- 1 Stoke City vs Bristol City: six wins from eight against one win from six
- 2 Stoke City: one draw all season and the same eleven three games running
- 3 Bristol City: three 1-0 home defeats and £9m of forwards still to deliver
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Stoke City vs Bristol City
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stoke City vs Bristol City: six wins from eight against one win from six 
The last time Bristol City came to the bet365 Stadium, they lost 5-1. That was on 1 November 2025, and it wasn’t a one-off: Stoke’s two previous home games against them finished 2-2 in October 2024 and 4-0 in May 2024.
Mark Robins’s side go into Saturday’s Championship game, Saturday 24 October at 15:00 UK time, sixth in the table. They’ve won six of their last eight league matches, and the only defeat in that run came against Middlesbrough, 3-2, to a goal in stoppage time.
Bristol City are 16th. They’ve won once in six league games and lost three of their last four at Ashton Gate, all of them 1-0, against Lincoln, Blackburn and Sheffield United.
Stoke finished 17th last season. A win here could lift them to within a point of Swansea at the top, and Swansea are the only side in the division with more wins than Robins’s team.
The home win is priced at 2.30, the draw at 3.20 and Bristol City at 3.00. Given what each side has done since the start of September, I’d have Stoke shorter than that.
James Bell referees the gameweek 12 fixture. Stoke have drawn once in 11 league games, and only Norwich have drawn fewer.
Stoke City: one draw all season and the same eleven three games running
Robins has stopped tinkering. Stoke have named the same starting eleven for three matches in a row, and 87% of the side has stayed the same across the last six.
The results back him up. A 2-1 win at Watford, a 2-1 home win over Sheffield United and a 2-1 win at Bolton came before the Middlesbrough defeat, and last weekend they won 1-0 at Derby.
That’s a team that settles games by a single goal. Four of the last five wins were by one, and the only draw of the season was a 1-1 at Cardiff at the start of this run.
Sam Gallagher and Ato Ampah are missing, and Cresswell (knee) and Ingelsson (muscle) are also listed as out. None of the four has been part of the eleven that’s carried this run.
Eric Junior Bocat is the doubt that matters. He came off before half-time at Pride Park, and if he isn’t fit, Robins has to break up the side for the first time in four games.
Johansson has started the last four meetings with Bristol City in goal. In the last three of them at home, Stoke scored 11 times and conceded three.
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Bristol City: three 1-0 home defeats and £9m of forwards still to deliver 
Michael Skubala arrived from Lincoln after taking them up from League One. Eleven games into his first Championship season at Ashton Gate, Bristol City have five fewer points than at the same stage last year, seven fewer goals and three more defeats.
Goals are where it’s gone wrong. They’ve scored three in their last six league matches: one in a 4-1 defeat at Southampton, one to beat Watford 1-0 and one in a 1-1 draw at Charlton.
The summer spending was meant to fix that. The club reportedly paid £9m for Dominic Ballard and Lorent Tolaj, both from League One, and Tolaj is listed as out with a knock.
Skubala switched to a back three after a 4-1 defeat at Wolves at the end of August. It has made them tighter, yet three of their last four home games still ended in 1-0 defeats.
Luke McNally’s return is the one piece of good news. He’s back after an injury that kept him out from January 2025 and should start at the heart of the defence, with Dickie (knee) and Noah Eile (illness) unavailable.
The head-to-head gives them something to cling to. Bristol City have won nine of the 17 meetings to Stoke’s six, including 2-0 at Ashton Gate on 2 May. None of the last three at Stoke went their way.
Probable lineup Stoke City: Johansson; Wilmot, Graham, Lawal; Johnson, Galbraith, Soumaré, Bocat; McGlynn; Cissé, Boženík
Probable lineup Bristol City: Tickle; Cardines, Eissat, McNally, Atkinson, Pring; Horvat, Randell, Knight; Adebayo, Ballard
Free Football Prediction: Stoke City vs Bristol City
Our prediction: Stoke City to win at 2.30
I’d back Stoke. Six wins in eight, an unchanged side, and a home record against this opponent that reads 5-1, 2-2 and 4-0 over the last three visits.
Bristol City’s case rests on McNally and a back three that has tightened them up. It hasn’t stopped them losing at home, and three goals in six games is a poor return against a Stoke side that conceded once or not at all in each of its last four wins.
Bocat’s fitness is the only real doubt on the home side. Even without him, 2.30 on the home win is the price to take, with Stoke by a single goal the likeliest way it plays out.
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