- 1 Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Jalen Johnson’s triple-double start against a winless Heat team
- 2 Atlanta Hawks: 124.7 points a game and the league’s top passing team
- 3 Miami Heat: Giannis at 28.3 points, but 0-3 and giving up 124.7 a night
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat: Jalen Johnson’s triple-double start against a winless Heat team 
Jalen Johnson is averaging 21.7 points, 10.0 rebounds and 10.0 assists through Atlanta’s first three games. Against Houston on Saturday he had 26 points and 16 assists in a 121-114 loss, the only defeat of a 2-1 start.
Miami arrives at 0-3 for a game on Wednesday 28 October, 7:00pm ET in Atlanta. The Heat traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo in the summer, and he’s averaging 28.3 points and 8.0 rebounds, but the team around him ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 29th in defensive efficiency.
Both teams play Monday: Atlanta in Houston, Miami at home against Dallas. Neither is on a back-to-back for this game, though the Hawks host Cleveland on Thursday, making Wednesday the first half of a back-to-back for them.
Last season’s series went 3-1 to Miami, including 126-111 and 128-97 wins in Atlanta. The Hawks’ only win was 127-115 in Miami on 3 February, when Johnson posted a triple-double. Those were different rosters, with no Antetokounmpo in Miami and no Lu Dort in Atlanta.
Prices hadn’t been posted when we wrote this. We see Atlanta as the better side by a clear margin on this season’s evidence, and we expect the market to agree.
Atlanta Hawks: 124.7 points a game and the league’s top passing team 
Atlanta ranks 4th in scoring at 124.7 points per game, 8th in points allowed at 109.0, and first in total assists. The Hawks won 132-125 in Orlando on opening night, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker hitting seven threes, then beat Charlotte 128-81 two nights later. The 47-point margin in Charlotte came on the road, with the Hornets held to 81 points on their own floor.
Johnson runs everything. He had 39 points, 21 rebounds and 14 assists across the first two games before the 26-and-16 night against Houston. Alexander-Walker is averaging 21.0, Aaron Wiggins 17.0, Dyson Daniels and CJ McCollum 16.3 each, and Lu Dort 8.0.
Daniels has added a defensive edge, with 12 steals in the first two games. That matters against a Heat team that relies on Antetokounmpo handling the ball as a point forward, since Atlanta can send help early and trust its guards to jump passing lanes.
The weakness showed up against Houston. Atlanta went 13 of 49 from three and averages 14.7 turnovers, and a team that leans this heavily on ball movement can give games away when the shots don’t fall. Kevin Durant scored 22 for the Rockets that night.
Mouhamed Gueye is out with a foot injury and Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a knee injury. Neither is a starter, so Atlanta’s top seven is intact heading into Wednesday.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Miami Heat: Giannis at 28.3 points, but 0-3 and giving up 124.7 a night 
Miami opened with a 131-106 home loss to Minnesota, then lost 128-111 to Detroit two nights later. Antetokounmpo scored 36 points with 12 rebounds and five assists against the Pistons, but the Heat shot 38.2% from the field and 29.4% from three, and Bam Adebayo managed four points in foul trouble.
The third loss came in Charlotte on Saturday, 115-110. Davion Mitchell had 22 points and 10 assists and Adebayo bounced back with 20 points and eight rebounds, while Antetokounmpo scored 14 and fouled out in 25 minutes.
The numbers behind the record are poor at both ends. The Heat have allowed 131, 128 and 115 points, and they rank 18th in pace, so the volume isn’t coming from a fast tempo. Opponents are scoring efficiently against them in the half court.
Mitchell is averaging 17.0 points and 8.7 assists, Adebayo 13.0, Bobby Portis 10.3 and Klay Thompson 10.0. Mitchell’s 22 in Charlotte is the highest total by anyone other than Antetokounmpo in the games we have box scores for.
Antetokounmpo’s role has changed too. He’s been used as a point forward, bringing the ball up and initiating the offense, which puts much of the creation load on one player. Against Detroit that produced 36 points and a 17-point loss, and in Charlotte it produced six fouls in 25 minutes.
Miami has no injuries reported, which cuts both ways. Antetokounmpo, Adebayo and Thompson have all been available, and the Heat are still winless. Monday’s home game against a Dallas team that may be without Cooper Flagg is their best chance yet to get off the mark before travelling to Atlanta.
Probable lineup Atlanta Hawks: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Miami Heat: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat
Our prediction: Atlanta Hawks to win
We’re taking the Hawks at home. They score 124.7 points a game, they lead the league in assists, and they face a defense ranked 29th in efficiency that has given up an average of 124.7 itself. Johnson’s passing against a Heat team that funnels everything through one player is the matchup we like most. No price was posted at the time of writing, and we’d want 1.45 or longer.
The risk is Antetokounmpo. He scored 36 against Detroit, and one night of efficient shooting around him would make Miami competitive. Last season’s 3-1 series edge also belongs to the Heat, even if the rosters have changed.
Atlanta’s 13-of-49 night against Houston was its worst shooting game and it still lost by only seven to an unbeaten team. Over three games, the Hawks have done more things well than Miami has, and we expect that to show at home.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply