- 1 Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe: Laporte banned, Guruzeta gone for the season, and three goalless draws in a row
- 2 Athletic Bilbao: one league goal in four games and no Laporte at the back
- 3 Getafe: no away win this season, and Djené suspended after the Rayo draw
- 4 Free La Liga Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe: Laporte banned, Guruzeta gone for the season, and three goalless draws in a row 
Aymeric Laporte won’t play at San Mamés on Sunday. The centre-back was sent off in Athletic Bilbao’s 3-1 defeat at Levante on Wednesday and serves a one-match ban, and he joins a list of absentees that already includes Gorka Guruzeta, who has a serious knee ligament injury and is expected to miss the rest of the season.
Oihan Sancet and Unai Egiluz are also injured, and Álvaro Djaló is being assessed after an illness. For a side that has scored so rarely this autumn, losing Guruzeta and Sancet removes two of the players most likely to break a game open, and it leaves the Williams brothers carrying the attack.
Athletic are 13th with nine points from eight games, two wins, three draws and three defeats. Their last league win was a 3-0 over Atlético Madrid in early September, and since then they’ve drawn 0-0 with Alavés, Rayo Vallecano and Valencia in successive games before losing at Levante. That’s one goal in four league matches.
Getafe are two places lower in 15th, also on nine points but from nine games. They finished seventh last season and haven’t come close to that level yet, and on Thursday they lost 5-2 at home to Lugano in the Conference League, which leaves them with a point from two European games. Kick-off at San Mamés is at 1pm UK time.
The fixture has a long history of tight games. In 34 meetings, 16 have been drawn, and only 11 have finished with more than two goals. Getafe won both league games last season, 1-0 at San Mamés in October 2025 and 2-0 at home in April, while Athletic won 2-0 in Madrid in May 2025.
Athletic Bilbao: one league goal in four games and no Laporte at the back 
Athletic finished 12th last season and this one has started in a similar way. The 3-0 win over Atlético suggested a team capable of beating anyone at San Mamés, but three straight goalless draws came later, and Wednesday’s trip to Levante ended with a 3-1 defeat and ten men on the pitch.
The home numbers are better than the away ones. Over their last ten games in all competitions, Athletic have conceded 1.00 goal per game at San Mamés and kept clean sheets in half of their home matches. Their expected goals against at home in that sample is 0.82 per game, which is a fair reflection of how few chances opponents create there.
The attack is the concern. Athletic have scored 1.25 goals per home game in that run, and with Guruzeta and Sancet both out, the burden falls on Iñaki Williams through the middle and Nico Williams out wide. Both came off the bench at Levante and are expected to start, with Berenguer on the other flank and Navarro behind the striker.
Laporte’s suspension means a reshuffle at the back. Paredes and Álvarez are the likely centre-back pairing, with Yuri Berchiche and Rincón at full-back and Unai Simón in goal. Jauregizar and Ruiz de Galarreta should sit in front of them, a midfield built to protect the back four rather than create.
A side this short of goals needs its defence to hold. San Mamés has been a ground where Athletic concede little, and Getafe’s away record is poor enough that a single goal might decide it.
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Getafe: no away win this season, and Djené suspended after the Rayo draw 
Getafe haven’t won away from home this season. Across their last ten matches in all competitions, they’ve taken 0.20 points per game on the road, scored 0.40 goals per away game and failed to score in 60 per cent of those away fixtures. Every win in that run came at home.
The league results have been close but rarely positive. They drew 1-1 at home to Celta Vigo, 1-1 with Deportivo and 1-1 with Rayo Vallecano last time out, and lost 1-0 at Betis and 3-0 to Barcelona. The Rayo draw came after Djené Dakonam was sent off, and his suspension means Abdel Abqar should come into the back line.
Thursday’s 5-2 defeat by Lugano will worry the coaching staff more than any league result. Getafe had already drawn 1-1 at Universitatea Craiova in their first Conference League game, and conceding five at home to the Swiss leaders suggests a defence that’s far less reliable than the one that carried them to seventh last season.
Several regulars are expected back for Sunday. Martín Satriano, Enes Ünal, Ramón Terrats and Nemanja Gudelj should all return to the starting line-up after being rotated for Lugano, and Dani Carvajal is expected to start again at right-back. There are no new injury concerns.
Getafe’s recent record in this fixture is strong, with only two defeats in the last ten meetings and six draws. Their away form this season is the opposite, and on Sunday the recent head-to-head matters less to me than the 0.40 goals per away game.
Probable lineup Athletic Bilbao: Simón; Rincón, Álvarez, Paredes, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; Berenguer, Navarro, N. Williams; I. Williams
Probable lineup Getafe: Soria; Carvajal, Abqar, Valou, Mojica; Femenía, Gudelj, Martín, Satriano; Terrats, Ünal
Free La Liga Prediction: Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals at 1.61
Athletic have scored one league goal in their last four games and drawn three of them 0-0. Getafe score 0.40 goals per away game and have failed to score in most of their trips this season. In 34 meetings between these clubs, only 11 have produced more than two goals, and all of the last five finished with two goals or fewer.
The absences push the total down further. Athletic are without Guruzeta, Sancet and Laporte, so they lose their main striker, their most creative midfielder and their most experienced defender, while Getafe’s attack has managed only a handful of league goals all season. A 1-0 or a 1-1 looks far more likely than anything above two goals.
The risk is Getafe’s defence, which conceded five to Lugano on Thursday, and Athletic’s own collapse at Levante, where they conceded three. Both of those games were played with rotated or reduced teams, though, and with Getafe’s regulars returning and Athletic at home, where they concede a goal a game, I’d expect a much tighter afternoon.
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