- 1 Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: Schuster’s perfect home record against seven games without beating Bayern
- 2 Freiburg: five home wins from five, but no goals from Matanovic in four games
- 3 Bayern Munich: 13 goals in their last two home league games, three draws in four overall
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: Schuster’s perfect home record against seven games without beating Bayern 
Monaco beat Freiburg 3-0 in the Conference League on Thursday night, and it was the first time this season that Julian Schuster’s side had finished a game without scoring. It came four days after they’d led at Bayer Leverkusen from the 14th minute and still lost 2-1, so the team that sat top of the Bundesliga a fortnight ago now goes into Sunday on the back of two straight defeats.
The league table hasn’t caught up with that slide yet. Bayern Munich are first on 14 points from six games, with four wins, two draws and a goal difference of +17. Freiburg are third on 13, with four wins, a draw and that defeat at the BayArena, and Borussia Dortmund sit between them on goal difference only. Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, which means Bayern could arrive at the Europa-Park Stadion in second place.
Kick-off is at 4:30pm UK time on Sunday. Freiburg have won all five home games they’ve played under Schuster this season, across league and Europe, and that’s the strongest argument anyone can make for the hosts. They beat Borussia Monchengladbach 5-0 there on 12 September, Schalke 2-1 on 11 October and Jablonec 3-2 in the Conference League four days later.
The head-to-head points firmly the other way. Freiburg haven’t beaten Bayern in seven attempts and have lost the last four meetings, including a 6-2 thrashing in Munich in November 2025 and a 3-2 home defeat on 4 April this year. Even the closest of those recent games, a 2-1 Bayern win in Freiburg in January 2025, ended with the visitors taking the points.
What makes this fixture harder to read than the odds suggest is Bayern’s own week. Vincent Kompany’s side drew 2-2 with Arsenal on Wednesday, and it was their third draw in four games across all competitions. They’d also drawn 3-3 at Viking in Norway and 2-2 at Augsburg before the 6-1 rout of RB Leipzig on 17 October, and they’ve done it with a squad that’s missing several first-choice attackers.
Freiburg: five home wins from five, but no goals from Matanovic in four games 
Freiburg’s season has been built on scoring. They’ve found the net at least twice in eight of their games so far, and their league goal difference stands at +9 after six matches. The 5-0 win over Gladbach and the 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September are the two results that best show how open they’re willing to play.
That approach has a cost. Freiburg have conceded twice or more in four games, and at Leverkusen an early lead turned into a 2-1 defeat. Monaco added three more on Thursday, so Schuster’s back four has let in five goals in its last two matches.
Igor Matanovic is the striker expected to lead the line again, but he hasn’t scored in his last four club appearances. That puts more of the attacking load on the wide men, Beste and Scherhant, who’ll be running at Bayern’s full-backs.
The probable midfield pairing of Eggestein and Engelhardt will have to deal with a Bayern side that dominates the ball. Ginter and Lienhart should start in central defence, with Treu and Makengo at full-back. There’s some uncertainty over Suzuki, who appears on at least one absence list this week, so the number ten role could change on the day.
The home record is real, and the crowd will matter. Still, the strongest side they’ve faced this month, Leverkusen, beat them, and Monaco did the same three days ago. Bayern are a different level of opposition to Schalke or Jablonec.
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Bayern Munich: 13 goals in their last two home league games, three draws in four overall 
Bayern’s two most recent home league games ended 7-0 against Union Berlin and 6-1 against RB Leipzig, and those results explain why their goal difference is so far ahead of everyone else’s. Away from Munich it’s been tighter: a 2-1 win at Elversberg on 13 September and a 2-2 draw at Augsburg on 10 October are their last two league trips.
Wednesday’s draw with Arsenal followed the same uneven script. Eberechi Eze put Arsenal ahead, Alphonso Davies equalised from Harry Kane’s pass, and Kane scored a second-half penalty after a handball by Jurrien Timber. Declan Rice levelled with eight minutes left, which means Bayern have now conceded at least twice in three of their last four matches.
The absences are the part of this team sheet I’d watch most closely. Michael Olise, Joshua Kimmich and Jamal Musiala all missed the Arsenal game, Kimmich because of a family bereavement, and Luis Diaz was hurt during it. Kimmich hasn’t been ruled out for Sunday and Olise is named in the probable lineup, while Musiala still appears on the absence list.
Kane remains the reference point. He’s scored in ten consecutive Champions League games and could be named Ballon d’Or winner on Monday, and Freiburg have no obvious way of stopping a striker who drops deep to create as often as he finishes. Gnabry and Davies, who may start in a wide attacking role, give Bayern pace on both flanks if Diaz isn’t fit.
Kompany’s side do concede chances. Viking scored three against them in Norway, Augsburg scored twice and Arsenal scored twice in Munich, so a Freiburg team that likes to push numbers forward will create openings. The question is whether Freiburg can defend the spaces they leave behind against an attack that scored 13 times in its last two Bundesliga home games.
Probable lineup Freiburg: Backhaus; Treu, Ginter, Lienhart, Makengo; Eggestein, Engelhardt; Beste, Suzuki, Scherhant; Matanovic
Probable lineup Bayern Munich: Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Brown; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Gnabry, Davies; Kane
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Freiburg vs Bayern Munich
Our prediction: Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score
A straight Bayern win is priced between 1.28 and 1.35, and both teams to score sits at around 1.37 on its own. Neither price is worth taking alone, but the two outcomes fit together well here. Freiburg have scored at least twice in eight games and have won every home match under Schuster this season, while Bayern have conceded in each of their last four games and twice in three of them.
The Bayern side of the bet rests on the head-to-head and on quality. Freiburg have lost four in a row against them and haven’t beaten them in seven, and the last three meetings produced 6-2, 3-2 and 2-1 scorelines in Bayern’s favour, each one with Freiburg scoring. Freiburg’s own week, a late collapse at Leverkusen followed by a 3-0 defeat in Monaco, doesn’t suggest a defence ready to keep Kane quiet.
The risk is Bayern’s habit of drawing away from home, which has cost them points at Augsburg and in Norway this month. I don’t think Freiburg, with their defence leaking five goals in two games, are set up to hold on for a point in the way Augsburg did. Bayern should score more than the hosts, and Freiburg should find a goal at home along the way.
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