- 1 Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews brings 20 points to a defense that’s conceded 42
- 2 Seattle Kraken: 3.7 goals allowed per game over the last ten
- 3 Toronto Maple Leafs: ten players out, and Marchenko the latest concern
- 4 Free NHL Prediction: Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Matthews brings 20 points to a defense that’s conceded 42 
Auston Matthews reached 800 career points in Calgary on Monday, assisting on William Nylander’s third-period goal, and he got there in 703 games. No Maple Leaf has done it faster; Darryl Sittler needed 742. The milestone came in a 5-2 loss, though, and the defeat ended a four-game Toronto winning streak.
The Leafs move on to Climate Pledge Arena for a 10:00pm ET start on Wednesday 28 October, the first of two meetings with Seattle this season. The second isn’t until 3 March in Toronto.
Both teams arrive in roughly the same place in the standings and in very different physical shape. Toronto is 7-5-2 with 16 points, third in the Atlantic. Seattle is 7-4-1 with 15 points, third in the Pacific, and hasn’t played since Saturday, so the Kraken will have had four days off against a Toronto team that played two nights earlier.
The bigger difference is in the goal columns. Over their last ten games the Leafs have scored 4.1 goals per game and allowed 3.1. The Kraken have scored 3.6 and allowed 3.7 over the same stretch, and their season goal difference is +1, 43 scored against 42 conceded.
Seattle’s last game was the kind that sticks. Minnesota scored 26 seconds in on a Kirill Kaprizov breakaway, added three more in the second period and won 5-1 at Climate Pledge, and that defeat came after the Kraken had taken points in six of their previous seven.
No sportsbook price had been posted for this game when we wrote this preview, and prediction markets had Toronto as a narrow favourite. I think that’s the right side, and the reasons sit mostly with the Toronto forwards.
Seattle Kraken: 3.7 goals allowed per game over the last ten 
Seattle’s 6-3-1 record over the last ten looks better than the way most of those games were played. The Kraken lost 8-3 in Florida on 17 October and 4-3 in overtime in Tampa two nights earlier, then beat Detroit 4-3 in a shootout and Utah 5-3 at home before the Minnesota loss.
Seattle has conceded at least three goals in each of its last five games, wins included. The shootout against Detroit was level at 3-3 after 65 minutes, and Utah scored three in a game the Kraken still won by two.
Kaapo Kakko has driven the offense with ten points, two goals and eight assists, two of those helpers on the power play. Frederick Gaudreau has scored six goals, and Berkly Catton has points in four straight games with a goal and four assists, including the tying goal against Minnesota one second after a power play expired.
Joey Daccord made 31 saves in that 5-1 defeat, and four of the 35 shots he faced went in. Coach Lane Lambert said afterwards that his team had to generate more offense, and the fourth goal, Joel Eriksson Ek’s rebound at 13:00 of the second, finished the game as a contest.
The injury list removes a large piece of the attack. Jared McCann went on injured reserve on Saturday with a lower-body injury and isn’t expected back until January. Jacob Melanson (chest), Ryan Lindgren (upper body) and Jake O’Brien (lower body) are also out. Seattle is 3-2 at home.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Toronto Maple Leafs: ten players out, and Marchenko the latest concern 
Before Monday, Toronto had won four in a row and scored 21 goals doing it: 3-1 against San Jose, 6-2 in Columbus, 5-4 against the Rangers and 7-2 in Edmonton on Saturday. The only defeat in the five games before Calgary was a 4-1 loss to the Islanders on 17 October.
Matthews has nine goals and eleven assists this season, with three of the goals on the power play and a plus-seven rating. Nylander has six goals and seven assists over the last ten games, and his goal at 6:06 of the third on Monday cut Calgary’s lead to 3-2 before two empty-netters.
The worry is the list of absences, and it keeps growing. John Tavares (lower body), Dakota Joshua (abdomen), Max Domi (back) and Miles Wood are out among the forwards. On defense, Chris Tanev, Nick Blankenburg, William Villeneuve, Marshall Rifai and Cade Webber are unavailable, which strips out a lot of the blue line at once.
Kirill Marchenko is the newest question. He took a hit from Yegor Sharangovich in the second period in Calgary, played one more short shift and didn’t return with a lower-body injury, and coach Jim Hiller had no update afterwards. Losing him would take another scorer out of a lineup that’s already thin.
Sergei Bobrovsky made 29 saves on Monday in his 800th NHL start, and Calgary’s Matvei Gridin beat him twice, once on the power play 25 seconds into the second period. Elvis Merzlikins is listed out with a shoulder injury, so Toronto’s goaltending depth is as stretched as its defense.
Probable lineup Seattle Kraken: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Toronto Maple Leafs: Not announced at time of publication
Free NHL Prediction: Seattle Kraken vs Toronto Maple Leafs
Our prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs to win (moneyline), at 1.75 or better
Seattle has the rest advantage and the home ice, and Toronto’s injury list is long enough that I wouldn’t dismiss either. The Kraken’s weakness sits at the other end. They’ve allowed 3.7 goals per game over the last ten and McCann won’t be back until January.
Toronto has scored 4.1 per game over the same stretch and put 21 past four opponents before Monday’s loss. Matthews has 20 points in 14 games, Nylander has 13 over the last ten, and Seattle’s only answer to that kind of production has been to outscore teams in high-event games, which it did against Utah and Detroit but couldn’t against Minnesota.
No price was available when we wrote this, so we’d take the Leafs at 1.75 or longer and leave it alone if the number comes in shorter. The Marchenko update before puck drop is worth checking.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Seattle Kraken and Toronto Maple Leafs on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply