85 goals a game, that’s a large share of everything Philadelphia has produced.
Trevor Zegras also has ten points, with a team-high seven assists, and Porter Martone has five after a goal and an assist against the Ducks. Tyson Foerster scored too. Beyond that group, the scoring has been thin.
Before the Anaheim game, Philadelphia had won three in a row against Ottawa, Colorado and Buffalo, allowing one, two and one goals. Each of those wins came with three goals scored, so the run was built on keeping games tight rather than on any change in the attack.
That approach broke down against Anaheim. Joseph Woll allowed five goals on 26 shots in just under 58 minutes, an .808 save percentage for the night, and Philadelphia has given up 3.15 goals and 31.5 shots per game across the season.
The injury list is heavy on the blue line and up front. Rasmus Ristolainen is out until at least 11 November, Cam York, Owen Tippett, Travis Kinney and Nikita Grebenkin are on injured reserve, and Travis Konecny has also been listed on the injury report. Tuesday’s game against Columbus will decide who’s fresh enough to play in Washington.
Probable lineup Washington Capitals: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Philadelphia Flyers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Washington Capitals vs Philadelphia Flyers
Our prediction: Washington Capitals to win (moneyline), at 1.60 or better
Washington’s defensive numbers are the honest objection to this pick, and Carbery said as much himself. Philadelphia’s offense isn’t built to punish that, though: 1.85 goals and 22.7 shots per game, with Michkov responsible for eight of the goals and the Flyers playing for the second time in roughly 24 hours.
The Capitals scored four against Buffalo after falling two goals behind, their power play went 2-for-2 in the second period of that game, and Tuch and Strome are both producing. They also get the rest advantage, having been off since Saturday. Philadelphia’s three-game winning run depended on allowing one or two goals a night, and the Anaheim game showed how quickly that falls apart when the goaltending slips.
No sportsbook price had been posted when we wrote this preview. I’d take Washington at 1.60 or longer, and I’d pass if the number drops below that. The Flyers’ result against Columbus on Tuesday is worth checking before committing.
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