- 1 Estoril vs Moreirense: a new coach, a winless side and Begraoui on the doubtful list
- 2 Estoril: five defeats in six, four of them by a single goal
- 3 Moreirense: 15 goals conceded, but unbeaten in six against Estoril
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Estoril vs Moreirense
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Estoril vs Moreirense: a new coach, a winless side and Begraoui on the doubtful list 
Yanis Begraoui is a doubt for Sunday, and he’s the only Estoril player with more than one league goal this season. Without him, Leandro Pires takes charge of his first league game with a side that has scored three times in its last six.
Vasco Matos was dismissed on 15 October. He lasted eight league games, drew two, lost six and left Estoril bottom of the table on two points, the only club in the division still waiting for a win.
Moreirense visit the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota on Sunday 25 October, with kick-off at 15:30 UK time. They’re 12th on eight points, six clear of their hosts, although they arrive on the back of two straight defeats in all competitions.
The home side’s injury list runs well past Begraoui. Xeka hasn’t played since he was hurt against Benfica on 31 August, Fabrício Garcia is out, Stélios Andreou is doubtful and Israel Salazar is still working his way back from the cruciate ligament tear he suffered in August 2025. Ferro returns from suspension, and only Holsgrove and Sierra have a higher average match rating in the squad this season.
The bookmakers still have Estoril as 1.95 favourites. I find that hard to square with the head-to-head: Estoril haven’t beaten Moreirense in six meetings, with three defeats and three draws since a 1-0 win in May 2022.
Estoril: five defeats in six, four of them by a single goal 
Estoril’s last six league games read like this: a 2-0 home defeat by Rio Ave, 2-1 at Benfica, 0-0 with Arouca, 1-0 at Braga, 2-1 at home to Casa Pia and 2-1 at Académico de Viseu on 10 October. That’s three goals scored, nine conceded and one point.
Four of the five defeats in that run were by one goal. Estoril have kept most of these games close and still come away with nothing, and the problem looks to sit at the top end of the pitch rather than in their own box.
Begraoui has two of the side’s league goals, with Rafik Guitane and Sánchez on one each. Guitane also scored the 89th-minute equaliser in last Sunday’s 1-1 cup tie with Salgueiros, so he’s the natural candidate to carry the attack if Begraoui misses out.
Holsgrove has the best average rating in the squad at 7.11 and should start alongside Robin in the two in front of the back four. Sierra sits second on 6.83, with Ferro on 6.8.
Sunday is Pires’s first league game in charge, ten days after Matos left. With Xeka, Garcia and Salazar all unavailable, he has few senior options to change the midfield or the attack.
The expected shape is a 4-2-3-1, with Lacximicant leading the line and Guitane, Carvalho and Omerovic behind him. Robles keeps goal behind a back four of Sánchez, Tsoungui, Ferro and Jurisic.
Twelve goals conceded in eight games isn’t the record of a side being overrun. Moreirense have let in three more than that.
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Moreirense: 15 goals conceded, but unbeaten in six against Estoril 
Moreirense have let in 15 league goals, the fourth-highest total in the division, and the 4-0 home defeat by Benfica accounts for a good chunk of that. They’ve scored eight.
Their results have swung from week to week. They won 1-0 at Casa Pia, lost 2-1 at Porto, beat Marítimo 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Vitória de Guimarães and then lost 1-0 at home to Gil Vicente on 8 October.
Both of their league wins came against Casa Pia and Marítimo, and they’ve taken one point from their last two league outings.
The cup made things worse. Rodrigo Pinho scored after three minutes for AVS in the third round, Moreirense lost 1-0, and Maracás was sent off just before half-time. He’s suspended for Sunday, with Kevyn Monteiro expected to step in at centre-back.
Alexandre Duville-Parsemain is a doubt for a third straight game after getting hurt on Martinique duty against Suriname in September. He has a goal and an assist in the league, so his absence takes away one of the few players producing in the final third.
Gilberto Batista, who has started all eight league games, is expected back in the side. Andrade has the squad’s best average rating at 7.02 and should play on the right of the three behind Vonic, with Mendonça and Bondoso alongside him.
Vasco Costa’s side have had the better of this fixture lately. Since Estoril’s 1-0 win in May 2022, the last six meetings have produced three Moreirense wins and three draws.
Probable lineup Estoril: Robles; Sánchez, Tsoungui, Ferro, Jurisic; Holsgrove, Robin; Guitane, Carvalho, Omerovic; Lacximicant
Probable lineup Moreirense: Ferreira; Kiko, Monteiro, Batista, Pinto; Liberato, John; Andrade, Mendonça, Bondoso; Vonic
Free Football Prediction: Estoril vs Moreirense
Our prediction: Moreirense or draw (double chance X2) at 1.80
Estoril are 1.95 favourites with no win in eight league games, Begraoui a doubt and three goals from their last six, so I’d take Moreirense on the double chance instead. They haven’t lost to Estoril in six meetings, and the 1.80 price also covers the draw that three of those games ended in.
There’s a case against it. Moreirense have lost their last two, they’ve conceded 15 in the league, and their record at this ground since February 2011 shows five defeats in 11 visits. A first league game under a new coach can also lift a home side for 90 minutes.
I still think the bigger problem belongs to Estoril’s attack. If they score once, Moreirense need one goal in reply to land this bet, and they’ve found the net in four of their last six league games.
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