- 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Booker’s 43 runs into the NBA’s best defense
- 2 Oklahoma City Thunder: 22 forced turnovers and two fast-break points allowed against Denver
- 3 Phoenix Suns: 58% shooting against Golden State, 36% in Portland
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns: Booker’s 43 runs into the NBA’s best defense 
Devin Booker scored 43 points against Golden State on Saturday, going 17 of 25 from the field and 7 of 8 from the line. It was a franchise record for a home opener, and it gave Phoenix its first win of the season, 131-122, three nights after a 124-83 loss in Portland.
On Monday 26 October Booker takes that form to Paycom Center (8:00pm ET) against a far tougher opponent. Oklahoma City has led the NBA in defensive efficiency in each of the last two seasons, won a league-best 64 games last year and opened this one 2-0 before Sunday’s home game against the Clippers.
That Sunday game is the scheduling detail that matters. The Thunder host LA at 7:00pm ET on Sunday and the Suns 25 hours later, so Monday is the second night of a back-to-back for Oklahoma City. Phoenix last played on Saturday night and has a full day off.
Golden State dressed only 11 players on Saturday and was without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis and Brandin Podziemski. Booker’s night was real, but so was the lack of resistance in front of him.
Phoenix has been out-rebounded in both games, 56-39 in Portland and 44-42 by a short-handed Warriors roster, while Oklahoma City just held Denver to 38% shooting. I’d expect Monday’s Suns offense to look a lot more like the Portland version than the Golden State one.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 22 forced turnovers and two fast-break points allowed against Denver 
Thursday’s 96-84 win over the Nuggets showed what this defense does to good teams. Oklahoma City held Denver to 38% shooting, limited Nikola Jokic to 13 points on 5-of-19, forced 22 turnovers and gave up two fast-break points all night. The Thunder outscored Denver by 16 after halftime and led by as many as 17.
Jalen Williams led the scoring with 21 points on 7-of-15. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, had 17 and went 3 of 11 from three, but still finished with a game-high +21. Chet Holmgren added 12 points and 17 rebounds.
Gilgeous-Alexander was sharper in the opener, scoring 32 in a 116-104 win in San Antonio, Oklahoma City’s first game against the Spurs since losing Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals to them. Jared McCain made 6 of 8 threes for 20 points, and the Thunder led 65-44 at halftime after winning the second quarter 31-16.
The one wobble came straight after the break in that game. San Antonio opened the second half on a 23-9 run and got within single digits before Gilgeous-Alexander and McCain combined for 25 second-half points to close it out. Through two games, that’s the only stretch in which the defense has looked ordinary.
Several rotation players left in the summer, and the Thunder used the 12th pick on Michigan center Aday Mara. A back-to-back tests that depth, but Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein still give them two bigs who rebound, which is exactly where Phoenix has struggled.
Oklahoma City ranks only 18th in tempo, so it doesn’t need to run Phoenix off the floor. The Thunder want the Suns in the half court, where their length makes every shot harder than the one Booker was getting on Saturday.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Phoenix Suns: 58% shooting against Golden State, 36% in Portland 
Two games have produced two different Phoenix teams. In Portland on opening night the Suns trailed 43-12 after the first quarter and by 33 at halftime, shot 36% from the field, made six threes and lost by 41. Booker scored 23 on 7 of 13 and nobody else got going.
Against Golden State they shot 58.1%, made 50 field goals with 33 assists and outscored the Warriors 27-7 in transition. Even then it took a third quarter of 16-of-20 shooting, including 6 of 8 from three, to pull clear after a first quarter in which Phoenix went 1 for 12 from deep.
Booker has had some help on the wings. Miles Bridges had 16 points and seven rebounds on Saturday, Dillon Brooks scored 15 and Collin Gillespie added 11 points and nine assists while finishing +16. Luke Kennard, questionable before the Portland game, hit 3 of 5 threes off the bench.
The frontcourt is where Jordan Ott’s team is thin. Mark Williams had surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder in September and is out for months, and Oso Ighodaro is also out. Khaman Maluach led the team with six rebounds in Portland, where the Suns finished with 39 boards to the Trail Blazers’ 56.
Golden State, without most of its regular bigs, still scored 26 second-chance points on Saturday with Graham Ike grabbing five offensive rebounds. Holmgren and Hartenstein are a much bigger problem than anything the Warriors had available.
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Not announced at time of publication (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren expected)
Probable lineup Phoenix Suns: Not announced at time of publication (Devin Booker, Miles Bridges, Dillon Brooks and Collin Gillespie expected)
Free NBA Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns
Our prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder to win by 11 points or more
Oklahoma City has won both of its games by exactly 12 points, against San Antonio and Denver. Phoenix’s one good night came against an 11-man Warriors roster, and the Suns have lost the rebounding count in both games they’ve played.
I’m happy to take the Thunder by 11 or more, even on the second night of a back-to-back. Shooting comes and goes from one night to the next, and this defense held Jokic to 13 points four days ago, so I’m trusting the part of Oklahoma City’s game that doesn’t depend on legs.
The risk is Booker repeating Saturday, and a 43-point night from him would keep any game close. The handicap line wasn’t out at the time of writing, and I’d want a price of at least 1.45 on the margin.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Oklahoma City Thunder and Phoenix Suns on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply